2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

[pmbug]

Contagion fears rising...

 

[Goldhedge]

Interesting...



The Chinese #Gold jewelry industry trolls, the Chinese #Gold and #Silver naked shorts, and Western Media are all very aggressive towards the new Chinese government #Gold tax laws.

They all have something to hide. They all lie for their own monetary gains at the expense of their customers/counterparties/subscribers.

 

[pmbug]

It's the same thing that happens everywhere all the time. Something happens and folks (MSM, social media KOLs, etc.) report on it using selective interpretations or omissions of fact to enforce their preferred narrative.

 

[Goldhedge]

 

[pmbug]

 

[Voodoo]

Process as explained by
@SilverHaas

JPM "quant" fund borrows 50.000 shares, sell them short
JPM metals desk buys 50.000 shares at that same exact time from their "quant" fund
JPM metals desk redeems said 50.000 shares for PHYSICAL METAL
JPM metals desk borrows 50.000 shares and sell them short
JPM "quant" fund buys 50.000 shares at that same exact time from their metals desk, covers short.
End result is what matters:
Same amount of shares in SLV fund
JPM took silver out
JPM has a short

Building a large short position in the process. Then when it gets to big they create a Swap contract to deliver fake shares.

 

[Voodoo]

Well, I still don't understand, but that's ok. The Trust can buy an unlimited amount of silver, it is not limited, and it can and does issue new units of the trust periodically. Quoting one of their prospectus documents, emphasis mine:

I don't know why someone would be trying to manipulate the Trust to prevent it from buying silver, when they can issue new units and then buy more silver any time they want. Maybe someone is trying to manipulate the Trust to gain buy and sell advantages for day trading - that could be possible.

While I noticed that there was a slight premium as of end of last month, the trust has had very few instances of significant premium, and has had no significant long-term premium that I can observe (on a plot) to NAV since early in its history (2010-2012).

It's got a Huge amount of the real thing (assumed anyway). That makes it a giant target when metal is needed so badly. There are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO many scammy games in the stock market that its unreasonably to think the bankers haven't figured this one out to at least borrow some of this metal.

 

[Voodoo]

Rur roh scooby, What ya doing Crypto? BItcoin nearing a very important support level.

 

[pmbug]

BTC is just following the stock market AFAIK.

 

[Voodoo]

Stocks are UP again, what else is new in the bubble market.

 

[Voodoo]

But there are VERY real signs of stress in the SOFR markets.

 

[nickndfl]

Mr. Slammy.moved from Fridays to Tuesdays. Keep your eyes open. Experts are saying gold needs to get down to the 200-day before it makes the next leg higher. I hope they are wrong, but were right about the big takedown last.month.

 

[pmbug]

Tuesdays are now the days when Mr. Slammy takes his vitamins.

 

[Goldhedge]

Physical #Gold demand at the Shanghai #Gold Exchange (SGE) will explode higher. Here is why:

1) Chinese ETFs and Funds will focus their physical #Gold buying at the SGE to enjoy 13% VAT EXEMPTION.

2) Chinese citizens will focus all their physical #Gold bars buying via direct SGE investment standard #Gold bars buying & withdraws or via Chinese state-owned commercial banks investment standard #Gold bars buying & withdraws to enjoy 13% VAT EXEMPTION.

3) A big portion of Chinese citizens will buy VAT EXEMPT Chinese state-owned commercial banks investment standard #Gold bars and bring them to goldsmiths to make #Gold jewelry out of them. This is 13% cheaper than non-investment #Gold jewelry that they buy from #Gold jewelry stores since the #Gold jewelry stores will have 13% VAT rolled into their #Gold jewelry products.

4) Although Chinese #Gold recycling companies don’t need to pay VAT when they buy #Gold back from Chinese citizens, they will need to remit 13% VAT (to the Chinese tax authorities) if they sell that #Gold to any other businesses or individuals directly (No Special VAT invoice SVI for VAT deduction).

So #Gold recycling companies must sell the recycled #Gold back at the SGE to enjoy 13% VAT exemption.

Chinese #Gold recycling companies must become SGE members (if they are not already) to enjoy 13% VAT exemption by selling their recycled #Gold to their SGE member customers via the SGE.

 

[pmbug]

^^^

Questions/comments point by point:

1) Are ETFs and funds currently trading gold in venues outside of the SGE? If so, how large are these funds? How much gold demand does this represent heading towards the SGE?

2) Citizen market demand (both buy/sell) moving to SGE will be huge for improving the liquidity of the exchange which will support China's larger ambition for using the exchange to support an RMB-gold international payment rail.

3) How large is the Chinese gold jewelry demand? This would appear to be a one way street pulling gold out of the SGE exchange.

4) This should provide an opposing one way street returning gold back to the exchange. How does the Chinese gold recycling market compare (size/volume wise) to the jewelry industry's gold demand?

All of this additional SGE liquidity sounds great, but I wonder if China, in their efforts to expand SGE usage internationally, are going to improve transparency of SGE operations. Currently, the SGE reports on silver stock flows weekly, but they don't report on gold stock. They seem to have an LBMA black hole model on reporting. I'm thinking that's going to have to change at some point to further their internationalization goals.

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

Silver Rip Currents

The spot price of silver has been pretty calm the last few days, gradually deflating a bit each day. One might think all is calm in the silver ocean, but the real violence lies below the surface in the rip currents:

- Indian futures are in backwardation signalling strong demand for immediate delivery of physical silver. As of the time I'm composing this post, Dec SILVER on the MCX is $51.10/ozt and Nov SILVERM on the MCX is $51.82/ozt. It looks like the LBMA OTC markets have not quite satisfied Indian demand yet.

- After touching zero about a week ago, the EFP spread (COMEX futures minus LBMA OTC spot) is back in negative territory - currently about -$.034 at the moment (it was -$0.51 two days ago). This happens when physical silver supply in London is tight/strained. A large enough negative EFP spread encourages arbitrage traders to buy silver from the COMEX and sell it in London/LBMA (which means shipping it there).

- China is imposing export controls/restrictions on silver. After the SFE and SGE both saw massive drawdowns on their silver vault stock over the entire month of October (SFE lost 17.2M ozt / 536.1 metric tons and SGE lost 11M ozt / 342 metric tons), China appears to be closing the door on potential exports of SFE/SGE silver to London. As the SGE is again trading at a premium to LBMA spot, the SGE might actually be encouraging arbitrage traders to buy LBMA silver and send it to China (SGE).

- SLV short interest has spiked to a new all time high. Since October 15, when the LBMA was having serious trouble with physical silver supply, we have observed 28M ozt (870.7 metric tons) of silver leave the SLV vault stock. I believe that most of that silver was redeemed by authorized participants (bullion banks) with leased/borrowed shares. The all time high short interest would seem to support that conclusion. If this is correct, the leased/borrowed shares will need to be paid back and there may end up being a bit of a short squeeze in SLV shares.

Bottom Line

All signs point towards London/LBMA needing more silver to satisfy demand for physical silver from India. It looks like China is closing the door to helping out the LBMA, so London it going to have to raid the COMEX even harder to get what it needs. SLV is our indirect canary to stress in the LBMA silver market and it is starting to show signs of stress.



EFP Spreads


China silver export controls/restrictions


SLV short interest spiking

 

[Goldhedge]

Kind of looks as if the long-standing veil has been removed from the pricing mechanism for PM's...

They let off some steam in the pressure cooker and the 'new' price has set in.

Kind of looks as if we'll hang out +/- for a few months until the new support is reached.

All bets are off if someone lights up a nuclear candle though....

 

[pmbug]

I don't think it percolates that long. Stress is already building (with silver at least).

 

[Voodoo]

The way this stress has been building but they keep hiding it all.... this is a catastrophic and epic explosion. I just hope this isn't the Deathstar with an invisible raygun.

 

[Goldhedge]

SECRET SILVER REFINERY SHORTAGE EXPOSED! Dealer Reveals Shocking Reason NO ONE KNOWS ABOUT!​

In this video my bullion dealer Silver Dave of Local Silver Mint reveals the shocking silver refinery shortage that no one is talking about! Why are silver refineries refusing 90% silver, sterling silver, and other alloyed silver? How does the military's need for silver factor in? And what does this silver shortage mean to the future price of silver? Watch as Silver Dave and vocal silver buyers in his shot share their thoughts on what's coming with stacking silver and gold and the best exit strategy to have with one's bullion. Are YOU about to sell your silver or gold back to a bullion dealer? Join Silver Dave and I as we dive DEEP into what REALLY happening at the silver refineries and why! Never before has stacking precious metals been as important to do as it is today. Protect yourself from out-of-control governments, evil central banks, and the failing US dollar's grip as the world's reserve currency. Make sure you build a stack of silver rounds, silver bars, silver coins, and gold coins as essential barter and wealth preservation!
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[nickndfl]

After the regular Tuesday smackdown PMs are rallying again with gold @ $4k+.

The question for ETF traders is this a sucker's rally and will we turn back down to the 200-day MA by the end of the year as projected by a few respected analysts who got the mini crash in October?

Or is this the beginning of a seasonal rally and back to new highs?

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[Goldhedge]

China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver​

According to Trump, his big achievement a week ago when he announced the trade truce with China, was getting Beijing to agree to remove export limitations on rare earth minerals, which as most now know are so critical for US companies to make everything from cell phones, to cars, and military equipment. And yet, as discussed on a few occasions this week, it feels like the cracks in this latest trade deal are already starting to show, whether it is Beijing ordering Trump what he can't talk about, or quietly ring-fencing its domestic data center by banning US AI chips.

And now, it appears that while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.

According to the Global Times, China has introduced new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten.

China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver | ZeroHedge

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