2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

[Cigarlover]

Don't buy into the hype. If retail supply were tight the buyback price would be spot+. It isn't even close. Remember not long ago when 2025 eagles were in demand and short supply they were being back for spot plus 1 or so. Right now buyback prices are spot= 7 or more. Thats not tight supply. That says hey I have enough and I really don't want to buy anymore unless I can get a huge discount.

After Jan 1st the traders will be back. Why would they sell now and take profits and have to pay taxes on those profits before the end of the year. They will wait until the new year and then sell and use those profits to make more all year long. We could break 100 by the time they do sell but whatever happens happens. If we break 100 I may even sell my 100 ounce bars. Selling those would leave the rest of my stack with a cost basis below 0.

 

[chieftain]

-"Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction" Warren Buffet
the problem with derivatives is they're not regulated. Derivatives are contracts between two parties.

Bill Holter (Jim Sinclair) always ask "What is the value of a contract that can't perform?" If one side of the contract can't deliver silver what 'coverage' or remedy is there for the other side? NONE! Both sides lose.

Last I heard derivatives were in the quadrillions, as in four?

I'm well aware of the catastrophic potential of derivatives, but they aren't merely a contract in the regular sense. They are a form of insurance, with values far in excess of the insured. So in that vein, a derivative instrument could be put in place prior to a metal sale where physical possession completes the contractual obligation. He never made that connection, hence my question.

The notional value of the known derivative instruments is well over $7 quadrillion, however I have two problems with that:

- What about the derivatives we know nothing about? What percentage of the total derivative spread do they constitute?
- What happens in the event of even a tiny CDS trigger, say $2 trillion...?

 

[pmbug]

AI Asian guy (AIAg) videos seem like a spam marketing campaign.

I did a quick search on YT for the new AI videos. I found 9 channels that all started publishing the AIAg videos within the last 1-2 weeks. I'm sure there are more, but that's what I found with one quick search.
...

 

[pmbug]

Peter Spina (goldseek.com) says LBMA spot Bid-Ask spread was $0.29 ~8 hours ago. James Henry Anderson (SDBullion) says wholesale market bid-ask spread was ~$3:

 

[Goldhedge]

Clive as only he can... he warns against trusting Ai videos... Clive does the real research and has the deets!

Silver panic! Manufacturers fear closure of production lines if silver can’t be sourced.​

The silver market is showing signs of severe shortages. COMEX will probably raise margins to try and stop the price rising. But manufacturers don’t care about price. They just can’t shut down their production lines. They will have to get the silver at any price.WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE SILVER PRICE ON MONDAY?

 

[Goldhedge]

So in that vein, a derivative instrument could be put in place prior to a metal sale where physical possession completes the contractual obligation. He never made that connection, hence my question.

The notional value of the known derivative instruments is well over $7 quadrillion, however I have two problems with that:

Agree... but Holter et al have always said "What is the value of a contract that doesn't deliver?"

Derivative 'insurance' is worth what when the silver isn't delivered?

- What about the derivatives we know nothing about? What percentage of the total derivative spread do they constitute?

$7 Quadrillion! Last I followed it was $4 Quad!!

Your question about "Derivatives we know nothing about?" is the scary part of unregulated markets!!!

"Financial instruments of destruction!" W. Buffet

- What happens in the event of even a tiny CDS trigger, say $2 trillion...?

Depression??

 

[nickndfl]

Bank layoffs.

 

[Viking]

Bank layoffs.

I might have to open up my charity for tellers (young ones).

 

[Cigarlover]

When they cant deliver on the silver contracts it's worth about 1 1/2 -2 bucks. It is in the contract that they can cash settle.

 

[Viking]

 

[Viking]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

Peter Spina (goldseek.com) says LBMA spot Bid-Ask spread was $0.29 ~8 hours ago. James Henry Anderson (SDBullion) says wholesale market bid-ask spread was ~$3:...

Wholesale bid-ask for silver now $79.79 - $89.35 ~~~ nearly a $10 spread?

 

[pmbug]

An issue came up today when looking at COMEX futures for the Mar26 contract (SIH26). It turns out that there are different prices being quoted on different sites for the end of trading last Friday.

$77.196 is listed by
Barchart.com
(and GoldChartsRUs which pulls data from Barchart.com)

$79.675 is listed by
MarketWatch
Google Finance
WSJ

I reached out to @GoldFishCharts (Nick Laird) who pointed me to the CME silver futures page which lists $77.196 as the "settlement" price and $79.675 as the "last" price. The CME explains:

"The Last column displays the last price traded in Open Outcry. ..."

"The Settle column displays the settlement price calculated at the end of the trading day for the contract. ..."

There is currently a $2 difference between the last and settle prices which seems like a large spread, but that also seems to be the new normal for silver these days!

 

[Voodoo]

Futures are messed up. He further explained that Settlement is NOT at the end or normal close. It's like 2 hours earlier or around 1pm Central.

 

[Goldhedge]

When they cant deliver on the silver contracts it's worth about 1 1/2 -2 bucks. It is in the contract that they can cash settle.

IF they have the cash...

 

[Goldhedge]

 

[Goldhedge]

Hmmm

 

[Goldhedge]

In case you know people who don't

 

[Goldhedge]

MARGIN CALL
Is a Large Bullion Bank's Short Silver Position About to Be LIQUIDATED?
️ MASSIVE $429M Call Option Placed on SILJ Moments Before Friday's Close!! ️️

️Did a Bullion Bank Just Buy $429 MILLION in SILJ Silver Miner ETF Calls After Receiving a MARGIN CALL on its Naked Short Silver Position?? ️

Here's what we know:

17 non-US banks were net short 43,084 COMEX silver contracts - (215.42 MILLION oz) prior to silver's parabolic move higher...and reportedly short HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of oz via the OTC derivatives market.

On Christmas Day, the physical price of silver shot past $80/oz in Shanghai.
That afternoon, SilverTrade warned readers that if COMEX allowed US silver prices to chase Shanghai price setting into the $80's, it would immediately DETONATE the global bullion banks' derivative books.

Once Globex trading resumed Christmas night, silver futures prices gapped higher from $72 to over $74.
The silver squeeze had begun.

At 8:30 Friday morning, the first signs of major stress in the banking system appeared as TBTF banks tapped the Fed's Repo Facility for $17.251 BILLION in emergency liquidity.

As trading progressed Friday, Silver Prices EXPLODED 11% higher on the day, from $71.03 up to $79.70. Silver CLOSED even stronger in Shanghai at $84.97!

Late Friday afternoon, rumors bagan swirling through the market that a large bullion bank was unable to meet a massive MARGIN CALL it had just received over its naked short silver position.
️This means the silver short position would be LIQUIDATED. Unrealized losses immediately MARKED TO MARKET.

At exactly 3:52 pm EST Friday, someone bought $429 MILLION of Silver Miners ETF $SILJ Calls, the majority expiring in only 3 weeks- January 16, 2026.

Only 8 minutes before the close, after silver had ALREADY soared to nearly $80/oz, someone placed a GARGANUTAN $429 MILLION BET on JUNIOR SILVER MINERS placing a huge rally within the next 3 weeks.

️Let's put this number in perspective.
The ENTIRE MARKET CAP of SILJ is $2.67 Billion.

A single entity placed a MASSIVE DIRECTIONAL $429 M BET ON THE SILJ SILVER JUNIOR MINERS ETF with a $2.67 B market cap THAT EXPIRES IN 3 WEEKS.
️8 minutes before the close.
️After a large bullion bank naked short silver reportedly received a margin call it couldn't meet over its silver short position.

Knowing that it couldn't meet its end of day MARGIN CALL in 8 minutes- meaning its legacy silver short position would be️ LIQUIDATED ️the moment silver futures resume trading Sunday night - and KNOWING that liquidating its MASSIVE naked short silver position would cause the MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES, did this bullion bank attempt to save itself by placing a massively leveraged LONG BET on the SILJ Silver Junior Miners ETF?

Because this bank KNOWS that global silver prices are about to be MASSIVELY repriced higher as the bullion banks have lost control of the silver market, and their naked short silver positions are being FORCE LIQUIDATED??

These are the facts. Are we looking at a strange string of coincidences?
Or is a large bullion bank's legacy silver short position about to be LIQUIDATED the moment trading resumes Sunday night?

Make your own conclusion.

Click below for Full FREE COVERAGE on SilverTrade:

Home

SilverTrade delivers daily gold and silver news, price analysis, market insights, and educational commentary for precious-metals investors. Stay informed with clear, trustworthy updates on what moves the metals markets.

silvertrade.com

 

[Goldhedge]

 

[pmbug]

Silver spot (SGE) up big and futures (SFE) is down from Friday's close in overnight trading in China. SGE silver maintains a huge premium (~$9!) over LBMA spot. Silver is deeply backwardated in China with SFE ~$3 less than SGE. The SFE silver vault see another large outflow in spite of the SFE/SGE premiums vs the West. All signs point to strong demand for immediate delivery physical silver.

Gold is down from Friday's close in overnight trading in China and stays even or at a slight discount to LBMA spot.

 

[pmbug]

SGE (spot) is at an ~$8/ozt premium to LBMA spot. That is absolutely huge and should not happen in a liquid, functional market.

I would expect the LBMA member Chinese bullion banks to rape what little liquidity remains of the LBMA's silver ocean in the London OTC market.

I can't help but wonder if LBMA OTC market is already telling China that silver is T+## delivery so they should buy elsewhere. It's hard to square the premium circle otherwise. China is too hungry for immediate delivery physical silver right now as the SGE-SFE backwardation attests.

I expect we are going to see silver lease rates blowing out (well beyond the current ~7%-8%) and major SLV vault stock raids again very soon.

 

[Cigarlover]

MARGIN CALL
Is a Large Bullion Bank's Short Silver Position About to Be LIQUIDATED?
️ MASSIVE $429M Call Option Placed on SILJ Moments Before Friday's Close!! ️️

️Did a Bullion Bank Just Buy $429 MILLION in SILJ Silver Miner ETF Calls After Receiving a MARGIN CALL on its Naked Short Silver Position?? ️

Here's what we know:

17 non-US banks were net short 43,084 COMEX silver contracts - (215.42 MILLION oz) prior to silver's parabolic move higher...and reportedly short HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of oz via the OTC derivatives market.

On Christmas Day, the physical price of silver shot past $80/oz in Shanghai.
That afternoon, SilverTrade warned readers that if COMEX allowed US silver prices to chase Shanghai price setting into the $80's, it would immediately DETONATE the global bullion banks' derivative books.

Once Globex trading resumed Christmas night, silver futures prices gapped higher from $72 to over $74.
The silver squeeze had begun.

At 8:30 Friday morning, the first signs of major stress in the banking system appeared as TBTF banks tapped the Fed's Repo Facility for $17.251 BILLION in emergency liquidity.

As trading progressed Friday, Silver Prices EXPLODED 11% higher on the day, from $71.03 up to $79.70. Silver CLOSED even stronger in Shanghai at $84.97!

Late Friday afternoon, rumors bagan swirling through the market that a large bullion bank was unable to meet a massive MARGIN CALL it had just received over its naked short silver position.
️This means the silver short position would be LIQUIDATED. Unrealized losses immediately MARKED TO MARKET.

At exactly 3:52 pm EST Friday, someone bought $429 MILLION of Silver Miners ETF $SILJ Calls, the majority expiring in only 3 weeks- January 16, 2026.

Only 8 minutes before the close, after silver had ALREADY soared to nearly $80/oz, someone placed a GARGANUTAN $429 MILLION BET on JUNIOR SILVER MINERS placing a huge rally within the next 3 weeks.

️Let's put this number in perspective.
The ENTIRE MARKET CAP of SILJ is $2.67 Billion.

A single entity placed a MASSIVE DIRECTIONAL $429 M BET ON THE SILJ SILVER JUNIOR MINERS ETF with a $2.67 B market cap THAT EXPIRES IN 3 WEEKS.
️8 minutes before the close.
️After a large bullion bank naked short silver reportedly received a margin call it couldn't meet over its silver short position.

Knowing that it couldn't meet its end of day MARGIN CALL in 8 minutes- meaning its legacy silver short position would be️ LIQUIDATED ️the moment silver futures resume trading Sunday night - and KNOWING that liquidating its MASSIVE naked short silver position would cause the MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES, did this bullion bank attempt to save itself by placing a massively leveraged LONG BET on the SILJ Silver Junior Miners ETF?

Because this bank KNOWS that global silver prices are about to be MASSIVELY repriced higher as the bullion banks have lost control of the silver market, and their naked short silver positions are being FORCE LIQUIDATED??

These are the facts. Are we looking at a strange string of coincidences?
Or is a large bullion bank's legacy silver short position about to be LIQUIDATED the moment trading resumes Sunday night?

Make your own conclusion.

Click below for Full FREE COVERAGE on SilverTrade:

Home

SilverTrade delivers daily gold and silver news, price analysis, market insights, and educational commentary for precious-metals investors. Stay informed with clear, trustworthy updates on what moves the metals markets.

silvertrade.com

Looks like more Ai BS to me.
A large bullion bank cant meet it's margin call so it buys a massive position in call options? I'm pretty sure if it cant meet it's margin calls it also doesn't have 429 million on hand to buy call options.

Something about this doesn't make any sense. Looks like an attempt to create more FOMO. Going forward it is really going to suck to have to sift through a gazillion articles and videos AI generated for click bait and try and find any real information.

 

[pmbug]

FYI:


I have seen SilverTrade copy other people's posts/work and post them as his own. He also promotes every and any rumor as fact much like AIAg. I bet @Viking reads his posts daily.

 

[nickndfl]

Here come the profit takers. I got out a week early and would have definitely sold last Friday if not the previous week. Use the volatility to re-enter at the lows. We are still in an uptrend and you will not pick the absolute bottom.

 

[Cigarlover]

Here come the profit takers. I got out a week early and would have definitely sold last Friday if not the previous week. Use the volatility to re-enter at the lows. We are still in an uptrend and you will not pick the absolute bottom.

sell the FOMo and buy the fear.

 

[pmbug]

Follow up...

Silver community — be careful with the individual behind this account (yes I am mocking him )

He used to run silverdoctors, had ZERO shame copy and pasting work from us and claiming as his own.

He over sensationalizes and posts whatever it takes to get views. He trolls accounts trying to capture followers and leads through his rebranded site. He’s most interested in him$elf

When the silver market got difficult he disappeared for several years and returns when times are good. He is a major grifter, steals content without permission, posts it as his own on his site (not just mine but many authors), he misrepresents the truth so many times. Doesn’t take time to do the real work. Just looking to profit while doing a disservice to the community.

I have NO patience for him anymore. I am BLOCKING this view wh*re. I absolutely hate how he treats others and specifically the silver community. He worked with some real shiesters in the past.

He is not a friend of mine nor a genuine one of the silver community. Never will be… not interested in spending time replying to people about his constant mistakes or giving him any valuable attention or time.

He does more harm to the silver community than he does to promote it. He represents it poorly.

GOOD RIDDANCE

 

[pmbug]

Dr. K says:

SILVER — CHOP WATCH

The chop continues!

The price is now within the first designated support range between $75.64 - $73.54

These are the levels at which I am looking to buy back into AGQ and stack more physical metal with the profits taken on Friday

“Difficult to pinpoint how long the chop will last, but there’s support already wick tested at $75.64. The bottom could already be in.

Below that, there are three additional short-term support levels at $73.54, $72.69 and $70.16 that I’ll be watching.”

Volatility is normal — even desirable — at these elevated prices. Without it, the system of swing trading AGQ to stack additional discounted physical metal and buy back lower would not work

On the weekly chart this price action still looks like a bullish retest of the .5 fib level, likely to recover relatively quickly — though again, it’s difficult to say exactly how long the discount will last. Possible that it extends into the week just long enough to give the top-callers time to think they’re going to be right, only for it to reverse again to higher prices.

With any luck, prices will stay down long enough into the US market open to actually buy this dip

I’ll be driving through remote country for about 14 hours today (starting in about an hour) so my ability to respond to questions will be limited; I’ll likely to be out of service for most of the day, but will do the best I can.

Stay safe out there

 

[Viking]

FYI:


I have seen SilverTrade copy other people's posts/work and post them as his own. He also promotes every and any rumor as fact much like AIAg. I bet @Viking reads his posts daily.

X wasn't an entity in 2011.

edit: BTW, I take in information from a lot of sources. I read a novel by Ted Butler in early 2000s. Can't remember the title. My first Au and Ag purchases were in 2002. Au at $314, Ag ~ $5, maybe a little less.

 

[Voodoo]

Looks like more Ai BS to me.
A large bullion bank cant meet it's margin call so it buys a massive position in call options? I'm pretty sure if it cant meet it's margin calls it also doesn't have 429 million on hand to buy call options.

Something about this doesn't make any sense. Looks like an attempt to create more FOMO. Going forward it is really going to suck to have to sift through a gazillion articles and videos AI generated for click bait and try and find any real information.

Its a little different in Banker world. They just borrow a Billion from the FED and then "hedge".

 

[Goldhedge]

I just watched $4 billion in silver longs get vaporized in 70 minutes.

$83.75 to $75.15. Fastest wipeout I’ve ever seen.

CNBC is already running the “bubble burst” narrative. Bloomberg too. They want you scared. They want you out.

But nobody’s talking about what happened in Shanghai during that exact same window.

While American traders panic-dumped at $75, Chinese buyers were paying $90. Ninety. For the same metal. The premium didn’t shrink during the crash—it widened.

Let that sink in.

This wasn’t a top. This was a heist.

I’ve been in this game long enough to know what a liquidity vacuum looks like. There were zero bids between $83 and $76. The algos pulled everything. Price didn’t fall—it teleported. And the second it hit $75, physical demand stepped in like it was Christmas morning.

Here’s the part that should terrify you: China locks silver exports in 72 hours. January 1st. Export licenses only. They control 70% of global supply. COMEX is down 70% on inventory. London’s vaults are bleeding. And Elon Musk just tweeted “this is not good” about the shortage.

The gold-silver ratio is 60:1. Historical average is 30. That’s $150 silver just to normalize.

Everyone’s calling this 1980. It’s not. The Hunts were speculators playing paper games. This is industrial demand crashing into empty vaults. Solar panels don’t negotiate. AI chips don’t wait.

Retail just handed their silver to sovereign wealth funds at a 15% discount.

And most of you have no idea what’s about to happen.

Read the full story here - https://open.substack.com/pub/shana...7b5o&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

 

[Goldhedge]

Can you imagine the conversations they had over the weekend to put this crash together?

Had to be panic! Let it rise and suck in the newbies then let's short the hell out of it.

Looks like they over shot their wad... hopefully it closes above support.


How low will it go?




1 month back





Longer still... $55, but the cost to get there...!

 

[Voodoo]

Totally expected... but do I add today or tomorrow? Hmm.

 

[Goldhedge]

​

COMEX raises margin on silver contracts, forcing weak holders to sell their silver​

Today, Monday, the CME raised the margin on Silver contracts to $25’000 forcing some smaller less capitalised traders to liquidate their position.

Unconfirmed reports say they are also reducing position limits. If true it would force big investors to sell. It’s what they did to the Hunt Brothers in the 1970s. At the time of recording, I could not verify that information. 

This margin increase triggered a sharp fall in the silver price on COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange

Spot silver is at $75.68. All eyes are on the $75 level where there are 41000 optiion contracts outstanding

Shanghai spread remains $5.20 above COMEX
5

 

[Goldhedge]

 

[nickndfl]

You can start buying when it drops below the 50 day. I like GDXU < $200.

 

[Goldhedge]

FYI there is a Somalia Minnesota thread

 

[Goldhedge]

Silver crashed 5% and you panicked.

Meanwhile Shanghai kept buying at 82 dollars while your screen showed 72.

Same metal. Same hour. Ten dollar gap.

That gap did not close during the crash. It widened.

You are not watching a market selloff. You are watching a paper market get divorced from physical reality in real time.

CME raised margins twice in 17 days right into holiday liquidity when nobody can wire funds. Leveraged longs got slaughtered by design. This is not price discovery. This is position liquidation masquerading as a crash.

The Chinese are not stupid. They see 72 on the screen and bid 82 anyway because they know something you do not. Paper settles in cash. Factories settle in metal. One price is negotiable. One price is survival.

Friday morning export controls go live. 72 hours from now the arbitrage window slams shut.

You think you just saw a top.

You just saw the last shakeout before the Western price is forced to catch up to the Eastern one.

The screen lied to you today.

Shanghai told the truth.

Read the full story here…

The Argentum Inflection

How CME’s December 29 Margin Strike Exposed the Terminal Fracture Between Paper and Physical Silver

open.substack.com

 

[Voodoo]

Panic I certainly did not. Its fun watching the bankers desperation start to really show.