2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

pmbug · 2026-02-01T10:06:20-0600

Dr potassium said:
Silver — despite the calamity on Friday, silver still found the bottom at a previously predicted range ($75.64-$73.54) and bounced. This is why I leave my drawings in place
https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/2007095279783469240

A reset of the leveraged game board is probably a good thing for the longterm. As far back as November 25th, 2025 I did say in multiple places I only expected silver to be in the ~$70s by February 2026. It way-overshot that target and has now retested it
Nov 25, 2025: https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/1993319875444633921

Friday’s wick-low also happens to coincide exactly with the 0.786 level in the fibs from the January 2026 wick-high to the 2020 wick low, which in any other circumstances would be considered a bullish retest

The call for 2026 remains unchanged, if not emboldened. Nothing is fundamentally different about the physical silver market since last week. The price action seen on Friday was not organic. Now that leverage has been swept, silver is likely clear to go higher again. $159/oz by EOY, maybe as high as $259/oz
https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/2004590374460039177

I bought out my LCS of American Silver Eagles (and then some) on Friday afternoon. Maximum conviction.

For the good of the order

pmbug · 2026-02-01T10:17:31-0600

David Jensen said:
...
The CME COMEX has ‘circuit breakers’ in the silver market that halt trading for a period if extreme price movements occur to allow for a more orderly market. What the CME COMEX calls dynamic circuit breakers automatically kick-in when the price of silver drops or rises by 10% on a rolling 1 hour basis. We can see in Figure 1. below that from ~ 12:30 to ~ 13:30 Eastern Time, the price of silver - both cash/spot and futures - ranged between $91 /oz. and $75 /oz., representing an 18% range, and yet the CME COMEX automatic circuit breakers were not activated nor announced by the CME. Yesterday, I wrote a letter to the CME asking why this exception to CME COMEX rules occurred and will report their response when received.
...

Problems With Friday's Late Silver Price Smash

What The

jensendavid.substack.com

Viking · 2026-02-01T10:24:56-0600

Might have been an old circuit breaker or someone mistakingly installed an over sized one.

68camaro · 2026-02-01T12:48:15-0600

pmbug said:

Don't know the Dr. Potassium, but didn't his Friday post predict a bottom at 89.9, yet here after the fact he's declaring victory and saying he predicted low 70s?

pmbug · 2026-02-01T13:15:10-0600

No, he didn't predict a bottom, he said that was resistance zone. He always talks about possibilities. "If it closes above/below, then this is likely" kind of thing. It's his own brand of TA and some of his calls have been very accurate. He posts everything publicly right or wrong. I've chatted with him a bit. Cool dude.

Cigarlover · 2026-02-01T13:40:28-0600

pmbug said:
India also raising margins...

pmbug said:
Problems With Friday's Late Silver Price Smash

What The

jensendavid.substack.com

It was lunch time so the circuit control operator was probably out of the office and no-one else had his password to shut everything down.

pmbug · 2026-02-01T13:41:34-0600

"Bitcoin fixes this"

Lancers32 · 2026-02-01T16:11:49-0600

68camaro said:
Don't know the Dr. Potassium, but didn't his Friday post predict a bottom at 89.9, yet here after the fact he's declaring victory and saying he predicted low 70s?

Yeah I think him or one of the guys throwing out numbers said there was institutional support 88-90. In orderly markets support resistance works in a market like we just saw forget about all of that. Friday might have been the bottom it held above the move to the low 70's just a while back. The thing that would surprise most people would be a move back to and past the recent highs and on to $200 Silver.

Supports under the low 70's is a wide range could go all the way down to close to the old all time highs. Good luck if out or underexposed don't go all in at once unless you're planning on scalping.

Lancers32 · 2026-02-01T16:12:37-0600

pmbug said:
"Bitcoin fixes this"

Looks like the train got derailed.

Voodoo · 2026-02-01T17:16:35-0600

Did the Crimex raise margins again? Tasty mentioned something about a 33%...

Lancers32 · 2026-02-01T17:41:09-0600

Voodoo said:
Did the Crimex raise margins again? Tasty mentioned something about a 33%...

They're going to 100%.

pmbug · 2026-02-01T17:56:03-0600

Voodoo said:
Did the Crimex raise margins again? Tasty mentioned something about a 33%...

Yes. https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-demand-drivers-and-vault-totals.6364/page-13#-efp-commentary

Voodoo · 2026-02-01T18:32:51-0600

Well, a little surprised by that but why not. There can't possibly be any leveraged investors left to rinse though.... so what?

Goldhedge · 2026-02-01T20:15:59-0600

Retrace is healthy.

It just makes the pattern that much stronger. Stretching it out instead of parabolic.

2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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