2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Dr potassium said:
Silver 🥈 — despite the calamity on Friday, silver still found the bottom at a previously predicted range ($75.64-$73.54) and bounced. This is why I leave my drawings in place 🤌
👉👉 https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/2007095279783469240


A reset of the leveraged game board is probably a good thing for the longterm. As far back as November 25th, 2025 I did say in multiple places I only expected silver to be in the ~$70s by February 2026. It way-overshot that target and has now retested it 👇👇
👉👉 Nov 25, 2025: https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/1993319875444633921


Friday’s wick-low also happens to coincide exactly with the 0.786 level in the fibs from the January 2026 wick-high to the 2020 wick low, which in any other circumstances would be considered a bullish retest 👌

The call for 2026 remains unchanged, if not emboldened. Nothing is fundamentally different about the physical silver market since last week. The price action seen on Friday was not organic. Now that leverage has been swept, silver is likely clear to go higher again. $159/oz by EOY, maybe as high as $259/oz 🚀
👉👉 https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/2004590374460039177


I bought out my LCS of American Silver Eagles (and then some) on Friday afternoon. Maximum conviction.

For the good of the order 🫡
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David Jensen said:
...
The CME COMEX has ‘circuit breakers’ in the silver market that halt trading for a period if extreme price movements occur to allow for a more orderly market. What the CME COMEX calls dynamic circuit breakers automatically kick-in when the price of silver drops or rises by 10% on a rolling 1 hour basis. We can see in Figure 1. below that from ~ 12:30 to ~ 13:30 Eastern Time, the price of silver - both cash/spot and futures - ranged between $91 /oz. and $75 /oz., representing an 18% range, and yet the CME COMEX automatic circuit breakers were not activated nor announced by the CME. Yesterday, I wrote a letter to the CME asking why this exception to CME COMEX rules occurred and will report their response when received.
...
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jensendavid.substack.com

Problems With Friday's Late Silver Price Smash

What The
jensendavid.substack.com jensendavid.substack.com
 
No, he didn't predict a bottom, he said that was resistance zone. He always talks about possibilities. "If it closes above/below, then this is likely" kind of thing. It's his own brand of TA and some of his calls have been very accurate. He posts everything publicly right or wrong. I've chatted with him a bit. Cool dude.
 
68camaro said:
Don't know the Dr. Potassium, but didn't his Friday post predict a bottom at 89.9, yet here after the fact he's declaring victory and saying he predicted low 70s?
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Yeah I think him or one of the guys throwing out numbers said there was institutional support 88-90. In orderly markets support resistance works in a market like we just saw forget about all of that. Friday might have been the bottom it held above the move to the low 70's just a while back. The thing that would surprise most people would be a move back to and past the recent highs and on to $200 Silver.

Supports under the low 70's is a wide range could go all the way down to close to the old all time highs. Good luck if out or underexposed don't go all in at once unless you're planning on scalping.
 
Well, a little surprised by that but why not. There can't possibly be any leveraged investors left to rinse though.... so what?
 
The "JPM bought the bottom" or "closed their shorts" narrative has gone viral on X over the weekend and now AI Asian Guy is parroting it. The problem with the narrative is that all of the deliveries being touted as evidence for this came from JPM's customer account, not their house account.
 
pmbug said:
The "JPM bought the bottom" or "closed their shorts" narrative has gone viral on X over the weekend and now AI Asian Guy is parroting it. The problem with the narrative is that all of the deliveries being touted as evidence for this came from JPM's customer account, not their house account.
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So they're still short??
 
Viking said:
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I watched this one and another video of his from mid-week last week, and FoFty (Shan, is it?) - as a trader - seems to have a great approach. As I have observed from with many of these guys (me not being one of them), most of the good ones seem to have a secret sauce that they have developed over years of trial and error, including specific tools and custom developed indexes to spot trends that they watch. Some of them are overt TA tools, but others proprietary to them. But Shan seems to be a bit more transparent than other TA traders that I've interacted with. I'm interested in learning more about what he is looking at. I'm not eager or interested in turning into a day trader, but there seems to be something interesting for me to learn from this guy, so I've bookmarked him and will watch future videos until I either get my fill or change direction,.
 
68camaro said:
I watched this one and another video of his from mid-week last week, and FoFty (Shan, is it?) - as a trader - seems to have a great approach. As I have observed from with many of these guys (me not being one of them), most of the good ones seem to have a secret sauce that they have developed over years of trial and error, including specific tools and custom developed indexes to spot trends that they watch. Some of them are overt TA tools, but others proprietary to them. But Shan seems to be a bit more transparent than other TA traders that I've interacted with. I'm interested in learning more about what he is looking at. I'm not eager or interested in turning into a day trader, but there seems to be something interesting for me to learn from this guy, so I've bookmarked him and will watch future videos until I either get my fill or change direction,.
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He has a community. And apparently don't charge any fees to be a member.
 
Next time the Asian AI Guy says JP Morgan recommends exiting a position I will consider it gospel. I hope they don't whack us in the other direction.
 
nickndfl said:
Next time the Asian AI Guy says JP Morgan recommends exiting a position I will consider it gospel. I hope they don't whack us in the other direction.
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which AI asian guy LOL.......there are at least 10 of them .......so pick your poison
 
That was only 633 contracts. So who needed 3 million ounces. Aren't that many companies in the US that have that kind of need. Tesla would be one.

It would take a lot more than 600 contracts to bring the market down the way it did. Miles Franklin has 100 million in inventory and to hedge that they would need 200 contracts themselves. Add in a few other big players like SD bullion, Apmex, Asahi, Scottsdale and just those names would probably have at least that many contracts to hedge.

I think the volume on takedown day was right around 300,000. Thats 1.5 billion ounces of paper. Any day trader that was set up to trade metals was probably looking at that trade for awhile just waiting for it. Once it started I'm sure they all jumped in and got a piece of the action.
I'm sure the obvious players had a hand in getting this started but it wasn't all them once the trade showed itself.
 
It was not just the 633 contracts JP executed, but the timing was perfect when everybody was down for different reasons.
 
I cannot believe that a 2x leveraged silver fund had $10 Billion of assets. But that vaporizing $6 billion in a day certainly would have contributed a lot of the fuel. Like I said, i Hate the leveraged ETF's, and yet still own a few in spots.
 
So... note to self. When a fund goes parabolic up but is also partially dependent on a leveraged fund, and the exchange increases margins several times, beware! Of course the big boys like JPM have more insight into the triggers than anyone, so certainly they can take advantage of this, and then stop loss orders just add to the cascading waterfall down.
 
The first 10 mins

The voice in the wilderness: Nothing's changed. You're in a fiat and debt based collapse.

WARNING: The Precious Metals Discount Window Closes SOON – Golden Ticket to Ride the Massive Rally!​

 
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