2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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For the 1st time in like 100 billion congressional hearings, one has now led to a DOJ indictment? Seems odd to me. I think we know Trump wants his guy in there ASAP to lower rates. Good for the metals, not so good for inflation and higher costs in everything.
 
🔥🔥🔥Gold down slightly and silver up a whopping ~$10 from Friday's close (to $93+!) in overnight trading in China.

When China closed last Friday, there was a ~$5-$6 premium to the West. Throughout Friday, after China (SGE/SFE) was closed, the West closed the gap to ~$3.

There were rumors that SGE was having failures to deliver as they are apparently running out of liquid free float vault stock (not something I can identify). Last night's explosive rise would seem to confirm that possibility.

The SFE silver vault did report a respectable inflow - the 2nd in 3 days, so maybe the LBMA is starting to deliver silver to China (as would be expected while China maintains large premiums to LBMA spot).

The SGE silver vault reports a whopping, massive 4.9M ozt (152.5 tons) outflow last week. As I've said previously, either domestic demand for silver in China is out of control, or the LBMA was not delivering silver (at least not last week!).

 
pmbug said:
Your boat buying friend's story inspired this video creation:

Click to expand...

Some girls like it when you bone them while they are passed out. They come back for seconds, but not for silver.
 
Chin Li bought the dip overnight. NY is taking it to the house this morning. My worst performer is only +4%. Crazy once in a lifetime.
 
+ 300% + in 3 months. Look at those big green candles in the chart above. The next buying opportinity will be half of the last around $30-$31 intraday maybe?
 
Chin Li is buying up everything not nailed down tonight.Besides Chinese citizens being told to buy gold and silver some major institutions are buying PMs instead of Tbills.

This is shaping up to be a similar run as what happened last year with 9 positive weeks in a row. We are living in history right now.

See you @ $5k Au & $100 Ag. That would making another good contest to guess the dates.
 
Miners are generally.lagging the underlying metal. HYMC is the best pwrforming in last 3 months.

Expect the miners to accelerate when earnings hit in Feb.
 
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Looks like the miners are setting up to gap up shortly. They are showing more RS since they have been relatively underperforming compared to the underlying metals.

GDXU
SLVR
SILJ
HYMC
HL

AGQ 2x Ag for bulls.

SOXL 3x chips if you like to trade tech.

***REMEMBER the market is closed on Monday for MLK holiday.
 
Looks like Hycroft is bull flagging and going to pop again like December.
SILJ is starting to outperform again ahead of silver spot.
Screenshot_20260115_181859_TradingView.jpg
 


Andy went off on a good rant tonight really breaking down how he sees things going forward.
 
Okay, you should not buy gold or silver or miners because all governments are going to reduce spending and service their debt properly from now on.
 
China is trying to apply the brakes a little bit to the SHFE (futures) market

 
We have known China is divesting USTs. Another facet is they have an annual $1.4T trade surplus with the world that exceeds the peak of whatever they held in USTs.

The question is what are they buying besides global infastructure as part of their trade deals? My guess is gold, silver and other materials?
 
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I feel like all markets should be like the metals market in China. No paper, just trade physical. Price is determined by the real buyers and sellers.
 
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