2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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nickndfl said:
They were trying to save the big banks that were upside down on their shorts.
Click to expand...

I wonder… were they successful?

Covering shorts makes the price rise…?

Or were they ‘covering’ these last few days??

Now that the bottom is in, in time for the weekend… I sure wish I had some dry powder….
 
They haven't covered anything. I think it is more about marking the price at the end of the month. Ie if you can show that you're only down a cool Billion maybe you survive another month. Whereas 3 days ago it might have been $3 Billion.
 
My musings for what they are worth.

This time is different. I think we can throw that away now.
Rick Rule announces he sold 80% of his physical recently. He's very well connected and surely worth listening too. Perhaps we all should have followed his lead over the last week.

This engulfing red candle is a problem. Not easily overcome. If we get an engulfing green candle on Monday I suppose that would counteract the red but not very likely to happen. Small green candles buying the dip will only form a bear flag that will eventually take us down into the low 60's or Gareth says 54.
By the way, I listen to a ton of these social media influencers and Gareth was the only one calling for a correction. Michael Oliver did say we would get a hick up at some point but he thought it was a month away. So, credit to him as well.

Now we have investors who did sell at the top who may want to reload lower or just go away. We also have loads of manufacturers that were buying all the way up. What do they do now? I would think DCA. If they had an insatiable appetite at 100-120 how can they pass up 80 or below?

For those os us in this space for a long time with a very low DCA, this is nothing. Go back to 30 and I would add a lot more which would bring my DCA up but knowing how fast this can move up, well worth it. However for those who are new to the space who have never seen a downturn, this is gut wrenching and at this point they are just hoping for a miracle so they can get out even or at a minimal loss on the ounces and miners they own.

Now we have the refiners who are so overstuffed with metals they stopped taking them or are on a 10 day delay. My guess is they hedge to protect themselves but whoever is playing the paper game for them must be pulling their hair out.
And of course we have the retailers, like Tim from yankee stacking, who have been buying like crazy and he doesn't hedge. Has to be gut wrenching for him as well.

And finally, at the end of the day no one seems to know squat about what really happened today. Some say it was the banks but didn't it just get reported that the bullion banks were net long? Did that change? Some say it was Trumps pick for Powells replacement. The videos should be interesting this weekend but I dont think anyone really knows.

Just some random thoughts as I try and piece this altogether.
 
Cigarlover said:
This time is different. I think we can throw that away now.
Rick Rule announces he sold 80% of his physical recently. He's very well connected and surely worth listening too. Perhaps we all should have followed his lead over the last week.
Click to expand...
He sold to purchase mining stocks. So he took an even bigger hit today.
 
Where were the circuit breakers today? I thought I recently read they are supposed to kick in at 2 1/2% to avoid days like today. If the market was going up like it went down today they would have shut it down for sure. Do they only work one way? On the way up?
 
Cigarlover said:
My musings for what they are worth.

This time is different. I think we can throw that away now.
Rick Rule announces he sold 80% of his physical recently. He's very well connected and surely worth listening too. Perhaps we all should have followed his lead over the last week.

This engulfing red candle is a problem. Not easily overcome. If we get an engulfing green candle on Monday I suppose that would counteract the red but not very likely to happen. Small green candles buying the dip will only form a bear flag that will eventually take us down into the low 60's or Gareth says 54.
By the way, I listen to a ton of these social media influencers and Gareth was the only one calling for a correction. Michael Oliver did say we would get a hick up at some point but he thought it was a month away. So, credit to him as well.

Now we have investors who did sell at the top who may want to reload lower or just go away. We also have loads of manufacturers that were buying all the way up. What do they do now? I would think DCA. If they had an insatiable appetite at 100-120 how can they pass up 80 or below?

For those os us in this space for a long time with a very low DCA, this is nothing. Go back to 30 and I would add a lot more which would bring my DCA up but knowing how fast this can move up, well worth it. However for those who are new to the space who have never seen a downturn, this is gut wrenching and at this point they are just hoping for a miracle so they can get out even or at a minimal loss on the ounces and miners they own.

Now we have the refiners who are so overstuffed with metals they stopped taking them or are on a 10 day delay. My guess is they hedge to protect themselves but whoever is playing the paper game for them must be pulling their hair out.
And of course we have the retailers, like Tim from yankee stacking, who have been buying like crazy and he doesn't hedge. Has to be gut wrenching for him as well.

And finally, at the end of the day no one seems to know squat about what really happened today. Some say it was the banks but didn't it just get reported that the bullion banks were net long? Did that change? Some say it was Trumps pick for Powells replacement. The videos should be interesting this weekend but I dont think anyone really knows.

Just some random thoughts as I try and piece this altogether.
Click to expand...

i do think Sunday evening and Monday will add some clarity to the situation

this was mostly paper.......we couldnt sell physical for the paper price to liquidate a position if you wanted to and if you did it was 15% back of spot....will be intresting to see on monday where physical gets priced IE do we go from a 15% discount to sell to a 15% premium to buy etc

there are always prognosticators always some right...always some wrong....while i like to listen to them....they all are just people guessing....

as for dealers........just like people some will have strong hands ...some weak....some will have lots of stock if the public starts buying some will fade.

certainly a lot of value was torched today in the paper markets ....maybe a prelude to unrest thruout the market ......

in my opinion this market needed a reality check

i was fine in 1980.....2011........and will be next week, next month, next year........

the spot value of my stack fell xxxxxxx in one day.........but my OZ did not change....my bank account didnt change....etc

will be very interesting to see how the you tube crowd deals with this adversity as most are young and untested

i did liquidate my paper positions early in the bloodbath ....so dry powder is abundant going forward

added some of my musings, i will sleep better tonight than i did last night :)
 
Cigarlover said:
Where were the circuit breakers today? I thought I recently read they are supposed to kick in at 2 1/2% to avoid days like today. If the market was going up like it went down today they would have shut it down for sure. Do they only work one way? On the way up?
Click to expand...
I had the same thoughts........wish i knew the answer .........makes no sense.......maybe the cooling towers were down again
 
If you sold.physical early in the week when spot was $116, but only got $100 nothing has changed because dealers are selling for $100 anyway.

This drop really affected anybody that was leveraged in silver. It will put in some kind of top where many speculators will not hold at the end of themonth, especially if silver reaches $116 again. The drop has affected cinfidence in the integrity of the COMEX. We need China and anybody who stands for delivery to add transparency now..
 
Many dealers have apparently sold out inventory as retail buying exploded with the dip. If you sold early in the week, you might not be able to get your silver back again.
 
nickndfl said:
If you sold.physical early in the week when spot was $116, but only got $100 nothing has changed because dealers are selling for $100 anyway.

This drop really affected anybody that was leveraged in silver. It will put in some kind of top where many speculators will not hold at the end of themonth, especially if silver reaches $116 again. The drop has affected cinfidence in the integrity of the COMEX. We need China and anybody who stands for delivery to add transparency now..
Click to expand...


I just checked APMEX they are selling $1000 face 90% for $94 an ounce. I think the smackdown was needed we were overbought by any metric don't believe anyone who tells you this time was different and to forget indicators that show how overbought we were. As of Tuesday Market Vane Gold was 97% Bulls same reading as the 2011 top likely nearly the same for Silver. This was orchestrated I think the reason why limits didn't kick in was because they were putting bids in on the way down. JPM was a buyer. I've read the guys who think we go lower still MA thinks we could see $55 Silver. I bought a little sub $80 will add more if we open lower Monday. We saw these types of declines during previous bull markets. Silver and SLV went down to their 50 day moving averages Friday. We get at least a tradeable pop.
 
I suppose dealers could also be pulling inventory from sale if they didn't hedge properly and this slam put them underwater.
 
We have been consuming more than mining for 5+ years running. And the outlook is for an increase in uses of silver. Retail demand is also strong in Asia. Supply and Demand hasn't change.

I was recently in China, a shop owner proudly showed me one of his 1 kg silver bars.
 
...
China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange suspended trading for the entire day on January 30 in the UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF, according to an official fund announcement. The notice stated that trading would be halted from the market open through the close as part of exchange risk-control measures.

Chinese financial media reported that the halt followed sustained abnormal trading conditions, with the fund’s secondary-market price diverging materially from its net asset value. Coverage described the suspension as a regulatory response to excessive premiums and repeated risk warnings rather than a change in the underlying structure of the fund.
...
Click to expand...

More:
substackfwd.xyz

**Silver: Emergency Halt of UBS-China Fund Tied to Global Selloff

China Sets The Price Now
substackfwd.xyz substackfwd.xyz

Edit - ZH link now:

Silver: Emergency Halt of UBS-China Fund Tied to Global Selloff | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
pmbug said:
Many dealers have apparently sold out inventory as retail buying exploded with the dip. If you sold early in the week, you might not be able to get your silver back again.
Click to expand...

That's why I said trading is for paper only. Even if they timed it perfectly with the spreads you won't gain much. I did have some pretty Maples loaded for $83 each but I was a bit shocked by the price for only 50.... hasn't been enough time for me to forget how much that used to cost, lol
 
Voodoo said:
That's why I said trading is for paper only. Even if they timed it perfectly with the spreads you won't gain much. I did have some pretty Maples loaded for $83 each but I was a bit shocked by the price for only 50.... hasn't been enough time for me to forget how much that used to cost, lol
Click to expand...
$1000 face 90% last price I paid was $3700 close to $70K now. Sticker shock.
 
CEF another Sprott fund is sporting a nearly 10% discount too. Back in the day these kinds of discounts were positive. Premium got over 30% during the last run. Curiously though this happened after the 2011 high in 2012.
 
I think we might need time to repair but I think what is scaring some is the speed and the duration of the correction.
 
Ugly as it is I always see the paper bottom as the 200dma......so im currently out of paper....haven't sold a single oz of physical....Sunday night overseas trading will shed some light on things....the last physical I bought was some 90% at ~38x face....the market was definitely becoming irrational the dopamine infused silver youtube watch parties every day were becoming ridiculous

In my opinion we are still in true price discovery, factories are still using silver and mines are still mining and not keeping up and 100$ silver is still cheap in manufacturing
 
Gary Savage said:
...
Yesterday was an attempt by the banks to stop delivery of physical on the COMEX. The are stuck in the short positions with huge numbers of contracts now standing for delivery. The problem is that they just created a $40 spread between the US paper market and Asia. Silver is going to be frantically bought at these artificially low prices and moved to Asia where it will command a much higher price. All they did yesterday was make the problem 10X worse.
...
This could have played out naturally as a rolling top and 15-20% pullback over 5-10 weeks, but yesterdays intervention has almost surely sped up the process. We will get the bottom sometime next week, Maybe even as early as Monday or Tuesday.
...
Click to expand...

 
India 🇮🇳 had a special trading session last night (Sunday in India). Current silver prices:

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $101.26 (less tax = $92.15)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $96.38 (less tax = ~$90.59)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $90.14

Feb-Mar spread blew out!
 
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