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2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat
- Thread starter pmbug
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The best explanation I have heard yet. It was Nicks fault.
Came for the commentary, stayed for the hottie.
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She's definitely easy on the eyes. She's also very good at what she does. Always seems to ask intelligent questions and keeps the interviews on track.
I'm guessing she also has a few dollars. She's on the board of McEwen mining. Oh and she also speaks 6 languages.
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This means the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) combined have less than 500 metric tons of physical #Silver in their vaults.
Whatever they tell you divide it in half.
Chinese New Year holiday is coming up. It will be lit
. To put this into perspective, the old Shanghai SGE member “five color metals” alone withdraws 4 to 10 metric tons of physical #Silver from the SGE frequently.
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If there is no paper market in China how does the price go down so much when demand is so high that the vaults are being drained?
"On February 5, 2026, six groups of accounts under actual control exceeded the daily trading volume limit for relevant contracts , reaching the exchange's processing standard. The aforementioned clients' trading activities violated Article 16 of the " Shanghai Futures Exchange Abnormal Trading Behavior Management Measures ," and the exchange decided to take regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions by the relevant clients in the corresponding contracts."
Interesting so were those Bad guys trying to manipulate? Or a group that just went leveaged to the hilt?
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Competing with the COMEX I see....
"R" below asked grok
Grok: The post announces SHFE's restriction of six accounts for violating daily trading limits on silver futures, confirming a suspected short-selling attack that drove a 17% price drop on February 5, 2026. Earlier that morning, April 2026 silver contracts saw 1.4 million trades equivalent to 1.34 billion ounces—nearly double annual global production—yet prices held a premium to Comex, underscoring persistent physical demand.
Community reactions praise SHFE's rapid enforcement, contrasting it with lax Western regulation, while highlighting only 13 million ounces remain in SHFE warehouses amid the frenzy.The key parties involved in the February 5, 2026, SHFE silver futures incident—where six groups of accounts were restricted for exceeding daily trading volume limits and violating abnormal trading rules—are as follows, based on the official announcement and related reporting:
The restricted entities: Six groups of accounts (often described as "six groups of accounts under actual control"). These are clusters of related trading accounts that exceeded position/volume limits on silver futures contracts (primarily April 2026 deliveries). The SHFE imposed restrictions preventing them from opening new positions in the affected contracts, per Article 16 of their Abnormal Trading Behavior Management Measures. No public names were released by the exchange itself, as is typical for such regulatory actions. The primary suspected actor: Bian Ximing (also referenced in reports as a veteran Chinese commodity trader). Through his associated brokerage Zhongcai Futures Co., he built what appears to be the largest net short position on SHFE silver—reportedly around 450 tons (equivalent to roughly 30,000 lots or a massive portion of available physical).
Bloomberg and other sources linked his aggressive short-building (ramped up in late January 2026) to the heavy selling pressure that contributed to the sharp price drop. This aligns with community suspicions of a coordinated short-selling attack amid extremely high volumes (over 1.3 billion ounces equivalent traded in one session, far exceeding annual global mine production).
The regulator/enforcer: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) — they detected the violations quickly, issued the restriction notice the same day, and acted to curb further aggressive positioning. This is widely praised in precious metals communities (e.g., on X) as decisive enforcement, especially compared to perceived leniency on Western exchanges like COMEX.
Broader context players: Retail and physical silver buyers/demand drivers in China kept premiums high vs. Comex despite the paper crash. Other mentions (e.g., UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund) relate to separate but concurrent market stress from extreme retail inflows and premiums, though not directly tied to the restricted accounts.
No individual retail traders or Western entities were publicly named as the violators. The action targeted coordinated, high-volume short-side activity that threatened market stability, especially with SHFE physical silver inventories critically low (~13–13.5 million ounces reported around that time). This event is seen by many as evidence of attempted manipulation via paper shorts failing against strong underlying physical fundamentals.
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It's bad when the Chinese are the good guys. JPM, GS and others are creating chaos in the PM markets.
I know Trump is tryirng to drive prices down to put in lower floors. I am more concerned about new capital controls that would restrict PM sales, taxes and ownership.
I know Trump is tryirng to drive prices down to put in lower floors. I am more concerned about new capital controls that would restrict PM sales, taxes and ownership.
Viking
Yellow Jacket
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Not going to accelerate anything if there is nothing available to purchase.
I suspect that the deficit will lessen this year because of the higher prices and more people selling. The refiners are maxed out so there will be a lot more silver coming into the market as they catch up over the coming months. In addition, if investor demand was 200 million ounces when silver was 20 it takes a whole lot more money at current prices to continue that 200 million ounce demand. It may be happening but indications are that in the US the sellers really came out when prices got over 100.
One last point is people talk about this like there is only so much silver available and once it's gone it's gone. I think they forget the 850 million ounces comes out of the ground every year.
Viking
Yellow Jacket
Viking
Yellow Jacket
Viking
Yellow Jacket
Industrial demand alone is purportedly 900M ozt / year right now.
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Yes, that's the primary reason this bull run started in the first place. After 5 years of this, stores of metal were dropping, and the up cycle started. As prices rose "new" supply in the form of stored investment metal (and other recycle sources) came in to partially offset the shortage. But much of the investment metal is held in strong hands and much of that will not sell until silver hits 150, etc. As the price continues to go up, more silver will come out into the open for purchase, but I suspect the price vs additional recycle will see diminishing returns, and eventually a point will be reached where demand cannot be met. As that point comes closer, industrial users, seeing that train coming at them. will be frantically searching for less expensive alternatives, and for some needs, they will find a work-around. Those industrial needs with an alternative will exit the silver market. For other needs, at least in the near-term, there will be no practical alternative, so silver prices will go up until demand balances supply. At least in theory.
From what I'm reading, scrap recycling is already running full capacity. I don't think "new" supply via investors selling will materially affect silver production/supply. Refineries are already backlogged 6mos - 1 year reportedly. Silver is going to rise until industry finds a pain point.
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Hindsight will be 20/20. So what would a COMEX delivery failure mean? Would deep pockets simply come in and bail them out with cash? If so, why, and who would that be? Would the Chinese come in and buy the COMEX and operate it as their western Shanghai branch?
Where is the silver going? To Shanghai? Elsewhere? All the above?
If COMEX closed, selling without a hedge option would take on additional risk. It would become difficult to find metal because dealer would not want to buy, or sell. Premiums would skyrocket to cover the risk. Would the Chinese merely point to their market and say, you need to hedge? Hedge here, we've got you covered. If COMEX disappears altogether, as well as LMBA, then they (the Chinese) will have successfully completed their objective of taking over the PM marketplace. And then the controls tighten, and tighten...
Where is the silver going? To Shanghai? Elsewhere? All the above?
If COMEX closed, selling without a hedge option would take on additional risk. It would become difficult to find metal because dealer would not want to buy, or sell. Premiums would skyrocket to cover the risk. Would the Chinese merely point to their market and say, you need to hedge? Hedge here, we've got you covered. If COMEX disappears altogether, as well as LMBA, then they (the Chinese) will have successfully completed their objective of taking over the PM marketplace. And then the controls tighten, and tighten...
I don't see that happening soon... https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-demand-drivers-and-vault-totals.6364/page-13#-lease-rate
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I cant find anything on last years demand. 2024 was 680 million. 900 million would be a substantial increase over 2024. I can certainly see that happening if industry started stockpiling it as a critical metal.
The silver institute did have 2025 numbers already. They say 677 million for industrial.
I was including photography and jewelry with industrial per a discussion I had recently where someone was differentiating investment + silverware:
You can split hairs with the definition of "industrial", but investment demand is only ~200M
You can split hairs with the definition of "industrial", but investment demand is only ~200M
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From the table above:
Last 5 years, demand has totaled 796.3 million ounces more than supply.
In the prior 5 years, supply totaled 184.6 million ounces more than demand.
Total balance for 10 years, 611.7 ounces more demand than supply.
I don't know about the prior 10 years, or the 10 years before that, but I suspect that all of the "free float" has been used up.
A major difference between silver and gold is that a significant amount of the industrial use of silver is never recovered (though the proportion will change as price goes up).
Going forward, no reason to expect that supply will change significantly in the next few years. Sure, new and previously shuttered mines will eventually come on line, but those take several years to start/restart.
Demand for the next few years is unclear, since price will change demand. But if industrial users and sovereign nations are now stockpiling silver, we may see a spike in demand for a few years, despite price increases.
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Kieth Nuemeyer doesn't think the Is even puts out real data anymore. How could 2025 recycling numbers be the same as 2024 but the refiners are backed up as long as they are? That alone doesn't make sense.
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As I understand it, the refiners are primarily backed up with remelting and re-pouring (not refining, not recycle) various sizes of 0.999 stock (coins, rounds, small bars) into 1000 oz COMEX and LBDA good delivery bars.
Everything in the Silver Institute is a lie/made up anyway. I wouldn't spend much time on it.
We will start seeing what the market demands when we get prices ACTUALLY set by supply and demand. But the trickle of silver coming back in from stackers is going to be a pittance for Industry. If they haven't already made arraignments they will be SOL.
We will start seeing what the market demands when we get prices ACTUALLY set by supply and demand. But the trickle of silver coming back in from stackers is going to be a pittance for Industry. If they haven't already made arraignments they will be SOL.
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From Business Focus HK (had to use translate)
China's mysterious billionaire Bian Ximing made a profit of 23.4 billion yuan by buying gold last week and earning another 2.3 billion yuan by selling silver with his backhand last week
The Chinese version of Soros made a laugh by selling blank silver! Bian Ximing, a mysterious Chinese billionaire who once bet on the rise of gold in 2022 and made a crazy profit of US$30 billion (about HK$234 billion), has reportedly turned his attention to silver recently, and he is on the verge of collapse after the recent rapid surge, and now holds a short position of silver worth nearly US$300 million (about 450 tons), so since the price of silver plummeted last week, he has made another profit of about US$2.88 billion (about HK$2.25 billion). Some Chinese netizens have already praised Bian Ximing as a brilliant speculator of China's Soros level. However, in recent years, it has been reported that even mainland residents who speculate in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in Hong Kong securities firms will also be subject to a 20% "annual profit from stock trading" as a tax, and China also prohibits anyone from causing financial turmoil in the country.
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文章版權為 BusinessFocus 所有，閱讀全文： https://businessfocus.io/article/34...nt&utm_source=BFHK&utm_medium=Web-CopyContent
due to the fact that domestic refining capacity was basicly overwhelmed in less than 30days, i suspect refining capacity is woefully short and will not make a meaningful dent in adding supply ........also seems much of the offshore refining is located in china and exporting controls were recently added which could complicate adding supplies...... i guess it seems to me to be refining is the major bottleneck worldwide ..... so even if mining supply is increased there still may be deficits till refining capacity increases .... my thought is the only way to balance the supply demand equation currently would be a decrease in demand due to pricing driving ussage to other metals if possible .........
this is just my gut speculation
Viking
Yellow Jacket
There are no specs left to rinse idiots. Just raise it to 100% already. Then we can see what a real physical pricing market is like.
So it went from a couple fixed rates to 9%, then 11%, then 15%, and next week 18%
So it went from a couple fixed rates to 9%, then 11%, then 15%, and next week 18%
It is interesting that this news came out Before the futures stopped trading for the weekend. Usually this means they attack it that night or the next day. Probably ran stonks up all day today so they have a bit more ammo and excuse to attack everything on Monday again.
I know that if I was still a spec in the market I'd be closing right Fing now... but silver is up a bit if nothing on this news.
I know that if I was still a spec in the market I'd be closing right Fing now... but silver is up a bit if nothing on this news.