2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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What's going on with DelMonte folks??

Del Monte filed Chapter 11 in July 2025, leading to closure of its Modesto and Hughson plants in April 2026 and about $550 million in potential losses for growers reliant on the processor.

 
I see a lot of pundits/chartists on X saying $78 is/was a critical price level for silver today. Breaking through $78 is technically significant for bullish upside. I'm not a chartist, but what I'm seeing with vault stock movements tells me we are close to a bottom. :popcorn:
 
pmbug said:
I see a lot of pundits/chartists on X saying $78 is/was a critical price level for silver today. Breaking through $78 is technically significant for bullish upside. I'm not a chartist, but what I'm seeing with vault stock movements tells me we are close to a bottom. :popcorn:
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i am used to seeing a significant bottom peak blowoff (just like a top blowoff) before you get sharp upswings, which i havent really seen here yet, maybe the initial big drop covers that, hopefully this is a consolidation and climb action, but i am not convinced yet as we haven't threatened the 200dma yet
 
Voodoo said:
I think Claude did a good video that aligns with my thinking today on Silver chart.

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....used to follow him for years, kinda lost track of him the last 5+yrs, thx for the post it let me subscribe to his youtube feed.....he in the past had a good track record doing chart analyses
 


"We are now entering that phase where governments begin tightening their grip on capital. It starts subtly. Expanded IRS reporting requirements. Increased scrutiny on bank transactions. Lower thresholds for what is considered “suspicious activity.” These are not random policy decisions. They are part of a broader shift toward monitoring and ultimately controlling the movement of money."
 

Who crashed Gold? Should we wait for future dips? Discussion with Nicholas Ward.​



and if you like to read... summarized by GROK:

Here's a clear summary of the YouTube video "Who crashed Gold? Should we wait for future dips? Discussion with Nicholas Ward" by Clive Thompson (uploaded April 17, 2026): Main TopicThe video analyzes the recent sharp sell-off in gold prices — a ~20% drop from its all-time high of around $5,589/oz in late January 2026 to lower levels by late March. This was one of the largest single-week declines since 1983. Host Clive Thompson discusses the causes and outlook with Nicholas Ward of Gold Bullion Partners.What Caused the "Crash"?The drop wasn't driven by weakening fundamentals but by a temporary, violent liquidity cascade in the paper gold market:
  • Central bank liquidations: Several countries sold gold for emergency liquidity amid oil price spikes, currency pressures, and geopolitical needs. Examples include Turkey (60 tons in two weeks to defend its currency), Russia (selling to fund the Ukraine war), and Poland considering monetizing 550 tons for defense.
  • COMEX margin rule changes: Shifts to percentage-based margins led to multiple hikes in a short period, triggering forced selling and a liquidation cascade among leveraged retail traders. The COMEX is mostly a paper market (only ~5% of contracts result in physical delivery).
  • Stronger US dollar: The DXY rose ~6% since the war escalated, making gold more expensive for non-US buyers and creating a negative feedback loop.
Additional factors mentioned include France repatriating and selling ~130 tons of old gold stored in US vaults (echoing 1971 tensions), with Germany also considering moves due to safety concerns.The Physical Market PictureDespite the paper price crash, the physical gold market remains strong:
  • Record deliveries and strong demand (especially from China via ETFs and the Shanghai Gold Exchange).
  • Shrinking inventories (gold available for immediate delivery down ~25%).
  • Resilient buying from safe-haven demand, portfolio diversification, and long-term structural drivers.
The speakers view this as a short-term liquidity event (historically lasting 4–6 weeks) rather than a structural bear market.Outlook and Advice
  • Fundamentals are still highly supportive for gold long-term: persistent inflation risks, dollar debasement, rising government debt/deficits, dedollarization trends (e.g., BRICS moves, China-Saudi oil trades in gold), geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying.
  • Gold is still up significantly (~47%) over the past 12 months (from ~$3,190 in March 2025).
  • Recommendation: Don't panic-sell. This is viewed as a buying opportunity ("buy the dip") rather than waiting for further declines, though timing is uncertain.
  • Silver gets a mention as potentially poised for a squeeze due to declining COMEX stocks and strong industrial demand (electronics, etc.).
Other NotesThe discussion covers storage options (e.g., neutral jurisdictions like Switzerland to minimize VAT), geopolitical risks (oil prices near $95/barrel, potential Strait of Hormuz issues), and promotional elements for Gold Bullion Partners and US precious metals dealers (Birch Gold, ITM Trading).Overall tone: Cautiously bullish on gold. The crash is explained as a paper-market overreaction amid strong underlying physical and structural demand. The video runs about 55 minutes and includes a full transcript on the YouTube page.If you'd like a more detailed breakdown of specific sections or timestamps, let me know!
 


🚨🇨🇳 Chinese scientists develop breakthrough membrane for critical metal extraction

Inspired by biological calcium channels, the eco-friendly membrane separation method reduces pollution, energy use, and chemical waste, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences

The technology efficiently extracts metals like uranium, copper, and gold, with the potential to address supply shortages and environmental concerns

This could revolutionize metal recovery, support China's rapid growth in clean energy technologies such as wind power, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics, and strengthen the domestic mineral supply chain
 
The bank’s metals team is projecting silver could reach anywhere between $135 and $309 per ounce before the end of 2026. That is not a typo. And the reasoning behind it deserves more attention than most investors are giving it right now.

The math behind the targets

Both price targets are rooted in the gold-to-silver ratio, currently sitting at roughly 59:1, according to FastBull. The ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The higher the number, the more undervalued silver looks relative to its historical relationship with gold.

Michael Widmer, Bank of America’s head of metals research, argues that if the ratio compresses toward historical lows, silver would have to reprice sharply higher. With gold trading near $5,000, the math produces two very different scenarios.

Applying the 2011 ratio low of 32:1 gives a silver price of $135. Applying the 1980 extreme of 14:1, the level hit during the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze, produces the $309 figure, Kitco reported.

Widmer acknowledged the uncertainty directly, noting that “the price could cap at $309” rather than guaranteeing it. His broader view is that silver could still meaningfully outperform gold in 2026 even if the extreme target is never reached, according to FastBull.
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Do non-bugs listen to BoA analysts?
 
Cigarlover said:
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I drove a buddies 911S... it was a rocket.

Buddy drove it one Sunday downtown when streets were quiet. He took off at the light and in one block we were doing 60mph...!

It had 5 speeds!

He was pulled over one time for speeding. 120mph OVER the speed limit!

I couldn't afford the tickets.
 
I was thinking same thing. They are gonna run it up on the shorts then rug pull the longs like thet did in January.
 
CME will do whatever benefits them, whatever that is, unless regulations prohibit it, i dont think they give a crap about longs or shorts
 
From what I understood, open interest/volume has plummeted. They need to lower costs to play to get more players.
 
That is exactly why the Chinese are setting up their gold exchange. They are tired of the games too. Not to mention they must be acquiring 2-3k tons of gold annually.
 
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