2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Michael is always the most bullish.


Warren Buffett has the largest cash position at age 95. He thinks everything is overpriced, but I am not sure, prices can stay high as purchasing power erodes $usd. gold to 48,000? Just making a crazy guess and I think big bankers need to acquire profitable royalty companies to treat them as their bank. lol
 


Our 5th warning:

The bond market crisis is intensifying.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.

After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.

As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.

We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.

Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.

We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.

Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.
 


Our 5th warning:

The bond market crisis is intensifying.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.

After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.

As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.

We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.

Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.

We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.

Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.

Not rates but real rates... if inflation spikes (very real) then real rates turn negative even without lower interest rates which is again bullish for gold. gold can react negatively in reaction to rising inflation but unlikely but not always easy to predict when the Feds will act quickly to do rate hikes. How does that affect the 37 Trillion in debt? How are they going to absorb the interest payments? Not pretty
 
So we have about 1.5 trillion in interest payments on 40 trillion in debt. Congress borrows 2 trillion to pay the interest. The other 1/2 trillion goes to Wall Street where they make donations to congress for re election. Everyone is happy except 98% of the real American population. DC doesn't give a shit about them though.
 
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