2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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These are dark days for PMs. I never expected this. It is an expensive lesson of woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Lots of pundits are saying new highs by end of this year, but I do not see how. We are back to where nothing is analytical again and the opposite is true.
 
nickndfl said:
These are dark days for PMs. I never expected this. It is an expensive lesson of woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Lots of pundits are saying new highs by end of this year, but I do not see how. We are back to where nothing is analytical again and the opposite is true.
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Banks are still buying gold. Silver is still in a deficit. Patience Grasshopper.
 

Gold's Next Move: Armstrong Sees August Turn​

Gold has retreated from its record highs, but Martin Armstrong says the bigger story may be unfolding in global debt markets.

In this episode of Top of Mine, the veteran forecaster argues that sovereign debt pressures are mounting across Europe and parts of the Middle East, while geopolitical tensions around Iran and Taiwan continue to reshape capital flows.

Chapters:
00:00 Gold, Debt And Global Tensions
01:02 Why Capital Is Flowing Into The U.S.
02:24 Could Iran Trigger A Debt Crisis?
05:08 Europe's Debt Problem Is Growing
06:54 Taiwan And The Next Geopolitical Risk
08:47 Why Gold Has Pulled Back
10:42 Why Gold And Stocks Can Rise Together
14:06 AI, Productivity And The Economy To 2032
 
I don't believe anyrhing I hear and only half of what I see. Big shakedown in the PM markets to keep the stock markets floating.
 
Bill’s Commentary:

“The precious metals market is about to change!

Per the two articles below, China’s banks are shutting down leveraged access to paper gold assets for individual investors on July 24, 2026. This will ultimately force funds toward physical metal… these funds have been directed away from physical and into paper for many years in the West. Make no mistake, China will be THE global hub for physical gold and silver trading worldwide. They have built the infrastructure and logistics to handle huge movements of metal. China has imported massive amounts of gold this century, they also produce about 400 tons per year with none exported. It can be illustrated on the back of a napkin that they have a minimum 40,000 tons. Compare that to the US claiming to have 8,300 tons (without an audit since 1956)?

The bottom line is this, we have waited for many, many years for the mathematically inevitable, while China has methodically prepared for the same event by accumulating gold and building out the infrastructure to trade… the real metals. They know that COMEX and LBMA are paper frauds. This is a HUGE signal from China – paper bad, gold good. China waited patiently while we bankrupted ourselves with mathematical certainty. From a financial standpoint, China is in the driver’s seat. They have blown up about 1,000 fiat currencies throughout their history, they know how this ends.

The above said, I believe current pricing for gold and silver is a gift at these levels. The paper yoke of the West was broken back in December, with one last hurrah for the past 4 months. China will dictate price going forward from a physical exchange, paper will ultimately become irrelevant. If you sit on large bank balances while this earthquake shift hits, good luck sourcing product. The time to move is when you have the funds and the ability to source product, the time to “get out of the system” is now!”

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

www.BillHolter.com

Chinese banks rein in retail gold trading on volatility – MINING.COM

End of Retail Bank Gold Leverage in China as ICBC Halts Trading | NAI 500




​
 
I have a few dos pesos if HK is interested?
 
What is going on with Wendy's, WEN, 7.2 dividend looks too good...
 
Jul 8 Helicopter Musings on Gold and Silver

There is a clear and curious contrast happening right now between the gold and silver markets:

COMEX - Gold vault draining. Silver vault gaining.

Global spot prices - COMEX gold > China & India. COMEX silver < China & India

It's curious because silver EFP spreads (COMEX futures - LBMA spot) lately would seem to offer little to no arbitrage profit for moving physical silver between COMEX & LBMA. The gold EFP spreads have been very volatile with huge swings from -$41 to +$15 from one day to the next. I have no idea if players can realize arbitrage profits moving physical metal when the EFP spread fluctuates so quickly.

It would seem that the COMEX is on an island with respect to managing it's physical vault stock and one should expect higher prices (COMEX has highest [July contract] gold price lately) would encourage vault gaining (as players buy gold cheaper elsewhere and sell it on the COMEX), but that isn't what we are seeing presently.

Meanwhile, the opposite dynamic is playing out with silver. COMEX (July contract) prices are lowest and it should encourage players to buy COMEX silver to sell elsewhere, but the COMEX silver vaults are hardly seeing even a trickle of withdrawals.
 
Higher interest rates

🔴 Buckle Up! Something Bad Is Brewing In Japan's Debt Market | Chris Macintosh​

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Introduction and Bond Market Outlook
01:11 - Is the Dollar Dying? Relative Currency Value Discussion
04:10 - The Global Collapse of Fiat Currency and Inflation
05:30 - Practical Investment Responses to Currency Devaluation
08:01 - Analyzing the US vs. Japanese 10-Year Yield Differential
10:00 - The Unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade and JGB Yields
11:21 - Impact of Rising Interest Rates on "Cheap Money" Sectors (Net Zero, Tech, AI)
14:24 - Arbitrage Opportunities in Global Bond Yields
16:20 - Growth vs. Value Equities: A New Market Cycle
18:28 - Dividend Portfolio Updates and High-Yield Opportunities
21:00 - Deep Dive into Energy Sector Value: Rigs and Vessels
23:18 - The Power of Compounding Dividends in a Cyclical Bottom
24:14 - Understanding Market Cycles through a Real Estate Analogy
26:43 - Why the Energy Space is Currently Undervalued
31:04 - Lessons from Famous Hedge Fund Managers (Julian Robertson)
34:14 - Current State of Global Oil Prices and Inventory Drawdowns
37:05 - Refined Products vs. Crude Oil: Refining Capacity Issues
38:29 - Final Thoughts on Finding Value in Unloved Markets
 


Large Precious Metals dealer, Rosland Capital to liquidate after Chapter 11 filing

Bankruptcy filing details: Rosland Capital filed for Chapter 11 in Los Angeles on July 2, listing up to $10 million in assets and up to $100 million in liabilities.

Record precious metals prices, broken model: Gold's surge to $5,620 an ounce in January 2026 caused replacement costs to exceed prepaid order amounts, collapsing the firm's fulfillment model.

https://msn.com/en-us/news/insight/...SnapshotKey=GM348B221A-snapshot-0&uxmode=ruby
 
pmbug said:
Jul 8 Helicopter Musings on Gold and Silver

There is a clear and curious contrast happening right now between the gold and silver markets:

COMEX - Gold vault draining. Silver vault gaining.

Global spot prices - COMEX gold > China & India. COMEX silver < China & India

It's curious because silver EFP spreads (COMEX futures - LBMA spot) lately would seem to offer little to no arbitrage profit for moving physical silver between COMEX & LBMA. The gold EFP spreads have been very volatile with huge swings from -$41 to +$15 from one day to the next. I have no idea if players can realize arbitrage profits moving physical metal when the EFP spread fluctuates so quickly.

It would seem that the COMEX is on an island with respect to managing it's physical vault stock and one should expect higher prices (COMEX has highest [July contract] gold price lately) would encourage vault gaining (as players buy gold cheaper elsewhere and sell it on the COMEX), but that isn't what we are seeing presently.

Meanwhile, the opposite dynamic is playing out with silver. COMEX (July contract) prices are lowest and it should encourage players to buy COMEX silver to sell elsewhere, but the COMEX silver vaults are hardly seeing even a trickle of withdrawals.
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The Silver Comex trading has practically shut down for the past month or two. Other than still setting phony sales prices. Its like the players were told stay out.
 
I said last year when the yen blows.up it could take everything down. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is 225%! Fortunately, most of their bonds are owned domestically which means they are in big trouble.

Funny thing is they own the most Tbonds which means they will sell them to keep the yen from total collapse. That will eff our bond market.

My thoughrs are the Japanese should go on the US dollar to fix their economic and financial problems!
 
Bill’s Commentary:

“We have been lied to for years regarding supply and demand numbers on silver… got silver?”

The Silver Institute: A Wonderland of Compounded Errors

Over the last year or so I have sent out many a missive on silver — and the Silver Institute, but I have yet to put it all together in a comprehensive supply and demand balance sheet, and then compare my balance sheet to the one put out by the Silver Institute; so here we go.

Over the years there have been many changes in methodology in their reports; some years photography is included in industry, in others it is not. Solar only became a line item in 2010, for several years before that it was not itemised. I have been very careful to make sure that I am always comparing apples to apples.

Sorry for the length of this essay, but the more apples I turned over, the more rotten ones I found, barrels of them.

Read more here…

The Silver Institute: A Wonderland of Compounded Errors

I know a 2026 deficit of 1.3 billion ounces sounds completely crazy, and that such numbers will be seen by many as ludicrous, but what is the point of doing all the legwork, if one is then going to massage the numbers in order to fit in with the consensus and curry favour with the crowd?
silverseek.com silverseek.com

Summarized
The article “The Silver Institute: A Wonderland of Compounded Errors” by SilverSeek author John Macintosh argues that the Silver Institute systematically underestimates global silver demand while overstating supply, creating a distorted market balance sheet. Macintosh, a former CBOT trader, claims the Institute’s data contains compounded errors that obscure the true severity of the physical silver deficit.

Key criticisms include:
  • Retroactive Demand Cuts: The Institute drastically reduced historical industrial demand figures (e.g., cutting 2011 industrial demand by 145 million ounces between 2019 and 2020 reports) without explanation, a move Macintosh labels as “shoddy” and inconsistent with global economic and technological growth.
  • Contradictory Industrial Trends: Macintosh asserts that industrial silver demand should be significantly higher given the rise in electronics, EVs, and 5G, estimating it should be around 760 million ounces (excluding solar/photography) rather than the Institute’s cited 466 million ounces.
  • Flawed Supply Metrics: The Institute is accused of including non-physical financial constructs like hedging (options/futures) in its physical supply calculations, which Macintosh argues artificially inflates available supply.
  • Hidden Deficits: By understating demand and overstating supply, the Institute allegedly masks a much larger annual deficit than the 40–50 million ounces it reports, suggesting the true deficit is many multiples higher and structurally baked into the market for the foreseeable future.
Macintosh concludes that the Silver Institute’s data is consistently biased, potentially to curry favor with the industry, and that the real silver shortage is far more acute than official figures suggest.
AI-generated answer. Please verify critical facts.
 
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Lancers32 said:
Aged like whole milk left out in the Sun.
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Did you just begin stacking??
patience-young.gif
 
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