Bitcoin replacing gold in portfolios?

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Benefactor
Messages
14,488
Reaction score
4,559
Points
268
Location
Texas
United-States
There has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin (BTC) surpassing gold’s allocation in investors' portfolios as the top crypto trades near all-time highs following the launch of multiple spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the United States, but according to analyst at JPMorgan (JPM), it won’t happen anytime soon.

For BTC’s allocation to surpass that of gold, its market cap would need to rise to $3.3 trillion, JPM analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a new report. ...


At $68,254 Bitcoin's market cap is currently $1.34T. To reach $3.3T, Bitcoin will need to appreciate roughly 2.5x (ie. Bitcoin to $170k). That's in the range of what folks are predicting will happen by the end of this year or next year with the halving and spot ETFs.
 
What if it doesn't and goes to $35k instead?
 
Institutional investors and individuals have been buying both gold and bitcoin (BTC) this year, not switching between the two, as some analysts have postulated, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Thursday.

Outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a surge in bitcoin ETF inflows raised the possibility that investors were shifting from the precious metal into the cryptocurrency, the report said. The bank said it disagreed.

“Private investors and individuals have propagated both gold and bitcoin year-to-date rather than shifting from the former to the latter,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

“Beyond retail investors, speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds including momentum traders such as CTAs appear to have also propagated the rally by buying both gold and bitcoin futures since February, perhaps more heavily than retail investors,” the authors wrote.

The bank’s analysis shows a “sharp position build-up since February of $7b in bitcoin futures and $30b in gold futures.”
...

More:

 
What's stopping someone from just making another Bitcoin? Nothing

You can't replicate an element.

That's really all someone needs to know why buying Bitcoin is a bad idea unless you're just interested in rolling the dice.
 
1.png



I think this charts says that if BTC behaves like Nasdaq it's no safe heaven
It is not digital gold
 
That chart uses some scaling magic to create the picture the author wanted. It's really hard to interpret those two Y axis.

Increased and growing awareness from retail and institutional investors since 2017 created market movements that, at first appearance, seem to suggest that cryptocurrency and equities markets are correlated. However, it isn't so much a correlation as it is an indication of how cryptocurrency is being treated by the market that gives it this appearance.
...
It is possible that because investors appear to be treating cryptocurrency like stocks, digital assets can react to market influencers just like equities do. For example, on May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it was increasing its target federal funds range to 0.75%–1%. On May 5, 2022, Bitcoin fell to around $31,000. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) lost about 1,400 points, and SPX lost about 150 points. The cryptocurrency price was much more pronounced, but the effect was the same.

It is also likely that investors, as a whole, are treating cryptocurrency the way they treat equities temporarily. Cryptocurrencies are still in their price discovery phase, where the market is determining the role they will play. When they were first introduced, investors paid them no attention.

What this means is that investors should approach cryptocurrency cautiously. It is difficult to tell how the market and prices will act in the future. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could remain correlated to equities, or they might not. ...

 
Back
Top Bottom