Given the news of stolen BTC developing since Friday (over $88M worth last I checked), I thought it worth revisiting this thought experiment as I expect some BTC holders will likely start to realize that owning BTC does involve trust issues and many are not sophisticated enough to competently audit the security of their self custody solution and might be considering rotating their BTC holdings to something with a more manageable risk.
Current BTC market cap = $1.26T (per CMC)
Silver total global free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$38.4B (@ $70/ozt avg price/ozt)
Gold LBMA free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$322.5B (@ $4,200/ozt avg price/ozt)
Just a 10% rotation of Bitcoin's market cap into physical silver would create demand for more than 3 times the silver vault stock that was available from every major global market (LBMA, COMEX, SGE/SFE, MCX) a month ago (we have to wait until Friday for the LBMA's monthly report to calculate end of July totals).
10% BTC Market Cap / Silver TGFF = 3.28125
A 10% rotation of Bitcoin's market cap into physical gold would create demand for about 40% of the gold vault stock that was available from the LBMA and COMEX a month ago.
10% BTC Market Cap / Gold LBMA+COMEX FF = 0.3907
These rough estimates are using "raw" free float numbers. "Raw" means a straight calculation of reported vault stock less known allocations to ETFs/ETPs. As we saw in Jan/Feb 2025 (gold) and October 2025 (silver), the amount of that free float calculated from public reports is not totally free or liquid. If we calculate the numbers again using our best estimate for "actually liquid" free float, we see the impact would be much greater.
Silver total global "actually liquid" free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$30.7B (@ $70/ozt avg price/ozt)
10% BTC Market Cap / Silver "actually liquid" TGFF = 4.1058
If we adjust the reported LBMA silver vault stock to discount the 667 metric tons that it has reported adding over the last few months that cannot be explained by UK customs (import/export) data, we get:
Silver total global "actually liquid" "realistic" free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$29.2B (@ $70/ozt avg price/ozt)
10% BTC Market Cap / Silver "actually liquid" "realistic" TGFF = 4.3169
A 10% rotation of Bitcoin's market cap into physical silver would create demand for more than 4.3 times the actually liquid silver vault stock that was realistically available from every major global market a month ago.
Gold LBMA "actually liquid" free float is unknown (to me at least). The T+40 delivery delays as reported in early 2025 by the Financial Times occurred at a time when I was not capturing vault stock data.
Current BTC market cap = $1.26T (per CMC)
Silver total global free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$38.4B (@ $70/ozt avg price/ozt)
Gold LBMA free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$322.5B (@ $4,200/ozt avg price/ozt)
Just a 10% rotation of Bitcoin's market cap into physical silver would create demand for more than 3 times the silver vault stock that was available from every major global market (LBMA, COMEX, SGE/SFE, MCX) a month ago (we have to wait until Friday for the LBMA's monthly report to calculate end of July totals).
10% BTC Market Cap / Silver TGFF = 3.28125
A 10% rotation of Bitcoin's market cap into physical gold would create demand for about 40% of the gold vault stock that was available from the LBMA and COMEX a month ago.
10% BTC Market Cap / Gold LBMA+COMEX FF = 0.3907
These rough estimates are using "raw" free float numbers. "Raw" means a straight calculation of reported vault stock less known allocations to ETFs/ETPs. As we saw in Jan/Feb 2025 (gold) and October 2025 (silver), the amount of that free float calculated from public reports is not totally free or liquid. If we calculate the numbers again using our best estimate for "actually liquid" free float, we see the impact would be much greater.
Silver total global "actually liquid" free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$30.7B (@ $70/ozt avg price/ozt)
10% BTC Market Cap / Silver "actually liquid" TGFF = 4.1058
If we adjust the reported LBMA silver vault stock to discount the 667 metric tons that it has reported adding over the last few months that cannot be explained by UK customs (import/export) data, we get:
Silver total global "actually liquid" "realistic" free float (as of the end of JUNE) = ~$29.2B (@ $70/ozt avg price/ozt)
10% BTC Market Cap / Silver "actually liquid" "realistic" TGFF = 4.3169
A 10% rotation of Bitcoin's market cap into physical silver would create demand for more than 4.3 times the actually liquid silver vault stock that was realistically available from every major global market a month ago.
Gold LBMA "actually liquid" free float is unknown (to me at least). The T+40 delivery delays as reported in early 2025 by the Financial Times occurred at a time when I was not capturing vault stock data.
