[Chart] Financial analyst gold price forecast failure 2007-2011

[swissaustrian]

:flail:

Another sign that we're not in a bubble yet. Analysts would project insane price targets rising to eternity:

Found the chart here:
http://dailyreckoning.com/this-x-factor-controls-the-price-of-gold-stocks/

The author correctly notices that these price projections negatively influence the performance of pm miners.

 

[pmbug]

That's an impressive collection of fail. Kudos Bloomberg analysts. Kudos.

 

[swissaustrian]

That's an impressive collection of fail. Kudos Bloomberg analysts. Kudos.

This chart doesn't just show what Bloomberg forecasted, it's the "Bloomberg median analyst forecast", i.e. it's the average of all analysts which are monitored by Bloomberg's database. It's basicly a compilation of all analyst opinions from the big banks/ brokerages / networks / research firms.

 

[pmbug]

I know. The median forecasts were pathetic, ergo most of the analysts in the pool failed miserably. Perhaps I should have originally said "Bloomberg sampled analysts".

 

[swissaustrian]

After nearly every sellside analyst in the known universe has downgraded his gold price forecast in reaction to the current drop, it's finally Goldman's take:

Gold prices currently struggle to shine as a safe haven and regain its past fame, prompting analysts at Goldman Sachs to slash their gold price forecasts. For the second time in less than two months, that is.

The gold team at Goldman now sees an average price of $1,545 an ounce in 2013, down from an earlier forecast of $1,610, with average prices falling even further to $1,350 in 2014 from $1,490 expected previously.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/anoth...RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

We all know what this means... Goldman is sucking it's clients dry of gold.

 

[pmbug]

We must be near the bottom then.

 

[swissaustrian]

Hey, I was quicker than ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...treasurys-muppets-whom-it-advises-do-opposite

 

[swissaustrian]

Goldman's internal price target is 1650:

We therefore recommend initiating a short COMEX gold position as our ECS Top Trade #8, implemented through an S&P GSCI® front-month rolling index to further benefit from the contango in the COMEX future curve, targeting a move to $1,450/toz with a stop at $1,650/toz.