China reality check

pmbug

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...
Bass said the economic fallout in China could be even more severe, laying bare what he sees as a desperate shortage of U.S. dollars in the Chinese economy at a time when the Chinese Communist Party is beating back a political crisis in Hong Kong, a key conduit of foreign capital.

Bass argued that the Chinese economy has evolved in several fundamental ways over the past decade as wages for its workers have risen, making Chinese exporters less competitive relative to rivals in countries like Vietnam and Mexico. Meanwhile fears about the health of the Chinese economy, which has required ever higher debt loads to fuel ever lower levels of economic growth, have led wealthy Chinese citizens to try to move money abroad to jurisdictions that protect against government expropriation.

This behavior peaked in 2016, when a worrying decline in China’s foreign-exchange reserves led the government to impose strict controls on moving funds out of the economy. At the same time, Chinese companies have taken on increasing levels of dollar-denominated debt to enable their purchases of foreign commodities like oil and agricultural products.

“They are starting to look like a traditional emerging market, with a closed capital account and huge dollar-based borrowing,” Bass said. China’s four largest banks “in the last two years switched from huge dollar-based asset surpluses to now they have dollar-based deficits across the board.”

While the coronavirus epidemic will cause untold damage to the global economy, Bass hopes that it will help focus Americans’ minds on the unsustainability of the U.S.-China economic relationship, as American efforts to combat the disease have been hampered by an overreliance on Chinese and other foreign sources for key medical equipment and pharmaceuticals.

He said U.S. government should aid companies in efforts to bring critical supply chains back within U.S. borders and should continue to discourage American investment in Chinese firms, as the Trump Administration recently did when it restricted a federal pension fund from investing in Chinese securities.

Bass said the U.S. should go further and bar Chinese companies from raising money from the U.S., unless it submits to U.S. securities laws, including thorough audits that Chinese firms have avoided since U.S. and Chinese regulators signed a memorandum of understanding in 2013 exempting Chinese firms from those procedures.
...
The U.S. and other Western democracies may be forced to confront China more forcefully as a political crisis in Hong Kong continues to brew. ...
More: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...ut-chinas-fate-could-be-even-worse-2020-05-13

Consider also the military ships in the South China Sea playing chicken and US rhetoric over China being responsible for Covid19 fallout globally and it really seems like we are ramping up the risk for a nasty war.
 

Fiddle & Rose

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https://www.bloomberg.com/press-rel...ng-of-new-craftsman-plant-in-fort-worth-texas

Stanley Black & Decker Announces Opening of New CRAFTSMAN Plant in Fort Worth,
Texas

- New 425,000-square-foot facility is expected to be completed in late 2020,
with ground breaking in fall 2019

- The plant will manufacture a range of CRAFTSMAN mechanics tools and
incorporate the latest manufacturing technologies to optimize productivity and
sustainability

- The company will employ approximately 500 full-time employees to support the
facility
Looks like Black and Decker is starting to leave China. Also a Texas native, I'm happy with the decision.
 

rblong2us

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so getting on for 1000 sq ft of building to create one full time job ....

It will be robots doing the assembly, effectively replacing humans, somewhere.
And now we have even more power tools ( cos they are easy to make with modern robots) chasing a generation who do not do DIY, how will this all work out ?

And will they make quality tools with sealed bearings and brushless motors or will they be obliged to die after 100 hours of use ..........

I guess social distancing will not be an issue in the new facility though (-;
 

pmbug

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Well, the news said they were employing "the latest manufacturing technologies to optimize productivity and sustainability", not quality.
 

Fiddle & Rose

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I like that it says to support the facility. I want to believe it means they will cheer the robots on for min wage.
 

pmbug

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From 5/13 (post #21 above):
...
The U.S. and other Western democracies may be forced to confront China more forcefully as a political crisis in Hong Kong continues to brew. ...
Well it looks like the situation is escalating now that China has announced they are cracking down on Hong Kong.

The last time they faced a proposal that would have curbed their autonomy from mainland China, Hong Kong residents flooded the city’s streets, stormed its legislature and clashed with police amid flames and clouds of tear gas. They stared down local leaders, who they said were doing the bidding of Beijing, and ultimately the government relented.

But Hong Kong’s pro-democracy opposition movement is now confronting the prospect of Beijing imposing its will regardless of what they think.
...
Chinese leaders, enraged by months of protests last year, moved on Thursday night to take on the protesters directly, rather than maneuvering through its handpicked Hong Kong government. Chinese officials said the country’s legislative body would impose national security laws on Hong Kong, a semi-independent territory, after nearly two decades of waiting for Hong Kong’s government to enact them itself.
...
Some U.S. senators have called for sanctions on Chinese officials who carry out the security laws, and the Trump administration has warned Beijing against violating Hong Kong’s autonomy. A spokeswoman for the European Union also said officials there were “following very closely” developments related to the national security laws.
...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/world/asia/hong-kong-china-protest.html
 

Fiddle & Rose

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I feel that this might be the only time where giving guns to a revolutionary populace might come out in favor of America.

Mike Pompeo congratulating Taiwan is awesome.
 

pmbug

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The dramatic moves in Chinese stocks over the past week are inviting comparisons with a bubble that burst spectacularly five years ago.

In many ways, the pace of gains matches the market’s melt-up that started in the final weeks of 2014. ... Shares of brokerages surged as daily turnover exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan ($213 billion) for the first time since 2015, indicating increasing participation from retail investors. ...

Low interest rates and the first losses ever for some popular wealth-management products are driving China’s savers to stocks. The advance is also being aided by an enthusiastic chorus from the nation’s influential state media. A front-page editorial in the China Securities Journal on Monday said that fostering a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever. Chinese social media exploded with searches for the term “open a stock account,” with bullish sentiment also boosting the yuan.
...

Sounds legit. I wonder what reasoning they professed for asserting that a healthy bull market (in stocks) is important to the economy. What causality did they assert?
 
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