COMEX run rate factor for [R]egistered category

[pmbug]

I'm comparing the difference between the end of month total and [R]egistered vault stocks since October 1 (since the COMEX began draining heavily to support the LBMA). The total value reflects the *net* drain (inclusive of deposits). Dividing the [RW] by [TW] yields a percentage factor that can be multiplied by a drain rate to forecast the run rate for the [R] category. It's not an exact science (as estimating ever is a best guess endeavor), but it has been pretty consistent month over month.

Oct 1
Reg = 192,108,463.512
Total = 530,474,810.312

Feb 27
Reg = 88,775,861.164
Total = 357,565,373.328

Total (Net) Withdrawn [TW] = 172,909,436.984
Reg Withdrawn [RW] = 103,332,602.348

[RW] / [TW] = 59.76%


Mar 31
Reg = 76,420,296.482
Total = 327,659,953.958

Total (Net) Withdrawn [TW] = 202,814,856.354
Reg Withdrawn [RW] = 115,688,167.03

[RW] / [TW] = 57% (down from 60% at the end of February)

Run rate factor is shrinking as the COMEX withdrawals leaned more heavily on the [E]ligible category vault stock in March.


April 29

Reg = 80,834,817.664
Total = 314,627,921.169

Total (Net) Withdrawn [TW] = 215,846,889.143
Reg Withdrawn [RW] = 111,273,645.848

[RW] / [TW] = 51.55% (down from 57% at the end of March)

Run rate factor shrunk dramatically as the [R] category grew in April and 100% of vault drain is pulled from the [E] category vault stock.


Context:

 

[nickndfl]

COMEX can go to SilveStacker for more eligible inventory.

 

[Goldhedge]

Explain it to me like I'm 5...?

 

[pmbug]

Did you try reading my context post?

 

[Goldhedge]

Did you try reading my context post?

Yes, but my brain glosses over data. It's something I learned to do in grade school because of my learing disability. It gets all jumbled in my brain like a box of numbers?

If I was to hazard a guess... I'd guess the comex is running out of silver?

 

[pmbug]

Reposting my context tweet from X with some edits and emphasis for clarity:

When I talk about silver free float vault stock at the COMEX, I always consider the inventory of both Registered [R] and Eligible [E] categories. Anyone that owns metal in either category can easily (almost instantly) switch the metal from one category to the other. The [R] metal incurs slightly more fees, but otherwise they are essentially the same.

Bullion banks maintain vault stock in both categories for both their customer accounts and their house accounts. Figuring out how much COMEX vault stock is actually liquid is not a simple task and we do not have sufficient public data to determine how much of the COMEX vaulted silver (less the SLV vault stock JPM holds in the [E] category) is actually available.

Hence, the free float numbers I calculate are always upper bounds. The true extent of the liquid - actually available - free float is expected to be less, but we have no credible method for determining the difference.

<There> seems to be a somewhat common misconception that only [R] category silver is free float (ie. available). It prompted me to look back over the COMEX silver stock reports and do some number crunching...

I'll try to explain with an analogy....

Every month, you have bills to pay. You also have income, but for purposes of this analogy, your income is less than your bills. You can either pay your bills from your wallet (COMEX Registered category vault) or your wife's wallet (COMEX Eligible category vault).

Some folks think all bills must be paid from your wallet and your wife's wallet is totally independent.

When I reviewed the monthly bank statements since October, I saw that 60% of the bills were consistently covered by your wallet. The other 40% were covered by a combination of your wife's wallet + income.

That info is useful as I can forecast when your wallet will go to zero if I'm tracking the expense rate with a (5 day) moving average (which I am). Wallet balance X 60% of bills for the last 5 days = doom horizon.

That all changed last month though. Your wallet's balance grew and 100% of the bills were paid by your wife's wallet. Shame on you!