Crystal Ball Craziness

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Rickards’ analysis points the gold price to $15,000 by 2025.

“I would put [gold at $15,000 an ounce before 2025,” Rickards told Kitco News. “If you just take the average of the prior bull markets: 1971 to 1980, nine years, 2200%, 1999 to 2011, a twelve-year bull market, about 700%. Just take the average, you don’t have to go to the higher of the two or extrapolate, if you just take the average of the two you would say the next bull market is going to be a little over 10 years and it’s going to go up 1500%,” he said.
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Schiff added that at the current levels of the Dow Jones, the price of gold will have to equal $26,000 an ounce to achieve a 1:1 Dow/gold ratio.
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Rickard's prediction assumes past performance is predictive of future returns. Maybe, maybe not. One thing that is niggling the back of my brain though is that the money supply growth during the periods Rickards cites was on a much flatter slope than what is occuring right now. *If* his thesis is correct, and *if* the bull market is related to moentary policy (ie. growth of Fed balance sheet / money supply), this bull run might see more growth than he's expecting. Of course, the US and/or global economy could devolve into a destructive deflationary spiral and everything could go in the toilet.

Schiff's comment doesn't address the fact that US Equities are in a Fed created bubble and have absolutely no basis in reality anymore. I'm not sure that's really the key variable you want to use in an equation for forecasting anything.
 
Might as well say that the price of gold is going to infinity. In my lifetime, an ounce of the yellow metal was $35. For that same material, #79 on the Periodic Chart of Elements, to be valued at $15,000 is the same thing as saying that toilet paper has more value than FRNs. Who could trust the FedRes or the government at that point? Only people who are 100% dependent on the government for their livelihood. Sadly, that is an ever-growing segment of the US population. Anyway, forget gold. The real bang for your buck will come from Ag.
 
Its long been suggested that any new monetary system would have to be backed by something tangible, just like the old one once was.

If it becomes golds role to do this then it has to be able to buy a great deal more than it currently does.

As for trusting the Fed / Gov, nothing new here but if no one will accept your worthless paper then an alternative has to be found that is acceptable to others.

Silver may well do better than gold but theyve been saying that for as long as I have been following the metals (-:
 
* bump *

Silver is a strategic metal, and with mounting industrial demand it’s only a matter of time before previous all-time highs are met, and then a new push to triple digits is on the way, said Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver.

“Silver is the only commodity that is not reaching its [historic] highs, and it has reached [those highs] on two separate occasions, back in 1980 and 2011. I think we’re going to see that high breached in the cycle, and when it does, it’s going to wake up the market. Once it breaks through the $50 level, I think that it’s going to get up to the $100 level pretty quickly,” Neumeyer told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
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I could live with a >3x appreciation on my stack.
 
if hyper inflation kicks in then these prices are not unreasonable
the real question then becomes, what will my million dollars actually buy ?
 
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A monetary system collapse is coming, and the trigger will be raging inflation, said Lawrence Lepard, Equity Management Associates managing partner.
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His outlook sees gold at $2,700 one year from now, at $5,000 five years from now, and infinity in dollar terms ten years from now.

Lepard also projects bitcoin to hit $150,000 in one year and $2 million in five years.
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Mr. Lepard used to participate at the Ron Paul Forums back in the day (when Ron was running for POTUS). I'm not going to argue against his thesis, but predicting timelines is a fools errand IMO. Just keep stacking.
 
I do not find Rickards to be credible. At all. "Former CIA blah blah blah."

He's always trying to garner attention. Just strikes me the wrong way. I can't listen to any of it.

[But hey, that's just me.]
 

Rickard's prediction assumes past performance is predictive of future returns. Maybe, maybe not. One thing that is niggling the back of my brain though is that the money supply growth during the periods Rickards cites was on a much flatter slope than what is occuring right now. *If* his thesis is correct, and *if* the bull market is related to moentary policy (ie. growth of Fed balance sheet / money supply), this bull run might see more growth than he's expecting. Of course, the US and/or global economy could devolve into a destructive deflationary spiral and everything could go in the toilet.

Schiff's comment doesn't address the fact that US Equities are in a Fed created bubble and have absolutely no basis in reality anymore. I'm not sure that's really the key variable you want to use in an equation for forecasting anything.

Wow, that's weird. That is the exact number I was thinking about last night. I was getting there via Clif High and his $600 silver number that kept appearing. So trying to figure what price they might set gold at with the Gold/Silver ratio. I estimated 25 for a conservative start and that would be $15,000 gold.
 
... A long-term gold valuation model, which assumes gold will account for the majority of international reserves, suggests the gold price to exceed $8,000 in the coming decade.
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^ maybe not quite so crazy as the thread title implies and possibly underestimating the price target if the premise were realized.
 
$3k within 3 years due to demand and screwed up financials.
 
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Last week Crossborder Capital said that gold prices could push past $3,000 an ounce and Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in the next decade as central banks will be forced to cover increased government spending.
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It's not the craziest prediction. A lot could happen in 10 years (or even just 2 :paperbag: ).
 
If you are old enough to remember back when Volker raised interest rates way high to stop inflation

The 'reason' for the inflation was the Viet Nam 'conflict'....

War brings inflation - it's that simple.

Anybody see any wars going on of late?

What do you suppose will happen when the deep state gets their war to hide the financial debacle their fiat created?
 
3k gold yes. 100k bitcoin, probably not. regulations for cryptos is coming and BTC could get a bump when that happens but it will die a very quick death whenever congress decides it needs to. They will eventually shut down the on and off ramps for crypto and that will be the end of them all. They will give everyone 30 days to close them out and when that happens they all sink to 0 instantly.

Neither gold nor BTC kept pace with this recent bout of inflation. Gold did hold up better than anything else though.
 
... According to Stephan Livera, Host of the Stephan Livera Podcast and Head of Education at Swan Bitcoin, the latest rally is just the beginning before a massive bull run that will peak at around $500,000.
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Livera sees Bitcoin trading around the $30,000 level in the short term and then slowly rising to the $40,000 level into next year's halving. Following the halving, he predicts a drop, followed by the next bull run.
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"Historically, what we've seen around the halving is a bit of a rise into the halving, then a bit of a selloff after. Six to 12 months out, that's when the real crazy bull run happens, and you get 10x or 20x in the Bitcoin price at that point," Livera described.

At the end of 2024, he added that Bitcoin will likely kick off a massive rally that will see "violent moves up," peaking at around $500,000 in 2025 or early 2026.
...

 
So, I can safely assume that Livera sold anything that isn't essential, took out another mortgage on his house, (or houses) maxed out each of his credit cards and bought all the bitcoin he can?

Isn't that what you would do if you were certain that a commodity were going to explode to the upside in 18 to 30 months?

Sorry, I re-read that and now I'm left assuming that he's gonna wait until the halving takes place sometime next year.
 
... Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, ...
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... the “Bitcoin analogs” chart presented by Timmer suggests an ambitious trajectory for BTC price if it emulates past market cycles. According to this model, should BTC follow the patterns observed in 2011 and 2013, the premier cryptocurrency could soar to an approximate value of $700,000. On a more conservative note, mirroring the 2017 cycle might place BTC’s price between $200,000 and $300,000.
...

 
Half a year ago or so, BTC to $100k seemed crazy. Right now, it seems somewhat inevitable within a year or so. Thus, Cathy Wood ups the ante:
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Wood said that with more institutions entering this space, mathematically speaking, bitcoin’s price could easily rise above $3.5 million. However, she wouldn’t give a new specific price target.

“Bitcoin has miles to go,” she said instead and pointed out to her previous call of $1.5 million price target.
...


It seems rather noticeable that, while gold is currently flirting with all time highs, we aren't seeing tons of outlandish crystal ball predictions for it (yet?). Gold is trading near all time highs and there isn't an irrational FOMO market (yet?).
 
Jan Nieuwenhuijs said:
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In 2023 I speculated the gold price could reach $8,000 dollars an ounce in the decade ahead. Based on all the data I came across in writing this article I still think that is a reasonable number that would stabilize the financial system by adding more trust to it.


I'm not entirely sure that qualifies as crazy these days.
 
Rickards swaggering out to the end of the branch while carrying 200lbs of change my mind:
I’ve previously said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today, I’m updating that forecast.

My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000.

I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.

Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.

Here’s how I reached that price level forecast…

More:

 
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