Crystal Ball Craziness

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Rickard's prediction assumes past performance is predictive of future returns. Maybe, maybe not. One thing that is niggling the back of my brain though is that the money supply growth during the periods Rickards cites was on a much flatter slope than what is occuring right now. *If* his thesis is correct, and *if* the bull market is related to moentary policy (ie. growth of Fed balance sheet / money supply), this bull run might see more growth than he's expecting. Of course, the US and/or global economy could devolve into a destructive deflationary spiral and everything could go in the toilet.

Schiff's comment doesn't address the fact that US Equities are in a Fed created bubble and have absolutely no basis in reality anymore. I'm not sure that's really the key variable you want to use in an equation for forecasting anything.
 
Might as well say that the price of gold is going to infinity. In my lifetime, an ounce of the yellow metal was $35. For that same material, #79 on the Periodic Chart of Elements, to be valued at $15,000 is the same thing as saying that toilet paper has more value than FRNs. Who could trust the FedRes or the government at that point? Only people who are 100% dependent on the government for their livelihood. Sadly, that is an ever-growing segment of the US population. Anyway, forget gold. The real bang for your buck will come from Ag.
 
Its long been suggested that any new monetary system would have to be backed by something tangible, just like the old one once was.

If it becomes golds role to do this then it has to be able to buy a great deal more than it currently does.

As for trusting the Fed / Gov, nothing new here but if no one will accept your worthless paper then an alternative has to be found that is acceptable to others.

Silver may well do better than gold but theyve been saying that for as long as I have been following the metals (-:
 
* bump *



I could live with a >3x appreciation on my stack.
 
if hyper inflation kicks in then these prices are not unreasonable
the real question then becomes, what will my million dollars actually buy ?
 


Mr. Lepard used to participate at the Ron Paul Forums back in the day (when Ron was running for POTUS). I'm not going to argue against his thesis, but predicting timelines is a fools errand IMO. Just keep stacking.
 
I do not find Rickards to be credible. At all. "Former CIA blah blah blah."

He's always trying to garner attention. Just strikes me the wrong way. I can't listen to any of it.

[But hey, that's just me.]
 

Wow, that's weird. That is the exact number I was thinking about last night. I was getting there via Clif High and his $600 silver number that kept appearing. So trying to figure what price they might set gold at with the Gold/Silver ratio. I estimated 25 for a conservative start and that would be $15,000 gold.
 
... A long-term gold valuation model, which assumes gold will account for the majority of international reserves, suggests the gold price to exceed $8,000 in the coming decade.
...


^ maybe not quite so crazy as the thread title implies and possibly underestimating the price target if the premise were realized.
 
$3k within 3 years due to demand and screwed up financials.
 
...
Last week Crossborder Capital said that gold prices could push past $3,000 an ounce and Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in the next decade as central banks will be forced to cover increased government spending.
...


It's not the craziest prediction. A lot could happen in 10 years (or even just 2 ).
 
If you are old enough to remember back when Volker raised interest rates way high to stop inflation

The 'reason' for the inflation was the Viet Nam 'conflict'....

War brings inflation - it's that simple.

Anybody see any wars going on of late?

What do you suppose will happen when the deep state gets their war to hide the financial debacle their fiat created?
 
3k gold yes. 100k bitcoin, probably not. regulations for cryptos is coming and BTC could get a bump when that happens but it will die a very quick death whenever congress decides it needs to. They will eventually shut down the on and off ramps for crypto and that will be the end of them all. They will give everyone 30 days to close them out and when that happens they all sink to 0 instantly.

Neither gold nor BTC kept pace with this recent bout of inflation. Gold did hold up better than anything else though.
 

 
So, I can safely assume that Livera sold anything that isn't essential, took out another mortgage on his house, (or houses) maxed out each of his credit cards and bought all the bitcoin he can?

Isn't that what you would do if you were certain that a commodity were going to explode to the upside in 18 to 30 months?

Sorry, I re-read that and now I'm left assuming that he's gonna wait until the halving takes place sometime next year.
 

 
Half a year ago or so, BTC to $100k seemed crazy. Right now, it seems somewhat inevitable within a year or so. Thus, Cathy Wood ups the ante:

It seems rather noticeable that, while gold is currently flirting with all time highs, we aren't seeing tons of outlandish crystal ball predictions for it (yet?). Gold is trading near all time highs and there isn't an irrational FOMO market (yet?).
 
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