All vault stock quoted in metric tons:
Vault Stock = 29,219 (
from 28,985)
Free Float (FF) = 7,243 (
from 7,334)
Liquid (LFF) = 7,243 FF - 3421 illiquid (estimated from Oct 2025) = 3,822
At a spot price of $60/ozt, LFF = ~$7.37B
The LBMA is due to report their end of October silver stock report on November 6. LBMA dinosaurs apparently need 5 business days to figure out their end of the month total vault stock and even with that time, their report is not always consistent with UK silver import/export data. I calculate my own forecast estimate to keep the LBMA honest.
Last month, the LBMA came in 310 metric tons over my baseline and 677 metric tons over my "realistic" estimates. Estimating has been challenging as the dynamics for silver flows have changed a bit and my method relies upon factors derived from COMEX to LBMA flows.
When we got August UK import/export data, the UK imported a good bit of silver, but they did not import it from the USA. It was an abnormal deviation from the pattern that used to be fairly consistent.
X = A - B + (((C * D) / E) * F)
X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (28,985) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (21,975.69) ETF London vault stock as of Oct 30
C = (577.7) COMEX withdrawn for October
D = (0.4610from 0.5042) Estimated % of COMEX Withdrawn that was exported to London
E = (0.4705from 0.5167) Estimated % of total UK silver imports that came from the USA
F = (0.4135) Estimated % of NET (accounting for exports) UK monthly imports represented by UK monthly imports - Avg Oct-Aug
Note: India restarted importing silver in August. COMEX withdrawals surged in September and October. We don't know yet what breakdown of these imports went to London, Switzerland, India and other locales. My guess is that a large share went to London so this month I'm just using a single "F" factor for estimating. The average "F" factor from Nov25-Jan26 when silver was flowing from COMEX to the LBMA was ~73%. The current "F" factor spanning Nov25-Aug26 is currently ~41%. That's lower than the extreme situation following the October LBMA free float emergency, but elevated from the ~34% average that occurred from Feb26-Jul26 following the late January monkey hammer to price that alleviated pressure on delivering physical metal.
I suspect my "D" and "C" factors might be on the low side given the anomalous August silver flows, but we don't know if the silver flows have normalized yet or are continuing to be abnormal. It's very possible that my estimate this month is undershooting, but it is the most reasonable basis that I can calculate with actual data.
I did not adjust the LBMA vault stock ("A" factor in the formula) downwards according to the previous months of import discrepancies. If we factored the discrepancies for Feb-Apr + Jun-Jul, the LBMA vault stock would be ~856 metric tons lower (that represents ~22.4% of the estimated LFF).
Vault Stock = 29,219 (
from 28,985)Free Float (FF) = 7,243 (
from 7,334)Liquid (LFF) = 7,243 FF - 3421 illiquid (estimated from Oct 2025) = 3,822
At a spot price of $60/ozt, LFF = ~$7.37B
Big Picture
The LBMA is due to report their end of October silver stock report on November 6. LBMA dinosaurs apparently need 5 business days to figure out their end of the month total vault stock and even with that time, their report is not always consistent with UK silver import/export data. I calculate my own forecast estimate to keep the LBMA honest.
Last month, the LBMA came in 310 metric tons over my baseline and 677 metric tons over my "realistic" estimates. Estimating has been challenging as the dynamics for silver flows have changed a bit and my method relies upon factors derived from COMEX to LBMA flows.
When we got August UK import/export data, the UK imported a good bit of silver, but they did not import it from the USA. It was an abnormal deviation from the pattern that used to be fairly consistent.
Formula (Updated Factors through August)
X = A - B + (((C * D) / E) * F)
X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (28,985) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (21,975.69) ETF London vault stock as of Oct 30
C = (577.7) COMEX withdrawn for October
D = (0.4610
from 0.5042) Estimated % of COMEX Withdrawn that was exported to LondonE = (0.4705
from 0.5167) Estimated % of total UK silver imports that came from the USAF = (0.4135) Estimated % of NET (accounting for exports) UK monthly imports represented by UK monthly imports - Avg Oct-Aug
Note: India restarted importing silver in August. COMEX withdrawals surged in September and October. We don't know yet what breakdown of these imports went to London, Switzerland, India and other locales. My guess is that a large share went to London so this month I'm just using a single "F" factor for estimating. The average "F" factor from Nov25-Jan26 when silver was flowing from COMEX to the LBMA was ~73%. The current "F" factor spanning Nov25-Aug26 is currently ~41%. That's lower than the extreme situation following the October LBMA free float emergency, but elevated from the ~34% average that occurred from Feb26-Jul26 following the late January monkey hammer to price that alleviated pressure on delivering physical metal.
I suspect my "D" and "C" factors might be on the low side given the anomalous August silver flows, but we don't know if the silver flows have normalized yet or are continuing to be abnormal. It's very possible that my estimate this month is undershooting, but it is the most reasonable basis that I can calculate with actual data.
Commentary
I did not adjust the LBMA vault stock ("A" factor in the formula) downwards according to the previous months of import discrepancies. If we factored the discrepancies for Feb-Apr + Jun-Jul, the LBMA vault stock would be ~856 metric tons lower (that represents ~22.4% of the estimated LFF).