Gold at another new record high. Ho. Hum.

Up, down, up, down,up,down,Up, down, up, down,up,down, my neck hurts.

So many variables to consider. I dont know much about economics other then if we dont start building stuff here again were down the crapper. So many of the worlds citizens think we should worry about them and not our ownselves. Sorry but thats true.

Trump is either the great genius since Sir Issac Newton or were in for a monster of a recession. Personally I think he's playing "who blinks first". The world, China most of all, needs us more then we need them.

Military and war and History I do know and the world right now is dangling on the edge. Russia's not really at the table for 3 reasons, First and foremost a peace deal makes Putin look weak and we all know what happens then. #2, He thinks he's winning so he's holding off for a better deal. #3, The Russian's live in a Police state and are used to a poor standard of living.

Iran is ready to blow. The B-2's are fueled and armed. Irans air defense network was taken out already by the IAF so bombing them would be a walk in the park and the General's are telling Trump there will never be a better time.

So this is why you, and especially me, can't afford those 1 oz Gold Libertys we so desperately crave. I have dreams of rolling in bath tubs full of them. Now IF!, and its a big If!, America and the rest of the world make deals we can all live with. If! the Russians come to their senses as well as the Ukies. And If? Iran gives up its dream of nukes then we can all hold hands in a circle around the sacred Baobab tree to sing "give peace a chance", the price of gold will come down drastically, or at least $3,000 oz. .

Yeah but its not going to happen. I spent 18 mos in the MidEast and Iran has invested billions into their nuke program while learning from the mistakes of others. Their enrichment facilities are widely dispersed, mostly hidden and/or sunk deep, and it would take a prolonged campaign to even slow it down. Remember ? This is a bunch who sent 10 yo's barefoot thru minefields to clear them for the infantry during their war with Iraq.

Sorry for the prolonged post but I dont think were going to see $3,000 gold ever again.

I think we'll see $3k for a few minutes, this month, maybe next...but that's it.

We cannot. Because the inflation bubble ever grows. We won't see a lot of today's prices ever again - eggs will stay at $10 levels, but $10 will be what you give a kid to buy cotton candy at the fair.

No, I think the $10k predictions are probably right. Because not only is inflation here to stay, it's accelerating exponentially.

"China most of all, needs us more then we need them"

I agree with a lot of what you said but you need to tap the brakes on this statement.

China produces much of our pharmaceuticals.

They have vast resources of rare earth minerals that we would have a difficult time replacing from other sources.

Beyond rare earth metals, China is a dominant player in battery material refining, especially for lithium, cobalt, and graphite—critical for electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Don't forget all the electronics, especially everyone's beloved iPhones.

Also while a lot of what they produce we call "cheap junk" much of it isn't. China’s vast manufacturing infrastructure allows it to produce goods at an unmatched scale and cost efficiency.

Textiles is another area where we wouldn't be able to find a suitable replacement at a suitable cost.

They've also made great strides in AI.

I don't know exactly how I'd score it, but I wouldn't let the phrase "they need us more than we need them" roll of my tongue so easily.

JayDubya said:

"China most of all, needs us more then we need them"

I agree with a lot of what you said but you need to tap the brakes on this statement.

China produces much of our pharmaceuticals.

They have vast resources of rare earth minerals that we would have a difficult time replacing from other sources.

Beyond rare earth metals, China is a dominant player in battery material refining, especially for lithium, cobalt, and graphite—critical for electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Don't forget all the electronics, especially everyone's beloved iPhones.

Also while a lot of what they produce we call "cheap junk" much of it isn't. China’s vast manufacturing infrastructure allows it to produce goods at an unmatched scale and cost efficiency.

Textiles is another area where we wouldn't be able to find a suitable replacement at a suitable cost.

They've also made great strides in AI.

I don't know exactly how I'd score it, but I wouldn't let the phrase "they need us more than we need them" roll of my tongue so easily.

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i agree.......this china thing is going to be hard on both, its really hard to put it all in words on a forum...but this will not be a cake walk...but to even begin to compete we will need legal migrant workers and automation

i do belive that the only path going forward that the population will allow is dollar devaluation ...so scarce commodities will track that

due to USs military production complex i dont see how they can ever survive without a war going on to dump munitions and test tech in a ongoing basis and military strength is definitely a major leg of the stool that the US sits on to retain superpower status

I'd also add that China has been making decent progress with Fusion.

JayDubya said:

"China most of all, needs us more then we need them"

I agree with a lot of what you said but you need to tap the brakes on this statement.

China produces much of our pharmaceuticals.

They have vast resources of rare earth minerals that we would have a difficult time replacing from other sources.

Beyond rare earth metals, China is a dominant player in battery material refining, especially for lithium, cobalt, and graphite—critical for electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Don't forget all the electronics, especially everyone's beloved iPhones.

Also while a lot of what they produce we call "cheap junk" much of it isn't. China’s vast manufacturing infrastructure allows it to produce goods at an unmatched scale and cost efficiency.

Textiles is another area where we wouldn't be able to find a suitable replacement at a suitable cost.

They've also made great strides in AI.

I don't know exactly how I'd score it, but I wouldn't let the phrase "they need us more than we need them" roll of my tongue so easily.

Click to expand...

China does need us more than we need them.

Why? First, because China has no consumer middle-class. There is NO DOMESTIC MARKET for what they produce.

At the prices they sell it, they cannot afford design or development, and cannot afford to pay their people more than at a sustenance level. That's WHY they have the contracts to MAKE...what OTHERS design. Not because of quality work.

So nobody in their slave-labor-camp nation, except for a small politically-connected bourgeoisie class, can AFFORD those things.

It's not a self-contained economic circle - not like the way that buyers wanted Model Ts enough to buy them at prices that enabled Henry to offer a $5 day, and then his employees were able to buy meat, homes, clothing, and other discretionary purchases.

And China will NOT be able to MOVE to that economy, because they have no tradition/establishment of engineering firms or departments, no quality assembly, no marketing experience. If they sold at prices that enabled their workers to participate in the economy...their companies would go broke, because imported Japanese, Korean, even European goods would be the same price and higher quality.

While historically China lacked a significant consumer middle class, that has changed drastically in recent decades. Some estimates show China’s middle class is now in the hundreds of millions. That's a substantial domestic market. Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have thriving middle-class consumers who drive demand for luxury goods, technology, and even domestic brands.

Again, while China has historically been seen as a manufacturer for foreign designs (mass-producing products designed elsewhere based on foreign company's specifications) they have significantly improved in research, engineering, and innovation. Companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, BYD, and Lenovo showcase China's ability to design competitive, high-tech products.

Chinese brands are also gaining traction internationally, competing with American, Japanese, and European firms in sectors like smartphones and electric vehicles.

China is the largest supplier of American consumer goods, components, and raw materials.

Its control over critical raw materials (such as rare earth elements I mentioned previously) and their leadership in sectors like AI, green energy, and even some of their infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative indicate that China's economic future is not solely tied to American demand.

Chinese exports to the US

Chinese exports by country

US exports by country

Whats clear is that the US doesn't export anything compared to China. Europe combined is a little bit more of a trading partner with China than the US is so a larger market. What's not clear is what US companies in China are exporting to the US and abroad. So basically if we subtracted US companies like say Apple, how does that affect the Chinese export numbers?

We should also point out that China holds about 800 billion in US debt and we need them to not only keep holding it but buy more if we are going to continue to live above our means.

I would also like to now the impact on US consumers if we no longer have cheap wage earners in China producing for us. Yes other countries can step in at similar wages but none are able to do so any faster than the US could ramp up manufacturing.
In contrast the Chinese people will continue to consume at the rates they do since they are consuming locally and no costs will be added unless raw materials come from the US. The US cant say the same.

So although I am no economist, I wouldn't be so quick to say that China needs us more than we need them.

Production is the foundation of wealth. Weather that be farming, manufacturing or mining, that's where wealth is created. Here in the west we think it's created in the stock market and by the money printing machines but what good is paper money if you have no manufacturing producing goods to spend it on?
China is the manufacturing powerhouse and they understand the above principle and play the long game. The US used to understand this but we got soft and lazy and forgot this.

China does need us more than we need them.

Why? First, because China has no consumer middle-class. There is NO DOMESTIC MARKET for what they produce.

Click to expand...

1. How does China’s number of millionaires compare to the rest of the world?​

China ranks second globally in terms of its millionaire population, with 6.2 million individuals, trailing only the United States, which has over 22.7 million millionaires. Despite being second, China’s rate of wealth growth has been significantly higher than many other nations, suggesting its millionaire population will continue to expand.

2. What is the average wealth of a person in China?​

According to recent reports, the average Chinese citizen has a wealth of around $26,752. This surpasses the average wealth of many European countries and highlights the significant economic progress achieved in the last few decades.

JayDubya said:

While historically China lacked a significant consumer middle class, that has changed drastically in recent decades. Some estimates show China’s middle class is now in the hundreds of millions. That's a substantial domestic market. Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have thriving middle-class consumers who drive demand for luxury goods, technology, and even domestic brands.

Again, while China has historically been seen as a manufacturer for foreign designs (mass-producing products designed elsewhere based on foreign company's specifications) they have significantly improved in research, engineering, and innovation. Companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, BYD, and Lenovo showcase China's ability to design competitive, high-tech products.

Chinese brands are also gaining traction internationally, competing with American, Japanese, and European firms in sectors like smartphones and electric vehicles.

China is the largest supplier of American consumer goods, components, and raw materials.

Its control over critical raw materials (such as rare earth elements I mentioned previously) and their leadership in sectors like AI, green energy, and even some of their infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative indicate that China's economic future is not solely tied to American demand.

Click to expand...

I mean no disrespect CJ but we keep pointing out examples of what China has become and you seem to be stuck in the 70's version of China. China has mega cities with millions of middle class. If they cant buy domestic products who is producing products cheaper than China and exporting them to China for the middle class to buy?

Jaydub I think you and I were making the same argument at the same time. LOL.

Cigarlover said:

I mean no disrespect CJ but we keep pointing out examples of what China has become and you seem to be stuck in the 70's version of China. China has mega cities with millions of middle class. If they cant buy domestic products who is producing products cheaper than China and exporting them to China for the middle class to buy?

Jaydub I think you and I were making the same argument at the same time. LOL.

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Somehow, we don't have to worry about suicides on shop floors.

Somehow, their vibrant consumer economy, with all the products that middle-class citizens with disposable income, would BUY...doesn't come to appear anywhere.

What I see is a Potemkin Village - hiding a mercantile slave camp. They are NOT rich as a people, nor are they in any way, shape, manner or form, wealthy, across the board.

Their government, like all totalitarian tyrannies, is intent on KEEPING THEM DOWN. Ergo the Social Credit Scores they use. Do happy, prosperous people need to be CONTROLLED this way? Does it EVER appear that way in a prosperous economy?

I don't know if you're being duped or if there's something uglier at work here, but I ain't buying it. Just like Chinese aren't buying Chinese schitt. Partly because the Chinese don't know how to design it - or sell it.

No, I'm not stuck in the 1970s. That was their era of trench graves and the Great Stumble Forward. Again, quite a bit different even from our own revolution. For one, we never held mass executions for political differences.

Casey Jones said:

I think we'll see $3k for a few minutes, this month, maybe next...but that's it.

We cannot. Because the inflation bubble ever grows. We won't see a lot of today's prices ever again - eggs will stay at $10 levels, but $10 will be what you give a kid to buy cotton candy at the fair.

No, I think the $10k predictions are probably right. Because not only is inflation here to stay, it's accelerating exponentially.

Click to expand...

Yes, and then theres that. I didn't mention inflation because its such a given I guess. Its certainly not a vehicle for lower gold prices.

But no I must respectfully disagree about China. China is no rising Dragon in Asia. Its more a slithering worm on the edge of collapse. Its housing market is a disaster because it used residential and business housing projects as a way to keep unemployment low thru construction jobs. The problem is there just isn't the people and businesses available to rent them so their housing market is imploding. Theres just way to much living and office space and way to less demand. This equal to way cheaper rents and way to much empty space. Theres just to many loans out for these propertys and to many defaults on those loans.

They rely on their factories to churn out goods to keep people employed and any slow down with their #1 market, America, causes them huge problems that dribble down the economic/production chain and affects all their other countries of export. Its not a question of selling off to others at a cheaper price ; Its the reality that there is simply nowhere else to dump product. The market is already saturated. Its a question of excess capacity, in everything. Its citizens sense the coming storm and are afraid to spend, making the problem even worse. Any statistics posted by the CCP can't be trusted as they simply Lie about everything.

Its really a question of perception. When a real estate market is booming people believe they are wealthy and are willing to spend. When it isn't they then want to horde what wealth they have. This is called 'deflation" and its even worse then "inflation". Trumps tariffs couldn't have come at a worse time for China.

And actually the tariffs aren't even their worst problems. Their "worst" already existed and the tariffs and trade issues only exacerbated them. They have an embedded Demographic time bomb in their population they have no answers for. Even if the one child policy is no longer law its effects still persist. The Chinese simply aren't making enough babies because children are expensive and they want a higher standard of living. They still abort daughters because son's are a better bet to care for aging parents,thus, there are far to many males and far to few females for marriage. Also when the policy was law those that had more then one kid, and many did, had to do so on the sly so the kid was left out of proper schooling and other state benefits. Those kids are now in the work force and most have few skills to earn with.

I could go on and on. Xi just isn't much of an economist and he has stacked the Politburo with cronies and sycophants. Like any autocracy in history he places loyalty above ability and the bottom line is Dictatorships have just never been as economic resilient as Democracy's and the only reason this discussion is even happening is because China plays by no rules, respects no Laws or rules economic most of all, and we elected stupid greedy little people. We just had to endure 4 years of two morons and their cabal who put us in an even worse economic position to bargain with.

Yes.

Conventional Wisdom, grown on horse dung.

China is the Coming Thing.

Unsaid but pointedly intended is: We should be like China.

That warms the hearts of would-be authoritarians everywhere. ALL of whom assume they'll be one of the Chosen, and not one of those denied access on even a city bus, because of their Social Credit score.

No, I don't think a vibrant and prosperous economy comes from authoritarian dictatorship, a mercantile economy, and police-state tactics. History doesn't think so, either.

Others can believe as they like.

Until the old Covid nonsense, I also believed China ‘bad’ but I found myself on various forums where folk claimed to live in China, including westerners who had settled there .
What they described was not what we were being told -

Yes if you want to travel to another province, you had to notify but there was never any refusal from authorities.
Yes there were credit scores but again they seemed to only be a problem for folk with criminal records.

The Uyghur communities were generally treated well but there were some trouble makers, possibly Soros funded, who caused a lot of trouble ……

Generally, people got on and lived their lives and there was enough of what folk needed.

These commenters only seemed to light up when western folk were trotting out the official western narrative .

So I reflected on where I got my info on China and realised that it all came from western sources including the likes of Zero Hedge, who have been predicting the imminent collapse of everything Chinese for as long as I can remember.

I now take any China narrative with a lot more caution and allow for the possibility that vested interests want me to believe something.

As for the overheated property sector, do any of us remember why China went mad with construction?
Back in the days of the great financial collapse c 2012, we ( the west) persuaded them that it was their turn to prop up the world’s collapsing economies and currencies.
They duly stepped up and held the world economy together but ended up with a lot of buildings that no one wanted .
And now we cheerfully point out how stupid they were to overbuild.

Not saying I know what really goes on but having watched the ‘Russia bad’ story that was launched in 2022 and realised that we are consistently lied to, so now I seek information from sources that feel more honest.

The Russia-bad story has been around a long time—remember the school drills about being bombed? Russians had the same drills and how dangerous the US was.

Chinese were told we introduced covid to kill THEM.

I will say: their culture is not on right/wrong but on honor/dishonor. It’s not wrong for them to screw over us as their competitor, unless it brings them dishonor. And they want every penny they can save, even it it cheats you.

Edit: a sister in law and a brother in law speak chinese, born mainland and Taiwan, and seven bro and sis in-laws speak russian, born there and here. Their perception of America, was land of opportunity, and the gov is out to get us all.

No, I don't think a vibrant and prosperous economy comes from authoritarian dictatorship

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I agree with this statement. Sadly that's pretty much what we had here in the US back during Cvid. How many small businesses went out of business because of the authoritarian masters in each state. How many lost their jobs for refusing the jab? How many of our dictators packed elderly into homes and murdered them with respirators and jabs? Surely everyone is aware of the MSM propaganda. There is no truth in the US anymore except from independent media sources. The MSM is dead. Completely controlled by the 3 letter agencies, one in particular.
Yes we are still better off than China but only for now since Trump is in office. The left is openly calling for death to conservatives. The rhetoric is just getting started though. If it catches on, and with the left it will, this is going to be a very different country.

For now we will have to agree to disagree about China. IMO China is just getting started. They openly tell their citizens to buy gold. When was the last time we heard that in the US? Not sure how all those poor people are buying gold or real estate or even food. (Sarcasm). Yes if you work at an iPhone factory life probably sucks. Is that on the Chinese or is that on us for demanding so many iPhones? I dont see anyone blaming APPL or any other corporation for abusing the Chinese but that's what it is. China of course is happy to help.
As for their engineers, they are working on fusion tech and put a lander on the moon. In contrast Boeing cant go to the space station and back let alone the moon.

Here's a good graphic you can watch pretty quickly on Chinas trade versus the US since 2001. China completely blows the US away.

As I said in my last post, Wealth comes from production not money printing. China is the worlds producer. The rest of the world isn't even trying. There is a temporary pause with Trump in office but as soon as the left takes control again they will continue to turn the US into a 3rd world shithole. Our politicians dream is to have total control and eliminate as much freedom as possible. No-one is going to stop them either. There was 0 pushback over the last 4 years as the Biden brigade imported millions of illegals, terrorists and gang bangers. If we are lucky Trump will eliminate 3 million by the time his term is up. This is the main reason I am so hard on this administration for lack of arrests. Unless these politicians and bureaucrats are thrown in prison they will continue on with their plan.

These guys used to live and motorcycle around China. Interesting perspectives.

Let's be clear. I am not pro China and anti America.
And while I agree with what was presented in the video above, the fact still stands, and he says so himself the 14:25 mark, two things can exist at the same time.

I don't doubt many Chinese people are living in poverty.

He says "One shouldn't be pretended that it doesn't exist."

Let's be honest, we could do the same thing here. We could show NYC and LA while ignoring Appalachia or parts of Mississippi, etc.

And let's be honest again. There is a huge difference between the government of a country of the general populace of a country. There is a huge difference between the manufacturing sector of a country of the general populace of a country. There is a huge difference between the investment and financial sector of a country of the general populace of a country. And on and on.

There's a huge difference between Wall street and the general populace of the US, between DC and the general populace, between silicon valley and the general populace, etc.

I'm not saying China is this great wondrous place.

I'm saying two things can exist at the same time and while it has it's issues it also has it's achievements and advances and we'd be foolish to ignore them.

The balance is not so well defined. I don't know where it lies, but I don't believe it's that easily defined and so clear cut as to be able to say they need us more than we need them.

Cigarlover said:

I agree with this statement. Sadly that's pretty much what we had here in the US back during Cvid.

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Yes. And there are those, especially in the Political Elite ranks, who want moar of it.

And this is part of the "normalization" of China - its authoritarianism, with a smiley-face. Social-credit ratings are GOOD. Good if you want fewer of Those People flying, traveling, stinking up your favorite restaurant.

We need moar CONTROL. Of "Those People." We hear it from the muthaWEFfers, and we hear it from Dumbo Cracks, and now we're hearing from those who either believe the fantasy the CCP paints to the world, or who have reasons to push it.

The aim is to get more centralized power, more social-control, more medical tyranny government health-care, and make Those People into good little comrades, to serve "our people." The fantasy of benevolent tyranny...today, it's masked with the (false) promise of technocratic competence.

I'm not buying it. What I've heard out of China - not deep-diving - does not paint a wonderful picture. NO comfortable retirement. NO luxury condos or suburban homes. Hovels and bunkrooms, for the working class. We're not told how much meat the less-successful are allowed, but given their small size, I'd bet it's not much.

And what I HAVE had a lot of experience with, is Chinese-made goods. Televisions. VCRs when they were a Thing. Phones - the old landline type. Radios. Two Chinese small motorcycles - one new, but heavily discounted ($2000) and one used ($350). The new one rounded the camshaft driven sprocket at 2500 miles. The used one was making a rod knock...1300 miles, but stored outside some years.

No. You can believe what you like, but I am firmly convinced, China is a mercantile slave colony with some aggressive PR and false imaging/advertising. It will NOT survive, in its current form, without the US.

If the US economy collapses, they go right back to where they were in 1980 - a giant starvation-army military post, fed by a few million starving peasants working rice fields. Who will have had their sons press-ganged into that military.