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Where do you think we are on this list?

JIM'S FORMULA
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continued until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the existing dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
 
Funny thing is if the morons in office reduced regulation of the domestic oil industry it would open production and lower prices and inflation without crashing the economy. That's MacroEco101.
 
Loose tangent to the OP:
The run-up in gold prices since November has been dramatic, but those gains have just scratched the surface of the precious metal’s potential, according to Rick Rule, former CEO of Sprott Holdings and founder of Rule Investment Media.

“It's important to consider how far gold can go,” Rule said. “Precious metals-related investments comprise less than one half of one percent of all savings in investment asset classes in the United States. The four-decade mean market share is two percent.”

Rule told Kitco News reporter Ernest Hoffman on May 10 that the combination of negative real interest rates, quantitative easing, debt and deficits will propel gold's investment market share to the four-decade mean at a minimum. “If that's correct, demand for precious metals-related assets will increase fourfold, which is precisely what I think is going to happen.”
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