Gold Market 260610

[pmbug]

Jun 10 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $4,223.63
SGE Spot $4,206.03 (~$11 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $4,168.82
COMEX Jun26 Futures $4,327.20 ($2.01 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
MCX Futures $4,137.14
IBJA Spot $4,084.68 (~$84 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened ~$4,350 and closed ~$4,260, and has fallen to ~$4,160 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:36 : $4,168.82

Jun26 = -$1.29 vs -$2.01 Previously (spot @ 05:02 : $4,167.29)
Jul26 = +$9.05 vs +$8.84 (spot @ 06:34 : $4,165.95)
Aug26 = +$19.28 vs +$21.24

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread remains slightly negative. It's probably not sufficient arbitrage profit to encourage sending gold to London/LBMA.

India ​

MCX Aug26 [GOLD 1kg] : $4,867.22 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,137.14)
IBJA PM spot : $4,805.50 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,084.68)

The IBJA spot to LBMA spot discount was >$100 ever since May 13 or so when India imposed higher import duties and outright import restrictions. This morning the discount has shrunk below $100.

China ​

SGE $4,206.03(no VAT)
SFE $4,223.63

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11 (=from ~$11)
SFE premium to SGE = $17.60 (from -$12.03)


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Jun 10 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD168K
COMEX90K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~5.8% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 16,450d (from 2,060d)

COMEX 6-8​

143K ozt (4.4t) in Brinks

53K ozt (1.7t) from HSBC (48K), Loomis (5K)

16K ozt (0.5t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (12K), StoneX (4K)

1K ozt (0.03t) moved from [E] to [R] in Delaware

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 28.3M ozt (15.1M [R], 13.2M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 2K/day(from 14K/day)

Total vault stock run rate = 28.3M / 2K = ~16,450 (working) days (~822 months) (from 2,0610d)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 29,467
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 2,946,700
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 170,992.29

Jun withdrawals are now ~5.8% of Jun26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 90K net deposit replaces a 30K ozt deposit in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate plummets to almost zero.

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:1.2M shares
JPM:168K ozt (5.2t)
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.092112 (from 0.092273)

Yesterday's 168K outflow is the largest since I started watching on May 21.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260609.9011/