Gold Market 260626

[pmbug]

Jun 26 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

MCX Futures $4,102.03
IBJA Spot (Holiday)
LBMA Spot $4,049.43
COMEX Jul26 Futures $4,047.10 ($2.33 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $4,040.24
SGE Spot $4,038.14 ($0.42 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened ~$3,980, closed $4,026, dipped back to ~$3,980 over night and has risen back above $4,250 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:50 : $4,049.43

Jul26 = -$2.33 vs -$3.03 Previously
Aug26 = +$14.47 vs +$16.67
Sep26 = +$30.08 (spot @ 06:14 : $4,050.62)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 contract off the board. Jul26 EFP spread holds negative. Will gold flow from the COMEX to London (LBMA)?

India ​

MCX Aug26 [GOLD 1kg] : $4,717.34 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,102.03)
IBJA PM spot : (Holiday)

China ​

SGE $4,038.14(no VAT)
SFE $4,040.24

SGE "premium" to LBMA spot = -$0.42 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $2.10


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Jun 26 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD284K
COMEX32

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~18.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 1,103d (from 1,075d)

COMEX 6-24​

ozt

32 ozt (0.001t) from MT&B

67K ozt (2.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 27.8M ozt (15M [R], 12.9M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 25K/day (from 26K/day)

Total vault stock run rate = 27.8M / 25K = ~1,103 (working) days (~55 months) (from 1,075d)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 40,834
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 4,083,400
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 753,793.93

Jun withdrawals are now ~18.5% of Jun26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 32 ozt net withdrawal replaces a 3K ozt net withdrawal in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate shrunk slightly. This afternoon we get the report for yesterday's activity and if it posts a net withdrawal, the 5 DMA rate will grow significantly as it will replace a large net deposit that will roll out of the window.

Yesterday there were 2,220 contract delivery requests posted. It's a big number for a relatively quiet month so far. We're approaching the end of the June contract. Will voltility increase?

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:2.2M shares
JPM:284K ozt (8.8t)
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.092376 (from 0.092605)

Third day in a row for shares to drop (5.3M total shares expunged) and finally there is a corresponding vault stock drain.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260625.9055/