Gold Market 260630

[pmbug]

Jun 30 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

MCX Futures $4,074.07
IBJA Spot $4,037.72 (~$0.96 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $4,036.76
COMEX Jul26 Futures $4,023.40 ($14.76 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
SFE Futures $4,036.75
SGE Spot $4,024.34 ($2.57 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened ~$4,040, closed ~$4,015, fell then recovered over night and has settled around ~$4,030 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:46 : $4,036.76

Jul26 = -$14.76 vs -$3.16 Previously (spot @ 04:34 : $4,038.16)
Aug26 = +$5.74 vs +$14.34
Sep26 = +$17.34 vs +$28.54

EFP Commentary​

Jul26 EFP spread moves firmly negative. Aug & Sep EFP spreads also contract by ~$10 each. Will gold flow from the COMEX to London (LBMA)?

India ​

MCX Aug26 [GOLD 1kg] : $4,685.18 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,074.07)
IBJA PM spot : $4,643.38 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,037.72)

China ​

SGE $4,024.34(no VAT)
SFE $4,036.75

SGE "premium" to LBMA spot = -$2.57 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $12.41


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Jun 30 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD202K
COMEX482

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~21.7% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 444d (from 431d)

COMEX 6-26​

ozt

482 ozt (0.01t) from Brinks

5K ozt (0.15t) moved from [E] to [R] in JPM

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 27.7M ozt (14.8M [R], 12.9M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 62K/day (from 64K/day)

Total vault stock run rate = 27.7M / 62K = ~444 (working) days (~22.2 months) (from 431d)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 40,841
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 4,084,100
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 886,772.75

Jun withdrawals are now ~21.7% of Jun26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 482 ozt net withdrawal replaces a 10K ozt net withdrawal in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate shrunk slightly.

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:700K shares
JPM:ozt
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.091986 (=from 0.091986)

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260628.9069/