11C1P
Yellow Jacket
So now Tsipras is now doing his best J. Bruce Ismay impression. Meanwhile the band still plays on.
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It will be interesting to see how all the people fleeing from syria/irag will effect greece and the EU in general. Finally people on the news are saying what I've been saying for weeks now that they noticed nearly 80% of those fleeing are men of fighting age and why aren't they fighting. Today they showed that they were capable of fighting when they were clashing with border guards. They of course know those countries won't decapitate them or light them on fire if they are caught/arrested so that apparently makes them much braver. At least they left all the weapons and equipment we sent them behind for isis to use.
... a report in the Greek Enikonomia, according to which Greek taxpayers would be forced to declare all cash "under the mattress" (including inside) or boxes that contain more than 15,000 euros as well as jewelry and precious stones (including gold) worth over 30,000 euros, starting in 2016 ...
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THOMSEN: Instead of waiting for them... I am not going accept a package of small measures. I am not.
VELKOULESKOU: Yeah, no, understood. We have told them, it is very clear what we have and what we have in this note that we agreed with the Europeans--which they are now backtracking--but it is very simple it is the pension reform, income tax credit, VAT and the wage bill and there are some excises, one or two... that's it. But on each of them we have significant open issues which are all political, as far as Greeks are concerned. And the other question is about the DSA [Debt Sustainability Analysis] and whether we will put it out at some point.
THOMSEN: Well, I don't know. But this is... I think about it differently. What is going to bring it all to a decision point? In the past there has been only one time when the decision has been made and then that was when they were about to run out of money seriously and to default. Right?
VELKOULESKOU: Right!
THOMSEN: And possibly this is what is going to happen again. In that case, it drags on until July, and clearly the Europeans are not going to have any discussions for a month before the Brexits and so, at some stage they will want to take a break and then they want to start again after the European referendum.
VELKOULESKOU: That's right.
THOMSEN: That is one possibility. Another possibility is one that I thought would have happened already and I am surprised that it has not happened, is that, because of the refugee situation, they take a decision... that they want to come to a conclusion. Ok? And the Germans raise the issue of the management... and basically we at that time say "Look, you Mrs. Merkel you face a question, you have to think about what is more costly: to go ahead without the IMF, would the Bundestag say 'The IMF is not on board'? or to pick the debt relief that we think that Greece needs in order to keep us on board?" Right? That is really the issue.
VELKOULESKOU: Correct!
VELKOULESKOU: When is that going to happen? I don't know, I am surprised that it has not happened yet. I would, for the sake of the Greeks and everyone else, I would like it to happen sooner rather than later.
VELKOULESKOU: I am hoping it's going to happen with these debt discussions that are starting in mid April.
THOMSEN: But that is not an event. That is not going to cause them to... That discussion can go on for a long time. And they are just leading them down the road... why are they leading them down the road? Because they are not close to the event, whatever it is.
VELKOULESKOU: I agree that we need an event, but I don't know what that will be. But I think Dijsselbloem is trying not to generate an event, but to jump start this discussion somehow on debt, that essentially is about us being on board or not at the end of the day.
THOMSEN: Yeah, but you know, that discussion of the measures and the discussion of the debt can go on forever, until some high up.. until they hit the July payment or until the leaders decide that we need to come to an agreement. But there is nothing in there that otherwise is going to force a compromise. Right? It is going to go on forever.
VELKOULESKOU: It will, yes, until July, if nothing happens beforehand. I agree.
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... A default looms in July unless the creditors give more money to Greece so that Greece can pay back the creditors. ...
The creditors demand still more austerity but Tsipras said “no”. Instead, Tsipras seeks an emergency meeting, but European Commission president Donald Tusk said “no” to that proposal.
Supposedly this standoff represents “renewed uncertainty”.
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The only thing “uncertain” is the same that that’s been uncertain since the beginning of the crisis: the timing of the credit event.
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One has to wonder what game IMF chief Christine Lagarde is playing. On one hand she demands debt relief for Greece, on the other hand she demands more “contingency measures” that she knows full well will be needed.
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Hiking taxes in a depression is one of the stupidest things one can do, but Greece is set for another vote to do just that.
Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is once again prepared to kiss German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s behind, and his party will likely go along for the ride.
The wildcard IMF has yet to chime in on the economic stupidity of this hike.
......... German officials are seeking to delay any debt restructuring until the end of the current Greek bailout program in 2018, so that Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, would pass such measures only after Germany’s 2017 elections.
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The IMF wants debt relief now, but Germany wants the IMF to hold off until Merkel wins reelection.
Meanwhile, the Greek depression resumes.
These tax hikes are insane. The key question remains: Is the IMF bluffing about debt relief or not?
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Greece and its creditors are locked in negotiations on how the nation can close its fiscal gap, in line with the requirements of the 86 billion-euro ($92 billion) aid program agreed with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF. Failure to strike a deal would hold up the release of the next portion of bailout funding.
The IMF board is set to discuss Greece’s ability to service its debt on Feb. 6. The fund has resisted pressure from countries including Germany and the Netherlands to contribute to the bailout program, seeing it as doomed unless Greece takes further steps to rein in spending or euro-area governments ease the terms of the loans.
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As in the past, the IMF is proposing that Europe extend grace periods and maturity dates on the loans. The document also calls for further deferral of interest payments and to lock in interest rates.
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Greek debt is “highly unsustainable” and “even with the full implementation of policies agreed under the European Stability Mechanism program, public debt and financing needs will become explosive in the long run,” the document says. A “substantial restructuring” of European loans to Greece is required to restore debt sustainability, it says.
The IMF agrees with Greece’s euro-area creditors on one point. Both want Greece to introduce a law triggering austerity measures if the country fails to maintain a budget surplus before interest payments of 3.5 percent of GDP. Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos last week rejected that demand as “unacceptable.”
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Bailout negotiations between Athens and its creditors have stalled. The possibility of Grexit, or euro exit, has re-emerged and bond yields have soared. The yield on two-year Greek government bonds has risen from 6% to 10% in less than two weeks as spooked investors have dumped their holdings. And the shrill rhetoric last seen at the height of the crisis in 2015 has returned.
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Ted Malloch, President Trump's proposed US ambassador to the EU, casts doubt on survival of eurozone and says Athens should return to drachma.
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Days after being accused of “outrageous malevolence” towards the EU for publicly declaring that it “needs a little taming”, The Guardian reports that Trump's nominee, Ted Malloch, said on Wednesday that the euro currency area in its present form was unlikely to last longer than 18 months.
“Whether the eurozone survives I think is very much a question that is on the agenda,” he told Greek Skai TV’s late-night chat show Istories. “We have had the exit of the UK, there are elections in other European countries, so I think it is something that will be determined over the course of the next year, year-and-a half.............
"I personally think [Trump] was right. I would also say that this probably should have been instigated four years ago, and probably it would have been easier or simpler to do,” Malloch said in the interview with the show’s chief anchor, Alexis Papahelas.
Malloch said: “I have travelled to Greece, met lots of Greek people, I have academic friends in Greece and they say that these austerity plans are really deeply hurting the Greek people, and that the situation is simply unsustainable. So you might have to ask the question if what comes next could possibly be worse than what’s happening now.”
The biggest unknown was not a euro exit, but the chaos it would likely engender as Greece moved to a new currency, he said.
“If the [IMF] will not participate in a new bailout that does not include substantial debt relief, and that’s what they are saying, then that, more or less, ensures a collision course with eurozone creditors,” Malloch added, saying it was imperative that EU member states forgave a substantial part of Greece’s mountainous public debt.
“Now we all know that primarily [puts pressure on] Germany, which remains opposed to any such actions, so I think it suggests that Greece might have to sever ties and do Grexit and exit the euro,” he said.
The game playing in Greece gets curiouser and curiouser.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble went on TV saying the only way Greece can get a haircut is if it leaves the Eurozone.
The IMF reiterated that Greece will not be able to make its payments.
Greece insists the IMF is wrong, yet it wants credit relief.
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Greece is said to be considering ditching the Euro in favour of the US dollar in a devastating move which would humiliate Brussels.
Donald Trump's pick for EU ambassador Ted Malloch claimed senior Greek economists are looking into taking on the American banknotes if the country turns its back on the European currency.
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Prof Malloch was interviewed on Greek TV, where he said Greece leaving the EU would be the best option for residents, and added the current situation is 'simply unsustainable'.
'I know some Greek economists who have even gone to leading think tanks in the US to discuss this topic and the question of dollarization,' he said, according to local press.
'Such a topic of course freaks out the Germans because they really don't want to hear such ideas.'
The likely candidate for the Brussels envoy job has previously stated he expects the Euro to crash by 2018.
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Its all Trumps fault then (-:
The state’s fiscal performance last year has exceeded even the most ambitious targets, as the primary budget surplus as defined by the Greek bailout program, came to 4.19 percent of gross domestic product, government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos announced on Friday. It came to 7.369 billion euros against a target for 879 million euros, or just 0.5 percent of GDP.
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This was also the first time since 1995 that Greece achieved a general government surplus – equal to 0.7 percent of GDP – which includes the cost of paying interest to the country’s creditors.
There is a downside to the news, however, as the figures point to overtaxation imposed last year combined with excessive containment of expenditure. The amount of 6-6.5 billion euros collected in excess of the budgeted surplus has put a chokehold on the economy, contributing to a great extent to the stagnation recorded on the GDP level in 2016.
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Greece has successfully completed a three-year eurozone emergency loan programme worth €61.9bn (£55bn; $70.8bn) to tackle its debt crisis.
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At the height of the crisis, unemployment soared to 28% but today it is 19.5%.
Those employed often have jobs for which they are overqualified, ...
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While Greece's economy has stabilised, its accumulated debt pile stands at about 180% of GDP.
Under a deal hammered out with other eurozone states in June, it must keep strict control over its public spending, running a budget surplus, before interest payments, of at least 2.2% of GDP until the year 2060.
With serious questions over its ability to manage, some analysts predict it will still be paying off its current debt after 2060.
Greece's freedom to control its own economic affairs will be tempered by enhanced surveillance from the European Union's executive, the European Commission.
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Soured loans at the country’s four systematically important banks stood at 88.6 billion euros at the end of June, equal to about half of Greece’s annual economic output. Greek bank stocks have dropped by around 97 percent since Alexis Tsipras was catapulted into office in 2015, leading to a clash with creditors.
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