Greece: Are we on like donkey-kong?

pmbug

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It may be that the US/ IMF strategy is to undermine the euro as it will be us$ positive
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Say that Greece sets some dominos in motion and eventually Spain, Portugal and Italy find themselves at the crossroads and exit which leads to a dissolving of the Euro. The supposed plans to promote SDRs as a reserve currency (with valuations based upon a basket of currencies) would have to recalculate the weighting of currencies (and gold?) in the basket (as the Euro diminishes or is replaced altogether by Marks, etc.). I don't see where it would stop the SDR (or NWO reserve currency) train from chugging along though. It would definitely delay it though.
 

pmbug

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Greece ... owes its official lenders 242.8 billion euros ($271 billion), according to a Reuters calculation based on official data, with Germany by far the largest creditor.

That figure includes loans made under two bailouts from European governments and the IMF since 2010 -- worth a nominal 220 billion euros so far, of which some has been repaid -- as well as Greek government bonds held by the European Central Bank and national central banks in the euro zone.

Private investors hold 38.7 billion euros of Greek government bonds following a major write-down and debt swap in 2012 that reduced the Greek debt stock by 107 billion euros and the value of private holdings by an estimated 75 percent.

The Greek government has also issued 15 billion euros in short-term Treasury bills, mostly to Greek banks.

Here is a breakdown of the country's foreign debt stock:

IMF - Greece was promised a total of 48.1 billion euros by the IMF, of which 16.3 billion was still to come by March 2016 if Athens successfully completed the second economic adjustment program. It had serviced and repaid loans on time up to this month, when it used an obscure IMF provision to bundle together four payments totaling 1.6 billion euros for payment by the end of June. The older IMF loans carry an interest rate of 3.5 percent, higher than the euro zone rescue fund charges.

ECB - The ECB owns roughly 18 billion euros of Greek bonds, which would probably be worth a fraction of their face value should the country leave the euro zone, with 6.7 billion euros maturing in July and August.

Beyond a default on Greece's national debt, any exit of Greece from the euro zone would lumber the European Central Bank with a huge bill for lost credit. ECB President Mario Draghi recently said that Greek banks had tapped 118 billion euros of central bank liquidity. That includes 89 billion in what is known as Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA). That remains the responsibility of the country's central bank but only if Greece stays in the euro. Were it to leave, the bill would rebound on other euro countries, including Germany.

In addition about 45 billion euros of banknotes in Greece represents another liability, being a claim that the wider Eurosystem of central banks would be obliged to honor.

THE EURO ZONE - Euro zone governments gave Greece 52.9 billion euros in bilateral loans under the first bailout agreed in 2010, known as the Greek Loan Facility. Under the second bailout agreed in 2012 Athens has so far received 141.8 billion euros from the euro zone's financial rescue fund. It had been due a further 1.8 billion euros by June 30 if it met conditions but barring major surprises that is off the table.

Of the biggest euro zone members, Germany's exposure for the two bailouts totals 57.23 billion euros, France's is 42.98 billion, Italy's is 37.76 billion and Spain's 25.1 billion. That is in addition to their contributions to the IMF loans, commensurate with their respective quotas in the global lender.

Euro zone countries have already extended the maturities of their loans to Greece from 15 to 30 years and reduced the interest rates on some to just 0.5 basis points above their borrowing cost. They also granted Greece a 10-year moratorium on interest payments on the second bailout loan from the euro zone rescue fund.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/28/us-eurozone-greece-debt-factbox-idUSKCN0P80XW20150628

Bolded figures are a bit lower than what Mish had posted a while back.
 

ancona

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I don't claim to know what the hell Tsipras is up to, nor whether or not the Greek parliament will vote for essentially every single demand originally made by the fucking troika puppet masters from Brussels, but if this is pushed through this weekend, expect Athens to burn to the ground and further expect the MP's to have to go in to hiding during the popular revolution.
 

pmbug

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Yeah, from news headlines, it really seems like the Greek leadership is schizophrenic.
 

11C1P

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The game of kick the can continues on IMO. The can just keeps getting bigger and bigger. How long will this ~55 billion last before they have to try and kick it again? Who knows, but one day the foot will break trying to kick that can.
 

pmbug

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Reading this morning a bit about the "deal" (it seems that it's more an agree to do a deal than a set thing at the moment). lol. No way this is setting Greece on a sustainable path to debt reduction. They are still toast. It just prevents a near term catastrophic economic collapse within Greece (they should have been preparing for a Grexit long ago by getting alternative payment systems in place for a new Drachma) and extends the lifespan for (most of) the current Greek political class.
 

ancona

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It doesn't change a damn thing until parliament gives it their blessing. Without this, it's just words on paper. Tsipras signed his own death warrant. The only honor here belongs to Varoufakais. [sic?]
 

ancona

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Yes, but a Grexit breaks the union. A Grexit opens the door for Spain, Italy and Portugal. Farage is right. Without a political union, which is impossible given the differences in cultural attitudes within the whole of Europe, you cannot have a union.
 

ancona

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Looks like Parliament might just listen to the peoples mandate after all. Tsipras is looking more and more like a bitch as the day wears on. It will all come down to the vote.
 

pmbug

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It's still early. Plenty of time for guns to the temples intimidation before the votes are cast.
 

ancona

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This goes one of two ways; Military coup or violent popular overthrow of sitting government. I simply cannot see the people of Greece allowing Germany and the European Union dictate to them any longer. The mandate was clear upon the vote at the referendum.
 

11C1P

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In Greece being a barber is considered a "hazardous" job, so they can retire at like 40 with crazy bennies. I don't see guys like that launching a military coup. The Greeks make U.S. libs look like Rambo.
 

rblong2us

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shows how effective free money is in buying off any revolution.
Or conversely how quickly the pitch forks come out when the trough is removed ?

Its not a great position to be in as prime minister with the entire troika trying to destroy your resolve and knowing that standing up for the greater principle will likely cause people to suffer and possibly die as law and order breaks down as soon as it becomes apparent the trough is gone.
 

ancona

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So today is the big vote. We get to find out if Greece remains a sovereign state or becomes a vassal tool of the technocrats in Brussels, forever indentured as overtaxed slaves of the bankers of the new republic.
 
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