Jim Sinclair

[pmbug]

I had posted this before in another thread:

... Jim Sinclair is also the son of Bertram Seligman whose family started Goldman Sachs, Solomon Brothers, Lehman Brothers and other major investment banking firms.

"...I know how things end in the market even before they begin. I am the son of one of the world's greatest traders, Bertram J. Seligman, who like, Jesse Livermore, always knew what was over the horizon. I do not pretend to have all the talent of those market giants but just some of it. Goldman Sachs, Solomon Brothers, Lehman Brothers, and Bache were a few of the firms started by my family. All this appears in a book called 'Our Crowd.'" (Jim Sinclair, GATA)

Our Crowd: The Great Jewish Families of New York by Stephen Birmingham relates details of the powerful New York banking alliance in which the House of Seligman—the ancestors of Jim Sinclair and his father, Bertram Seligman—became partners with the House of Rothschild and the House of Morgan:
...

http://wakeupfromyourslumber.com/bl...hschild-goldman-sachs-lehman-bros-connections

There's an interview published in Futures magazine with Mr. Sinclair that touches on his story as well as providing some insight into his thoughts:

Jim Sinclair is not simply a gold bug; he successfully has called every major move in the precious metal — both up and down — over a generation. But he is not merely a market guru either. Sinclair has had a love affair with markets for 50 years. He has owned brokerages, clearing firms, mining companies and a precious metals dealer. His Sinclair Group of Companies, founded in 1977, offered brokerage services in stocks, bonds and commodities operating in New York, Kansas City, Toronto, Chicago, London and Geneva until he sold them in 1983. At one time he was considered the largest gold trader in the world, but today he is running his African-based Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Company and the MineSet web site that provides unique macroeconomic information to his loyal followers. Sinclair is a good person to listen to.
...

More: http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/05/01/jim-sinclair-has-something-to-say

 

[Shelby-villian]

FM: What if political pressure on Bernanke prevents him from continuing QE?

JS: That is why Ron Paul can’t win. The desire to do the right thing would be absolutely the wrong thing. The explosion you would hear economically, you would hear on Mars. The right things only can be done in conditions of economic ease. You can’t have a gold convertible currency. You can’t at this point in time violently drain the system. That whole mountain of notional value will descend on us all. The idea that we are going to have a change in administration, in an extreme sense, isn’t going to happen. The other candidates that have any possibility of being able to [beat] President Obama wouldn’t make much change. The only one in there who would make great change — and it would be wonderful intellectually and horrible practically — [is Ron Paul]. We are in a box, there is one way out, there is only one tool available, quantitative easing.

Let's ease our way into a Japan style stagflation for the next 20+ years. I would consider this a success with our current direction.

 

[pmbug]

Yeah, I totally disagree with Jim that QE is the best we can hope for from a practical standpoint. Without the rule of law and respect for property rights, markets are fundamentally broken. As Kyle Bass put it:

Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without Hell.

When TBTF is institutionalized, the game is over.

 

[ancona]

Absolutely true Bug, absolutely true. All they are doing is setting the system up for a massive cascade failure of biblical proportions.

 

[pmbug]

Jim,

I have followed you since your newsletter in the 1970s. I am puzzled by your response to Bill where you talk about the dire results of stopping the fiat money printing.

Since the results of stopping are bad you are implying that continuing the fiat until ultimate failure with runaway inflation is better.

Is that what you mean to say?

Thanks for all you do for us,
CIGA Jim

Dear CIGA Jim

My job is to tell it like it is.

The economy is a drug addict. The creation of money is history making in a modern economy and money creation acts exactly like a drug. Like a drug the more you take, the more you need. The more money you create, the more money you must continue to create until it goes to infinity. You go cold turkey on money creation, you unleash the economic wrath of hell in the entire Western world. It all comes down in one great implosion.

Russia and China would act immediately economically to take full and powerful advantage of your error in application. You have to wean a drug addict off the drug in order to not kill him in recovery.

We need a new monetary system complete with a strategic plan of transitions from here and now to there. There is no politician out there that will do this no matter what is promised before the election. That will not change in November.

I was short listed in the Nixon Administration for Secretary of the US Treasury. A major article in the New York Times listed me as someone in consideration. I have a plaque from my membership on the Senatorial Economic Advisory Board. If I was in office, I would have done everything to prevent this, regardless of the cost personally

If I was made Chairman of the Federal Reserve in January 2013, I would wean the system slowly down while working to recreate the monetary system with required total gold value for government treasuries tied to a world index of total Western World M3. That is a simplification, but it would be the heart of my plan.

Jim, I know this stuff. I am not retreating from conservative principles. I just know that the mishandling of any situation due to dogmatic beliefs can set off a nuclear explosion. I would walk the Western World Financial System back to sobriety, not try to blast it back which would fail miserably.

I could do it.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/10/28/sobering-up-the-western-world-economy/

Well, that clear that up.

 

[swissaustrian]

Sometimes he sounds like a 25 yo Wall Street trader who hasn't slept for 3 days because he is constantly taking new doses of speed.
His display of self-confidence almost morphs into total arrogance. I don't like that. BUT his insight is still great.

 

[swissaustrian]

Seems like JS is purchasing stock in his company Tanzanian Royalty (TNX.TO) during metal raids. This stock is always outperforming the miners when metals are selling off...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tnx.to&ql=1

 

[swissaustrian]

Q&A Meeting In New York City With Jim Sinclair
March 5, 2013, at 3:44 pm

My Dear Extended Family,

Due to the amount of incoming questions concerning markets, it seems to me that a meeting would be appropriate. I am considering holding this afternoon meeting in New York City in two weeks.

The tentative date is now looking like Wednesday, March 20th. We will confirm the venue with you shortly.

Would you be so kind as to let me know if you care to attend? There will be no charge other than splitting the cost of the venue and refreshments.

Please email my associate Larry Roth at larryroth@lhrir.com and express your interest in attending. As soon as I know how much interest there is we will firm the date, time and venue.

Sincerely,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/03/05/qa-meeting-in-new-york-city-with-jim-sinclair/

 

[pmbug]

It would be interesting to meet Mr. Sinclair. Unfortunately, NYC isn't feasible for me.

 

[swissaustrian]

Seems like JS has been answering questions for over 4 hours in NY yesterday.

Recap of Jim Sinclair’s NYC Meeting

...

Courtesy SD reader StackerX:

I arrived at the Sutton Room in the Hilton Hotel at about 1:30pm. I figured it would be better to be 30 minutes early than a minute late and too my surprise the room was practically full. Once I entered the room I was also surprised Mr Sinclair had already started answering questions. Their were roughly 800 people at this meeting and hundreds of questions answered. I would say a quarter of the questions revolved around silver. Anyway the Q&A ran till about 5:30pm. Here are some of the notes I was able to capture while there:

1) Cyprus was a major mistake by the IMF. This was meant to shift the onus from debt monetization to the depositors. This means you should move your money out of the banking system and into something else like gold. He also said if Cypus was successful it would have caused the Dow to plummet down to as low as 1000 points because it would be a shift away from QE. QE would be second.

2) IRA timing question. Sinclair: “you have 2-3 years.” Says stop contributing. Get out. Doesn’t have to be right away. You have 2-3 years.

3) FDIC can’t meet its obligations. It could handle one or two bank failures but it cant handle a systemic crisis.

4) Mining production good to start now. 5 years ago maybe not so good.

5) Gold valuation math question: Dividing current fiat by amount of gold held = $15-17,000 gold? Sinclair: too soon to tell. Do this in 2015. This calculation may misguide you now.

6) Gold Confiscation possible? Sinclair: short answer “No” because gold has a different role today then it did back in the 1930′s. Back then they confiscated gold to increase the money supply. “Gold doesn’t function like that anymore”. Sinclair doesn’t believe their will be confiscation. Can’t comment on Taxing it instead.

7) Gold coins less likely counterfeit than Gold Bars.

8) Gold only asset to appreciate.

9) Gold will find its way back into the monetary system

10) Gold price to look for: $1517 and $2021.

11) Sinclair on Silver: Silver will rise past $50. It will rise as gold goes higher. Silver is not a monetary metal. The price of silver is based on the paper markets, because of this the supply is infinite. “The high Silver price wont be fulfilled”. “He cant agree on a really high Silver price”.

12) Why doesnt someone/ Billionaire try to corner the Silver market? Sinclair: because they will end up like the Hunt brothers.

Brings up a Jesse Livermore example where he was once pressured to take delivery. He said Livermore was a gentlemen and refused. Said other billionaires probably don’t want to go down in history as the person who crashed the Comex.

If the Hunts took delivery they may have ended up behind bars. When you break an exchange it creates a false price upwards. Problem with a Comex crash is it will go up but then crash down. He said it would be “orgasmic” lol. It is better to have a steady rise up!

13) Gold storage companies may become unethical like any other company.

14) Question about Gold Silver ratio. Sinclair: “He doesnt believe in ratios”

15) Sinclair is more of a believer of gold.

16) What about Silver? ” Silver will also do well”

17) Gold will be revalued by the market

18) Their has never been a nationalized mine that made a profit.

19) Remonetization of Silver is unlikely.

20) Yes physical Gold and Silver can run out.

21) Triple digit Silver a myth? Sinclair: Not a myth. But wont hold. $500 Silver probably wont happen.

22) Dow high because of liquidity. (floats all boats)

23) Dow could have a reaction lower sometime soon but then go higher.

24) Significant Gold targets: $248, $1650,

25) Gold was a utility in the 50′s

26) Miners are a great opportunity because they are smashed. Even with a market crash they cant go much lower.

27) QE pullback? Stopping QE creates a black hole. No limit to QE

28) The Fed only has two tools: Debt monetization and Gold revaluation.

29) Gold bull run cycle to end by year 2020-2021

30) Glass Steagall wont come back.

31) He believes Hyperinflation can occur. He believes if we have Hyperinflation it will only last 3 months. “It will be a very ugly experience”. Also said it would be short and violent.

32) Euro will outperform Dollar because they are practicing Austerity.

33) Said their is no solution to over the counter derivatives. He said a derivative is like a knot in a string that loops. He said the collapse of Lehman caused the loop to be cut.

34) 5 year window for BRICS to take over

35) He said next target for Gold was $3,100-3,200. Below $3500 is a buy. By 2015-17 Gold will be roughly $4000-4500.

36) He said if you are a Miner stock holder you must act crazy and raise hell to see profits.

37) He said the significance of March 27th date was it was his birthday. lol

38) Attack on Iran is unlikely. In the past it was possible but it doesnt look attractive today. Russian stealth Submarines may be game changer.

39) If Gold revaluation were to occur within a year it would be roughly $4,499. But could go higher after a year.

40) He was asked if he has a leg up in the industry. He said of course. Being in this business for as long as he has means he trades information with heads of industry.

41) He doesnt believe Comex will fail.

42) Question about Bitcoin? Sinclair:” it may not be practical”

http://www.silverdoctors.com/recap-...get-out-of-iras-silver-to-see-orgasmic-rally/

 

[pmbug]

Another summary of event posted here:

http://campaign.anglofareast.com/view.php?cid=909&rid=599&ds=afe_contact&x=275fe6a