Oil Market News, OPEC+, sanctions and price shocks

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Why the price of oil matters more than you might think​

The impact of the US and Israel's war in Iran is starting to hit home - no matter where you live.

As the conflict blocks oil exports from the Gulf region, and producers start to cut output, the supply shock has sent oil soaring toward $85 per barrel, rattling financial markets, driving up prices at the pump and raising fears of a bigger economic hit.

Oil supply shock​

The war has been an unwelcome reminder of the world's ongoing dependence on the Middle East for energy supplies, recalling supply shocks that hit the world in the 1950s and 1970s.

But analysts say the impact this time is much larger.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...-you-might-think/ar-AA1XRaoC?ocid=socialshare
 
gcaptain.com

Supertankers Build Up in Red Sea as Saudi Arabia Races to Bypass Hormuz

Saudi Arabia’s race to bypass the Strait of Hormuz has led to a buildup of oil supertankers waiting off the kingdom’s Red Sea coast to collect cargoes, as Riyadh tries to overcome unprecedented disruption caused by the Iran war. In the past day or so, 11 very-large crude carriers reached the...
gcaptain.com gcaptain.com
 
From 1971

Tankers and Tycoons | 60 Minutes Archive​

Mar 14, 2026
In 1971, Mike Wallace reported on the Middle East oil tanker business, noting that "the oil tanker may just be the single most remarkable money-making instrument in the world today."


15:49
 
Here's a question.

Why has not one of the talking heads (legacy media, new media, anyone else) been able to explain why diesel has become so much more expensive than unleaded petrol, despite requiring less refining to produce?
 
chieftain said:
Here's a question.

Why has not one of the talking heads (legacy media, new media, anyone else) been able to explain why diesel has become so much more expensive than unleaded petrol, despite requiring less refining to produce?
Click to expand...

Grok

Diesel has become significantly more expensive than unleaded petrol (gasoline) in many places—especially noticeable in the US right now—due to a combination of longstanding structural factors and very recent geopolitical shocks. In the US (as of early March 2026), national average prices show diesel around $4.60–$4.78 per gallon, while regular unleaded gasoline is closer to $3.45–$3.54. Diesel is rising much faster and sitting at a larger premium. Why Diesel Costs More, Despite Being "Less Refined" It's a common misconception that diesel should be cheaper because it comes from a heavier fraction of crude oil and requires less "cracking" (breaking large molecules into smaller ones) than gasoline. In basic distillation, diesel is indeed simpler to obtain in larger quantities from many crudes. However, several factors override that:
  1. Stricter environmental regulations and refining costs
    Since 2006 (US ultra-low sulfur diesel mandate), on-road diesel must be refined to very low sulfur levels (15 ppm), which requires extra hydrotreating steps, more energy, expensive catalysts, and sometimes lower-yield processes. Many refineries were historically optimized for maximum gasoline output (especially in the US), so producing cleaner diesel often incurs higher marginal costs or requires more valuable inputs.
  2. Taxes
    In the US, federal excise tax on diesel is higher (24.4 cents/gallon vs. 18.4 cents for gasoline), mainly because diesel powers heavy trucks that cause more road wear. Many states add extra differentials too. This alone creates a persistent premium.
  3. Demand and supply dynamics
    Diesel (and closely related distillates like heating oil) faces inelastic, year-round demand from freight trucking, shipping, farming, construction, railroads, and backups for power generation. Gasoline demand is more seasonal and passenger-car focused.
    A barrel of crude typically yields more gasoline than diesel naturally, but global distillate markets have been tighter in recent years due to refinery closures, shifts toward gasoline-oriented configurations, and slower growth in new diesel-capable refining capacity.
  4. Current 2026 spike (geopolitical + seasonal)
    As of March 2026, diesel prices are surging much faster than gasoline due to the ongoing war involving Iran (including US/Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation). Iran has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz (chokepoint for ~20% of global oil). Diesel/distillates react more sharply to such supply shocks because:
    • Inventories were already low after an unusually cold winter in the northeastern US, which spiked heating oil demand (heating oil is chemically almost identical to diesel).
    • Trucking/freight demand is steady and less flexible than passenger driving.
      This has amplified the gap dramatically in the short term.
In contrast, in much of Europe, diesel is often similar to or even slightly cheaper than petrol at the pump due to different tax policies (higher petrol taxes to discourage car use and encourage more efficient diesel vehicles historically). But even there, global supply disruptions can push diesel higher. Bottom Line The "less refining" intuition is outdated—modern clean diesel production is actually more expensive in key markets like the US, and demand from freight/commercial sectors keeps upward pressure on prices. The extreme gap right now (late winter 2026) is largely driven by the Iran conflict tightening an already constrained distillate market. Prices can shift quickly with geopolitics or refinery news, but diesel's structural premium over gasoline has been the norm in the US for ~20 years.
 
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