Perfect storm for pm volatility coming on April 25th (FOMC & opex)

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swissaustrian

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Next week on Wednesday (4-25), the FOMC meets ( http://www.commodityonline.com/futu...o-FOMC-meeting-for-direction-–-UBS-27989.html ) AND pm options expire (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_product_calendar_options.html ) . These events usually are the most volatile days for pms. This month they are on the same day.

Jim Rickards expects a first QE hint by the FED this month:

We already had strange trading activity in pms this week. Despite significant moves in stocks and currencies, pms basicly didn't go anywhere. This was probably the calm before the storm.
Fasten your seatbelts :wave:


For opex related pm manipulation see here:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/options-expiry-manipulation-gold-price-one-chart-229/
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/silver-options-expiry-manipulation-one-chart-290/

I'm gonna open an options volatility trade in silver on monday:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/how-trade-silver-volatility-using-options-343/
 
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Well I for one, hope it provides the dip I have been hoping for. I have dry powder, and I need to convert it from it's natural debt-backed form into a tangible PM form.
 
PMs on sale so far this morning...
 
I see those prices following the rise in dollar strength very closely, and while Europe is open. I would buy some now, but I'd rather wait and see what happens Wednesday.
 
Gold is doing ok so far. Arround 9am et buyers stepped in below 1630. Now it's trading like a derivative of eur/usd.
Silver got slaughhered during the first your of comex trading. But it is still above 30, so there's nothing to be concerned about. My volatility trade is doing time
 
It really looks like "someone" needs the metals to stay within a particular range until after Europe's election season. As for the US election, I further suspect we will see some wierd action right up until November.
 
I don't think we want the scenario where gold drops honestly. We need this game to keep going to keep stacking. IMO.. A drop (ie to 1400) would force the hand of governments too early. I want to be more prepared and having the duration of the trade drawn out will only help me in my preparations.
 
Watch the comex opening in 26 minutes. It's the day before opex. This usually a big move right at the opening bell
 
This is a really light month for options. We are pretty much in no man's land for options so I don't think too many shenanigans are going to happen this month. At least, I don't think the volatility will be the result of opex. It should be 100% based on the fed.
 
Silver trading at 31.000 is clearly opex related. Now we know the reason why it fell so mich yesterday.
I expect gold to close at arround 1650.
Platinum is also trading at a round number : 1550. So is palladium: 675.
 
The miners are doing much better than the metals today. Usually they plunge before a raid, so that's looking unlikely so far...
 
swissaustrian said:
The miners are doing much better than the metals today. Usually they plunge before a raid, so that's looking unlikely so far...
Click to expand...

gold is getting raided right now.

The shares are largely ignoring it simply because they are so washed out already. The general market being up isn't hurting either.

I really do think this is starting to look like a setup very similar to spring of 05. The correction in gold and the stocks is just eerily similar to the one we had in 04-05. In that period, the shares went through a correction of similar duration and magnitude and strangely enough, so did gold and silver. In addition, sentiment was buried in a very similar fashion to how it currently is.
 
swissaustrian said:
Silver trading at 31.000 is clearly opex related. Now we know the reason why it fell so mich yesterday.
I expect gold to close at arround 1650.
Platinum is also trading at a round number : 1550. So is palladium: 675.
Click to expand...

Silver at 31 isn't 'rounded enough'. They want 30 at least.
 
Silver got hammered around 10 this morning; always fun to see a 50 cent drop in a matter of minutes!
 
The activity in silver is clearly opex driven. None of the other metals had a correlated move when the raid occured.
 
It looks like Silver is following with Gold and dropping for a second time today. Amazing to see a sub $30 silver price! I may need to dip into reserve funds for an extra big may purchase.
 
I think this sale has legs through the rest of the day. I'm not trying to time a buy here, but I am planning on buying later tonight or maybe risk and see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully not a retracing of today's moves back up if I decide to wait...
 
I'm closing my silver shorts from monday here. Might be too early but I made a decent profit, so I'm out.
 
I think it's fair to say by now that this raid isn't going to be as bad as last time ($100 for gold, $3 for silver). Maybe uncle Ben's press conference is even going to lift the metals up a bit at 2:15 pm...
 
The shares are putting in a positive divergence thus far... It's still early though.
 
swissaustrian said:
I think it's fair to say by now that this raid isn't going to be as bad as last time ($100 for gold, $3 for silver). Maybe uncle Ben's press conference is even going to lift the metals up a bit at 2:15 pm...
Click to expand...

I don't understand why anyone would sell metals ahead of a Fed announcement? Perhaps manipulation to pull the prices down with paper and buy physical at the lower price ahead of a price spike?
 
swissaustrian said:
:flail: Man I'm glad I closed my silver shorts.
Bought some SLW, too.
Click to expand...

I like sinclair's description of this kind of action.. Shorts in general didn't ge the down move they wanted.. They either cover or get raped.

 
lots of volatility .. The dollar is moving 10 bips per tick it seems.
 
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