Physical gold and silver inventory watch 2013

pmbug

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We noted here that the plunge in the paper price of gold (and silver) had prompted considerable renewed demand for physical and now it seems the scramble among the "more stable investor base" is increasing. The shake out of ETFs and futures has left the Australian mint short of deliverables and Japanese and Chinese gold retailers seeing a "frenzied" surge in demand. The customers are not just the 'rich' or 'elderly'; in China "they tend to wear water shoes and come directly from the market...;" in Australia, "the volume of business... is way in excess of double what we did last week,... there’s been people running through the gate," and Japanese individual investors doubled gold purchases yesterday at Tokuriki Honten, the country’s second-largest retailer of the precious metal. The panic selling by a weaker 'imminent inflation-based' investor base has sparked physical shortages - "there’s been significant sales made as people see this as great value." ...
More: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...s-china-japan-and-australia-scramble-physical
 

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Another 12 hour / evening update...

The following report details changes from 4/17 @ ~8am to 4/17 @ ~8pm:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 49 to 71 [35 in stock]. Perth (+28), Pamp (-6)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 4647 to 4328 [1261 in stock]. Pamp (-358), Pamp YoTD (+78), Credit Suisse (-267), Perth (+300), Heraeus (-4), Argor-Heraeus (-21), RCM (-47)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 181 to 182 [84 in stock]. RCM (+74), JM "new" (-83), generic secondary market (+7), Englehard "struck" (+1), Englehard "bull logo" (+2)
Apmex lists the new Perth gold bars (both 10ozt and 1ozt) as in stock. They also list the new RCM 100ozt silver bars as in stock.
 

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Another 12 hour / morning update...

The following report details changes from 4/17 @ ~8pm to 4/18 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 71 to 47 [14 in stock]. Perth (-21), Pamp (-3)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 4328 to 4089 [1228 in stock]. Pamp (-69), Pamp YoTD (-6), Credit Suisse (-128), Perth (-22), Argor-Heraeus (-3), RCM (-9)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 182 to 133 [10 in stock]. RCM (-41), JM "new" (-8), generic secondary market (+3), Englehard "struck" (-1 sold out), Englehard "bull logo" (-2 sold out)
Strong sales volume again for an overnight period. Apmex now lists the RCM 100ozt silver bars as future availability (ie. not in stock). It appears that the only significant stock of gold bars that Apmex has currently is Perth Mint gold.
 

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Another update from bullionbypost (UK biggest online bullion supplier)

They've gone from next day delivery to unprecedented 3 days then to 1 week and then they said because of unprecedented physical demand they're setting a minimum order amount of £500 as well, (+-$750), now the guys who up till last week could always offer next day delivery, are now extended the delivery time even further...

Record Orders!

Due to record orders we have had to set a temporary minimum order of £500. We are also unable to offer usual next day delivery. Orders will be dispatched ASAP in the order that funds are received. We expect to dispatch most orders within 2 weeks.
 

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The following report details changes from 4/18 @ ~8am to 4/19 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 47 to 21 [4 in stock]. Perth (-10), Pamp (-16)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 4089 to 3291 [1021 in stock]. Pamp (-309), Pamp YoTD (-14), Credit Suisse (-248), Perth (-193), Heraues (-5), Argor-Heraeus (-5), RCM (-34)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 133 to 0. RCM (-33 sold out), JM "new" (-90 sold out), generic secondary market (-10 sold out)
Strong sales volume continues for all categories. Premiums for gold bars still has not changed.

This is the first time ever (that I've seen) that Apmex is completely wiped out of 100 ozt silver.

 

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Chinese Gold Exchange Sold Out - Begins Importing From Switzerland

Now we discover that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has essentially sold out of gold bullion, and must wait until Wednesday for shipments to arrive from Switzerland and London.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/chinese-gold-exchange-sold-out-begins-importing-switzerland


Edit: I'm not sure if this is an unusual occurrence, 'Sold Out' might be a bit extreme but that is the title of the ZH piece.
 
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...
Aram Shishmanian, CEO, World Gold Council: "It has become increasingly clear over the course of the past week that the fall in the gold price was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets. Their short-term view of generating a trading profit is in stark contrast to the views of long term investors in gold, as evidenced by the massive wave of physical gold buying that began over the weekend and accelerated following Monday's further decline.

The surge in gold purchases is spanning markets from India and China to the US, Japan and Europe. Buyers are viewing this as an opportunity to purchase gold at prices not seen in the past couple of years."

The World Gold Council is uniquely positioned in the gold market to get immediate feedback on market patterns. "We are already seeing shortages for bars and coins in Dubai, ...
More: http://m.economictimes.com/markets/...s-world-gold-council/articleshow/19630348.cms
 

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I'm not sure what the Brotherhood of Darkness thought was going to happen with this enormous artificial smack-down. Naturally, everyone of us gold/silver bugs ran right out and bought up all the discount metals we could get our greedy little hands on.
 

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The following report details changes from 4/19 @ ~8am to 4/20 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 21 to 110 [96 in stock]. Perth (+43), Pamp (-3), Credit Suisse (+49)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 3291 to 2780 [1026 in stock]. Pamp (-181), Pamp YoTD (-26), Credit Suisse (-298), Perth (+51), Heraeus (-2 sold out), Argor-Heraeus (-18 sold out), RCM (-37)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 0 to 34. generic secondary market (+33), Englehard "bull logo" (+1)
Apmex again reloaded both gold bar categories with Perth Mint products. They appear to also have gotten some 10 ozt Credit Suisse bars and secondary market 100 ozt silver bars.

I finally saw the premiums for the gold bars rise - something I had been expecting all week. They raised the premiums on the 10 ozt and 1 ozt gold bars by $15/ozt (a roughly 50% premium increase across the board). They also more than doubled the premiums on the 100 ozt silver bars for the generic secondary market from $.89/$.99 per ozt to $1.89/$1.99 per ozt.
 

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The following report details changes from 4/20 @ ~8am to 4/21 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 110 to 106 [95 in stock]. Pamp (-3), Credit Suisse (-1)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 2780 to 2651 [971 in stock]. Pamp (-32), Pamp YoTD (-7), Credit Suisse (-38), Perth (-48), RCM (-4)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 34 to 27. generic secondary market (-7)
Sales volume returned a bit closer to Earth on a Saturday (weekend). Maybe the raised premiums drove business to other dealers?
 

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The following report details changes from 4/21 @ ~9am to 4/22 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 106 to 99 [88 in stock]. Credit Suisse (-7)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 2651 to 2562 [990 in stock]. Pamp (-70), Pamp YoTD (-12), Credit Suisse (-35), Perth (-64), Scotiabank (+95), RCM (-3)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 27 to 0. generic secondary market (-26 sold out), Englehard bull logo (-1 sold out)
Apmex lowered the premium on the 1ozt gold that they have in stock (not listed as future availability) to $39.99/$49.99. The premium is higher for the 1 ozt gold bars they don't have in stock.

While they managed to get more 1 ozt gold (Scotiabank), they apparently aren't having as much luck sourcing 100 ozt silver. Their inventory is once again wiped out.
 

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Great article from Texas Metals on ZH

So to avoid further speculation, and focusing on fact, here is what the CEO of Texas Precious Metals has to say about the state of the actual physical market, not the one where one can create "gold" and "silver" out of thin air. The bottom line? "The physical silver market is, in a word, ugly" and more importantly, "Last week, we turned away business in excess of 100,000 ozs of silver because of stock depletion.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...-market-and-inventory-update-source-word-ugly

As you all know, it has been a remarkable (and historic) week in the metals market, with metals prices falling precipitously. In the past two weeks, we have sold over 350,000 ozs of silver and 11,000 ozs of gold, which (as you can tell from our website) has placed an enormous strain on inventory levels, not to mention our loyal staff. As of today, we are completely sold out of silver
I want to extend a tremendous debt of gratitude to our vault and shipping staff, who continue to pull 18-hour days (working through the weekends) to meet our commitments to customers
 
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The futures curve is not (yet) in backwardation. That would be the ultimate confirmation of shortages.
 

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The following report details changes from 4/22 @ ~8am to 4/23 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 99 to 153 [79 in stock]. Perth (-7), Pamp (+63), Credit Suisse (-2)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 2562 to 2255 [842 in stock]. Pamp (-54), Pamp YoTD (-17), Credit Suisse (-92), Perth (-129), Scotiabank (-2), RCM (-13)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 0 to 45. Apmex (+45)
Strong sales volume continues. Apmex showing inventory for their own brand 100 ozt silver bars in stock (with a hefty $1.89/1.99 per ozt premium).
 

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The following report details changes from 4/23 @ ~8am to 4/24 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 153 to 148 [75 in stock]. Perth (-5), Pamp (-1), Englehard "loaf" (+1)
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 2255 to 2275 [783 in stock]. Pamp (-50), Pamp YoTD (-23), Credit Suisse (+234), Perth (-66), Scotiabank (-9), generic no assay (+39), RCM (-5)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 45 to 5. Apmex (-45 sold out), Englehard secondary market (+5)
Sales volume for gold, while still strong, appears to be weaking a bit. Apmex is still having trouble maintaining any inventory of 100 ozt silver though. The premium on the Englehard secondary market bars jumped from $1.39/1.49 to $2.39/2.49 per ozt.

Looks like Tulving has some 90% in stock again (and selling at ~$5 premium!). They are also now listing some silver products (JM 1ozt, Rand 1ozt and Libertads) as future availability.
 

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Perth Mint has announced to distributors today that the following coins will be prioritised for manufacture:
2013 Australian Kookaburra 1oz silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Koala 1 kilo silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Kookaburra 1 kilo silver bullion coin
The following coins have been temporarily suspended from wholesale order, and may be in short supply for the time being:
2013 Australian Lunar 1 kilo Year of the Snake silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Lunar 10oz Year of the Snake silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Lunar 5oz Year of the Snake silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Lunar 2oz Year of the Snake silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Lunar 1/2oz Year of the Snake silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Kookaburra 10oz silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Koala 10oz silver bullion coin
2013 Australian Koala 1/2oz silver bullion coin
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-39554-news-perth-mint-coin-availability.html
 
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