Real Estate Recovery Is Only a Mirage

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Unobtanium

Big Eyed Bug
Messages
461
Reaction score
19
Points
143
I have also long thought that we still have a way to go before the US housing market bottoms, despite some pockets of localized recovery.

Additionally, despite the mid 2000's US housing bubble, there are housing bubbles in many other countries waiting to pop:
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/housing-bubble/

 
I think that we have hit the bottom, but it is going to be a very...very long time to start "recovering" from it. There are a lot of factors that go into home prices/sales/building/etc. and all of them need to have some sort of recovery before the housing market really picks up. A lot of it will depend on where you live. My area of the country did not get hit as hard as others, but if you are smart and have the assets, now is the time to make a move when it comes to real estate.
 
My area of the country did not get hit as hard as others, but if you are smart and have the assets, now is the time to make a move when it comes to real estate.

Every part of the country will have their 08 moment. It's starting to happen in Texas (due to natural gas falling) so don't plan on buying a new home for a few more years.
 
Every part of the country will have their 08 moment. It's starting to happen in Texas (due to natural gas falling) so don't plan on buying a new home for a few more years.

It is all relative. The better things are when times are good, the harder they will crash if things go bad. Some people saw the value of their home fall 50-70%+. Others saw only a small fraction of that. If prices never got artificially inflated, then they can burst as big. I am not necessarily talking about Texas, but the midwest in general.
 
Everyone I have talked to over the past couple of years or so tells me that nothing has really gotten any better for them. No green shoots. That includes most forms of real estate.

But, mine are only anecdotes from people I know. YMMV!
 
There is still a huge backlog of foreclosed homes (so called shadow inventory) that have not hit the market yet:

http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/oh-shitsky-mortgage-dam-about-burst-766/

We have been hearing about this shadow inventory a couple times a year, threatening to be released. There are reports that a tidal wave of foreclosures are about to be released, and then you hear nothing about it for a while. I have not kept up close enough to know what percentage of this has actually hit the market yet.

Everyone I have talked to over the past couple of years or so tells me that nothing has really gotten any better for them. No green shoots. That includes most forms of real estate.

But, mine are only anecdotes from people I know. YMMV!

My area actually lagged a bit from the national bust, and is now seeing some significant price reductions in homes, especially larger homes.
 
3.7% 30 Year Rate & still in the tank.
No JOBS!!! Doesn't matter if 0%,noJOBS or the fear of losing one's job the housing mkt will continue to tank.
JMHO

GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS!!!
 
@ BigJim. Yes.

No jobs, that explains it.

I am reading a brand new book called The Coming Jobs War, by Jim Clifton, the head of Gallup, the polling company. The book is far more interesting than the title might lead you to believe. There ARE ways that cities can create good jobs, most are doing it wrong...

Gallup did a HUGE STUDY and asked people all over the world what their single biggest issue was. The plurality was getting a good job. Every country responded that way.
 
@BigJim, DoChen,

And Taxmageddon muddies the jobs/real estate waters even more:

 

Mach, you and Mish are in agreement:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/three-key-reasons-housing-not-coming.html

 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…