Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[nickndfl]

Same microcosm is happening to platinum now and is a much smaller market. The other thing about silver is it is not as popular overseas because of higher taxes than gold. If the Europeans removed VAT (20%) and/or sales tax on silver it would be a great place to store wealth, but the overall premium keeps many away other than collectors.

 

[Voodoo]

Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 21 metric tons
SFE silver vault - adds 20.1 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 75 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 27.3 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Does it seem like silver is in a structural deficit (global demand > global production) to you? Will it make any sense at all if the LBMA reports (on July 8) that they added silver to their vaults in the month of June?

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics. I suspect these are are Damned Lies, but you can take your pick.

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 34.6 metric tons
SFE silver vault - adds 65.4 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 115.9 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 40.6 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
PSLV silver vault - added 90.3 metric tons over the month of June (from June 3 to July 1)
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Global silver vaults (excepting LBMA dinosaurs) report increasing their stocks by 899.1 metric tons over the month of June. Does it seem like silver is in a structural deficit (global demand > global production) to you?

LBMA monthly report for June is due on July 8. Will they also claim an increase to their free float (ie. an increase more than the ETF stock in their system)? If they do, where did all these good delivery bars come from?

 

[Voodoo]

We live in an Infinite Hype loop market reality.

 

[pmbug]

Update (see post #151 for last month):

• LBMA - As at end June 2025, ... There were also 23,791 tonnes of silver (a 1.8% increase on previous month)... ETF report for 7 July claims ~616 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~148.8 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~163 mtoz reported at the end of May.
• COMEX - As of July 1, 499.695 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 396.525 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~392.225 mtoz reported at the end of May.
• SFE/SGE - As of July 2 (SFE) and June 27 (SGE), 2,661,884 kg or ~85.6 mtoz. This compares to ~79.27 mtoz reported at the end of May.

The west has roughly 545.325 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global free float including China is ~630.925 mtoz ( 3.57 mtoz less than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up 424 tonnes (~13.6 mtoz) from end of May. ETFs gained ~27.8 mtoz (~864.7 tonnes).

The COMEX is up ~4.3 mtoz from end of May. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

I started tracking the global vault stock changes every week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The weekly changes throughout June were showing all four major vaulting systems were increasing their holdings of physical silver throughout the month. Given silver's magical metal mystery in previous months, I was half expecting the LBMA to claim an increase in free float silver in June as well in spite of the supposed structural deficit (demand > production), but that did not happen. LBMA free float is reported to have shrunk ~14.2 mtoz (~441.7 tonnes), slightly exceeding the net increases to the COMEX and SGE/SFE for the month.

As a reminder, per the latest COT report, as of June 24, there were 152,545 short contracts on the COMEX representing the sale of 762,725,000 troy ounces (23,723.4 metric tons) of silver. COMEX has sold ~131.8 mtoz (~4099 tonnes) more paper silver than currently exists as free float in global vaults.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://harveyorganblog.com/2025/07...adium-showing-no-gain-remaining-at-1099-60-g/
SGE/SFE:

LBMA ETFs:

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 3.3 metric tons
SFE silver vault - adds 44.1 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 2.6 metric tons
PSLV silver vault - no change
COMEX silver stock - loses 43.2 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Last week it looks like global silver flows tightened up considerably. Net change (less whatever happened in LBMA vaults) was almost zero! Is silver flowing from COMEX to China (SFE)?

 

[Voodoo]

They've had a price premium of what at least 5% for months on end. Should that not be Exactly what happens?

 

[pmbug]

His number is a bit higher than HUGO's number, but HUGO showed his work, so I'm going with HUGO.

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - adds 7.3 metric tons
SFE silver vault - loses 36.2 metric tons
SLV London vault - loses 110.2 metric tons (huge losses on Thu & Fri)
PSLV silver vault - no change
COMEX silver stock - loses 52.3 metric tons (lost a lot Mon-Thu and recovered some Fri)
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
July 7-11 = -191.4 metric tons
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Last week was the first global net outflow in many weeks - probably since February given the magic mystery in the monthly numbers since March, but I have only been paying close attention to these weekly numbers since the start of June.

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 15.2 metric tons
SFE silver vault - loses 92.5 metric tons
SLV London vault - loses 49.4 metric tons (they regained it + the previous week's loss all back on Monday this week)
PSLV silver vault - adds 80.9 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 31.8 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
July 14-18 = -44.4 metric tons
July 7-11 = -191.4 metric tons
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

The bulk of last week's inventory stock gain was in PSLV which is actually a loss for global free float as that metal isn't available for settling deliveries on the COMEX or LBMA OTC markets. I think PSLV still needs to acquire ~9 metric tons to back new units added recently.

COMEX inventory seems to be stable over the last 4 weeks within a narrow band, SFE/SGE is losing metal in spite of premium prices that should encourage an arbitrage trade/flow. COMEX silver July contract currently has 9,198 contracts (1430.4 metric tons) standing for delivery. That represents ~10% of it's current inventory (~25% of the registered category). Those deliveries should begin in a week or two?

SLV's loss - the second week in a row - would presumably be a net gain for global free float, but Monday this week saw a massive inflow negating this week's and last week's loss. All of SLV's inventory fluctuations occur in JPM's London vaults (in the LBMA system). One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide any reporting/transparency of their operations like every other market in the world.