Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

Monday morning 1-5 in silver. Silver spot jumped to ~$76 Sunday night as China wakes up for trading in the New Year. 2026 begins in earnest ...

China​

SGE silver holds above $81. It looks like China is dictating the price now.

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $76.16, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.16 vs -$2.29 Saturday
Feb26 = -$0.81 vs -$2.06
Mar26 = -$0.43 vs -$1.83

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads have narrowed greatly overnight as China trading re-opens. Will the EFP spreads be sufficient to encourage COMEX silver to flow to London now?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $85.25/ozt
Mar26 is at $84.52/ozt
$0.73/ozt backwardation vs $0.94/ozt Saturday

Backwardation narrowed, but still in the $0.70-$1.00 range. Seems like both China and India are hungry for silver.

LBMA​

Silver stock report due Jan 8 and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:
(previous post)

Big Picture​

- Negative EFP spread narrowing, waiting to see if COMEX is sending silver to London
- SGE/SFE at >$81 silver, maintains big premium to LBMA spot
- Indian futures backwardation >$.0.70
- LBMA free float likely ~3,554 metric tons (114M ozt) or just ~4M ozt liquid

ICYMI:​

 

[searcher]

 

[SilverStacker]

It befuddles me how the COMEX gets away with trading paper contracts for so much less then Asian markets deliver actual metal. It strike me as a conflicting reality that must somehow break like a rubber band and it will be the physical, those that hold it in hand, will win.

 

[Voodoo]

It appears to me that BOTH London and New York are just running paper trading games. So that's why I don't really like to call that Backwardation and I don't think it really represents any physical movements.

The physical premium and market is now China. And they've been putting a premium on it for a long time now.

 

[pmbug]

Yesterday (1-5) in silver

Yesterday silver spot broke though $76 during the day and $78 overnight. Below the surface, stress is percolating (again) ...

COMEX 1-2 activity​

598K ozt (18.6 tonnes) deposited in CNT (registered)

850K ozt (26.4 tonnes) withdrawn from JPM (650K) and MT&B (200K)

1.1M ozt (35.9 tonnes) moved from registered to eligible in the Asahi (570K), Brinks (334K), StoneX (147K) et al vaults

COMEX Commentary​

Finally we see the stirrings of withdrawal activity that I have been expecting for the last week or so. Is the COMEX going to rescue the LBMA again?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $78.17, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.44 vs -$1.16 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.22 vs -$0.81
Mar26 = +$0.12 vs -$0.43

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads have narrowed greatly again just as the COMEX was showing some signs of sending silver to London. Mar26 actually went positive. Poor LBMA. Will CME hike margins again to goose negative EFP spreads?

China​

China is driving the bus

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $86.86/ozt
Mar26 is at $86.26/ozt
$0.60/ozt backwardation vs $0.73/ozt yesterday

Backwardation narrowed under the $0.70-$1.00 range it had been for the last few trading days. Trend or anomaly?

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee steady at 0.70%

Looks like minimal share lending happening yesterday and plenty of shares are still available to plunder.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 3M shares shed
JPM: 2.7M ozt (84.6 tonnes) shed

SLV drain/raid is still happening. If you own SLV, talk to your broker about protecting your shares from being lent out.

PSLV​

4.1M units added
291K ozt (9 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3409. They need to add ~1.5M ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease rates​

Spiked to 8.85% before dropping to 7.3% - still elevated above the norm

LBMA​

Silver stock report due Jan 8 and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads narrowing; will COMEX deliver to London?
- SGE/SFE at >$87 - big premium to LBMA spot
- Indian futures backwardation persists
- SLV vault draining
- PSLV needing 1.5M ozt
- LBMA free float likely very thin

ICYMI:​

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 44.9
SFE silver vault - 127.8
SLV London vault - 59.2
PSLV silver vault - 59.1
COMEX silver stock - 12.2
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Dec 29-Jan 2 = 160.6
Dec 22-26 = 317.8
Dec 15-19 = 149.9
Dec 8-12 = 338.7
Dec 1-5 = 488.8
...

Last week appears to be a mixed bag. China vaults (SGE/SFE) had big drains, COMEX kept a lid on withdrawals (slight overall gain) and SLV shed vault stock. PSLV continues taking LGD silver off the table.

COMEX vault saw net inflows on Tue and Wed last week and net outflows Mon and Fri. EFP spreads were widely negative and I would have expected more withdrawals/drains, but we didn't see it.

SLV had a 6.3M ozt drain on Mon and a 4.8M gain on Tue. Schitzo! I think the LBMA is starting to experience stress again.

PSLV seems to be picking up the pace with adding silver to their vault stock even though they are behind the curve in keeping pace with new unit issuance. Are they having trouble sourcing the LGD silver bars?

Last week the SFE & SGE reported large outflows while maintaining a large premium to LBMA spot. Either China's domestic demand for physical silver has gone off the rails, or the LBMA is not delivering (can not deliver???) silver to China.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

 

[pmbug]

Yesterday (1-6) in silver

Yesterday silver spot broke though $81 during the day and slammed back below $80 overnight. Below the surface, SLV is squawking ...

COMEX 1-5 activity​

1.6M ozt (49.6 tonnes) deposited in Asahi (531K registered), CNT (828K registered, 236K eligible)

1.9M ozt (59.3 tonnes) withdrawn from Brinks (480K), CNT (137K) and JPM (1.3M)

880K ozt (27.4 tonnes) moved from registered to eligible in the Asahi (278K), Brinks (171K), CNT (246K) and JPM (179K) et al vaults

COMEX Commentary​

Monday was a busy day at the COMEX! Nearly 2M withdrawn and nearly another 1M moved to eligible (ready to be withdrawn soon). Is the COMEX going to rescue the LBMA again or is the negative EFP spread going to turn positive and close that door?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $79.16, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.37 vs -$0.44 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.24 vs -$0.22
Mar26 = +$0.04 vs +$0.12

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads appear to have settled this morning - more or less where they were yesterday morning. Mar26 is still positive. Will we see actors taking Jan26 contracts for delivery (real, actual physical delivery) to ship to London?

China​

@oriental_ghost hasn't published the Jan 7 report as of this moment, but HUGO says China closed at +8.5% or +$6.81 per ounce above LBMA spot. That would put SGE silver price at around $86 to $87 I think.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $88.42/ozt
Mar26 is at $87.63/ozt
$0.79/ozt backwardation vs $0.60/ozt yesterday

Backwardation back above $0.70 (into the range it had been for the last few trading days previous to yesterday). Demand for immediate delivery physical silver is still strong in India.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee still 0.70%

IBKR did not report *any* activity yesterday. I have never seen that before. Is it a breakdown in the reporting, or a true reflection of market activity? Seems like the former to me as ...

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 8.35M shares shed
JPM: 5M ozt (156.8 tonnes) shed

SLV drain/raid accelerating even while spot price was going up (SLV usually adds shares/ozt when spot rises). How is this possible with no (reported) share borrowing activity?

PSLV​

2.7M units added
600K ozt (18.7 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3404. They need to add ~1.9M ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease rates​

Last report I saw on lease rates was two days ago. I've asked @BruceIkeGold for an update given the volatility we are seeing in the silver market presently. Hopefully he will oblige.

LBMA​

Silver stock report due tomorrow and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads steady near zero; will COMEX deliver to London?
- SGE/SFE at ~$87 - big premium to LBMA spot
- Indian futures backwardation persists
- SLV vault drain accelerating
- PSLV needing 1.8M ozt
- LBMA free float likely very thin

ICYMI:​

 

[pmbug]

"Another thing to notice is that once again there is a mismatch between Blackrock’s info page (518.2 Mill oz) and the underlying bar list (520.9 mill oz)."

"Normally when there is a mismatch, it is because JPM was slow to update their bar report. But JPM did update their bar report yesterday, so this is curious indeed!"

 

[pmbug]

Yesterday (1-7) in silver

Yesterday silver spot dipped below and the held at $78 and then fell below $76 overnight. Below the surface, SLV is squealing ...

COMEX 1-6 activity​

5K ozt (5 LGD bars) deposited in CNT

2.3M ozt (70.9 tons) withdrawn from Brinks (80K), HSBC (300K), JPM (1.3M), Loomis (607K)

5K ozt moved from [R] to [E] in JPM vault

1.2M ozt (37.3 tons) "adjusted" out of Brinks [E]

COMEX Commentary​

COMEX drain continued in earnest on Tuesday. I assume the Brinks "adjustment" was more withdrawn and headed to London with the rest. Curiously, very little moved from registered [R] to eligible [E] on Tuesday. Is the drain about to end?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $75.21, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.28 vs -$0.37 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.61 vs -$0.24
Mar26 = -$0.26 vs +$0.04

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads are widening negative again this morning as the "rebalancing" (index funds futures selling) begins. How much silver ocean will the COMEX drain (to the LBMA's gain) over the next few days? My guess is - a lot. The Jan26 contract is getting hammered.

China​

At 2.7M ozt (84.2 tons), the SFE silver vault reports the largest one day inflow since I started watching it daily back in June 2025. The largest I've seen before today was 1.5M ozt.

SGE silver holding the line at $81.74. Will the ~$6 premium to LBMA spot widen as the "rebalancing" begins today?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $83.44/ozt
Mar26 is at $82.50/ozt
$0.94/ozt backwardation vs $0.79/ozt yesterday

Backwardation growing. Demand for immediate delivery physical silver is still strong in India.

SLV Share Lending​

IBKR did not report *any* activity yesterday (again). Looks like Interactive Brokers is itself broken.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 650K shares shed
JPM: 3.3M ozt (102.9 tonnes) shed

SLV drain continues, but Blackrock share shedding slowed, so maybe over? JPM catches up to Blackrock (bar report now matches iShares page). The LBMA gets a reprieve for now.

PSLV​

No change to units
998K ozt (31 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3420. They need to add ~859K ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease rates​

I expect given the COMEX and SLV drains that thelease rates will likely ease a bit as the LBMA survives with a tiny oasis of liquid free float. However, the last report I saw on lease rates was three days ago. I've asked @BruceIkeGold for an update given the volatility we are seeing in the silver market presently. Hopefully he will oblige.

LBMA​

Silver stock report due today and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:

Big Picture​

- Jan26 neg EFP spread + delivery requests
- COMEX draining
- China/SGE ~$6 premium to LBMA
- Indian futures backwardation growing
- SLV vault drain
- PSLV adding stock, still needs 859K ozt
- LBMA free float "ocean" surviving on COMEX/SLV garden hose

ICYMI:​

 

[pmbug]

Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #322 for last month):

Global Vault Stock (in tons) - December 2025​

Market​	This month​	Last month​	Difference​
LBMA (total)	27,818​	27,187​	631​
London vaulted ETFs	22,385​	21,317​	1,068​
LBMA-ETFs (free float)	5,433​	5,870​	-437​
COMEX	13,989.52​	14,183.02​	-193.50​
SLV NYC Vault	3,022.36​	3,115.67​	-93.31​
COMEX-SLV (free float)	10,967.16​	11,067.35​	-100.19​
SFE/SGE	1,465.263​	1,246.077​	219.186​
PSLV	6,553.692​	6,363.932​	189.760​

The West has roughly 16,400 metric tons vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs if you believe the LBMA number (I don't). That's a decrease of 537 metric tons over last month's report which might seem reasonable except for the India issue ...

The LBMA likely overstated November's vault stock number by at least 1,321 metric tons given Indian import data.


My realistic upper bound estimate for LBMA silver vault stock is 25,939 metric tons. Given known data, the LBMA vault stock appears to be overstated by at least ~1,879 metric tons.


Accepting the LBMA numbers as real, the total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is 17,865 metric tons (a decrease of ~318 tonnes). That's a ~1.7% drop in one month (and likely much higher if I'm right about the LBMA overstating their vault stock).

As China is now implementing export restrictions on silver, SGE/SFE vault stock is no longer a reliable supply for Western markets. Using my realistic upper bound LBMA estimate, the TGFF excluding China (SFE/SGE) is just 14,521 metric tons.

A while back, I estimated that ~$36B was enough to wipe out total global free float. The price of silver has risen a bit since then (I used $60/ozt back then), but the TGFF has shrunk, so the net value (using my LBMA estimate) is about the same:

14,521 metric tons = 466,861,000 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.3B

PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement. PSLV got busy again in December adding nearly 3% more vault stock over the month.

I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:

These figures provide an important insight into London's ability to underpin the physical OTC market.

I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:

COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.