Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

Monday morning 1-5 in silver. Silver spot jumped to ~$76 Sunday night as China wakes up for trading in the New Year. 2026 begins in earnest ...

China​

SGE silver holds above $81. It looks like China is dictating the price now.

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $76.16, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.16 vs -$2.29 Saturday
Feb26 = -$0.81 vs -$2.06
Mar26 = -$0.43 vs -$1.83

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads have narrowed greatly overnight as China trading re-opens. Will the EFP spreads be sufficient to encourage COMEX silver to flow to London now?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $85.25/ozt
Mar26 is at $84.52/ozt
$0.73/ozt backwardation vs $0.94/ozt Saturday

Backwardation narrowed, but still in the $0.70-$1.00 range. Seems like both China and India are hungry for silver.

LBMA​

Silver stock report due Jan 8 and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:
(previous post)

Big Picture​

- Negative EFP spread narrowing, waiting to see if COMEX is sending silver to London
- SGE/SFE at >$81 silver, maintains big premium to LBMA spot
- Indian futures backwardation >$.0.70
- LBMA free float likely ~3,554 metric tons (114M ozt) or just ~4M ozt liquid

ICYMI:​

It befuddles me how the COMEX gets away with trading paper contracts for so much less then Asian markets deliver actual metal. It strike me as a conflicting reality that must somehow break like a rubber band and it will be the physical, those that hold it in hand, will win.

It appears to me that BOTH London and New York are just running paper trading games. So that's why I don't really like to call that Backwardation and I don't think it really represents any physical movements.

The physical premium and market is now China. And they've been putting a premium on it for a long time now.

Yesterday (1-5) in silver

Yesterday silver spot broke though $76 during the day and $78 overnight. Below the surface, stress is percolating (again) ...

COMEX 1-2 activity​

598K ozt (18.6 tonnes) deposited in CNT (registered)

850K ozt (26.4 tonnes) withdrawn from JPM (650K) and MT&B (200K)

1.1M ozt (35.9 tonnes) moved from registered to eligible in the Asahi (570K), Brinks (334K), StoneX (147K) et al vaults

COMEX Commentary​

Finally we see the stirrings of withdrawal activity that I have been expecting for the last week or so. Is the COMEX going to rescue the LBMA again?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $78.17, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.44 vs -$1.16 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.22 vs -$0.81
Mar26 = +$0.12 vs -$0.43

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads have narrowed greatly again just as the COMEX was showing some signs of sending silver to London. Mar26 actually went positive. Poor LBMA. Will CME hike margins again to goose negative EFP spreads?

China​

China is driving the bus

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $86.86/ozt
Mar26 is at $86.26/ozt
$0.60/ozt backwardation vs $0.73/ozt yesterday

Backwardation narrowed under the $0.70-$1.00 range it had been for the last few trading days. Trend or anomaly?

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee steady at 0.70%

Looks like minimal share lending happening yesterday and plenty of shares are still available to plunder.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 3M shares shed
JPM: 2.7M ozt (84.6 tonnes) shed

SLV drain/raid is still happening. If you own SLV, talk to your broker about protecting your shares from being lent out.

PSLV​

4.1M units added
291K ozt (9 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3409. They need to add ~1.5M ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease rates​

Spiked to 8.85% before dropping to 7.3% - still elevated above the norm

LBMA​

Silver stock report due Jan 8 and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads narrowing; will COMEX deliver to London?
- SGE/SFE at >$87 - big premium to LBMA spot
- Indian futures backwardation persists
- SLV vault draining
- PSLV needing 1.5M ozt
- LBMA free float likely very thin

ICYMI:​

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 44.9
SFE silver vault - 127.8
SLV London vault - 59.2
PSLV silver vault - 59.1
COMEX silver stock - 12.2
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Dec 29-Jan 2 = 160.6
Dec 22-26 = 317.8
Dec 15-19 = 149.9
Dec 8-12 = 338.7
Dec 1-5 = 488.8
...

Last week appears to be a mixed bag. China vaults (SGE/SFE) had big drains, COMEX kept a lid on withdrawals (slight overall gain) and SLV shed vault stock. PSLV continues taking LGD silver off the table.

COMEX vault saw net inflows on Tue and Wed last week and net outflows Mon and Fri. EFP spreads were widely negative and I would have expected more withdrawals/drains, but we didn't see it.

SLV had a 6.3M ozt drain on Mon and a 4.8M gain on Tue. Schitzo! I think the LBMA is starting to experience stress again.

PSLV seems to be picking up the pace with adding silver to their vault stock even though they are behind the curve in keeping pace with new unit issuance. Are they having trouble sourcing the LGD silver bars?

Last week the SFE & SGE reported large outflows while maintaining a large premium to LBMA spot. Either China's domestic demand for physical silver has gone off the rails, or the LBMA is not delivering (can not deliver???) silver to China.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

Yesterday (1-6) in silver

Yesterday silver spot broke though $81 during the day and slammed back below $80 overnight. Below the surface, SLV is squawking ...

COMEX 1-5 activity​

1.6M ozt (49.6 tonnes) deposited in Asahi (531K registered), CNT (828K registered, 236K eligible)

1.9M ozt (59.3 tonnes) withdrawn from Brinks (480K), CNT (137K) and JPM (1.3M)

880K ozt (27.4 tonnes) moved from registered to eligible in the Asahi (278K), Brinks (171K), CNT (246K) and JPM (179K) et al vaults

COMEX Commentary​

Monday was a busy day at the COMEX! Nearly 2M withdrawn and nearly another 1M moved to eligible (ready to be withdrawn soon). Is the COMEX going to rescue the LBMA again or is the negative EFP spread going to turn positive and close that door?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $79.16, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.37 vs -$0.44 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.24 vs -$0.22
Mar26 = +$0.04 vs +$0.12

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads appear to have settled this morning - more or less where they were yesterday morning. Mar26 is still positive. Will we see actors taking Jan26 contracts for delivery (real, actual physical delivery) to ship to London?

China​

@oriental_ghost hasn't published the Jan 7 report as of this moment, but HUGO says China closed at +8.5% or +$6.81 per ounce above LBMA spot. That would put SGE silver price at around $86 to $87 I think.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $88.42/ozt
Mar26 is at $87.63/ozt
$0.79/ozt backwardation vs $0.60/ozt yesterday

Backwardation back above $0.70 (into the range it had been for the last few trading days previous to yesterday). Demand for immediate delivery physical silver is still strong in India.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee still 0.70%

IBKR did not report *any* activity yesterday. I have never seen that before. Is it a breakdown in the reporting, or a true reflection of market activity? Seems like the former to me as ...

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 8.35M shares shed
JPM: 5M ozt (156.8 tonnes) shed

SLV drain/raid accelerating even while spot price was going up (SLV usually adds shares/ozt when spot rises). How is this possible with no (reported) share borrowing activity?

PSLV​

2.7M units added
600K ozt (18.7 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3404. They need to add ~1.9M ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease rates​

Last report I saw on lease rates was two days ago. I've asked @BruceIkeGold for an update given the volatility we are seeing in the silver market presently. Hopefully he will oblige.

LBMA​

Silver stock report due tomorrow and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads steady near zero; will COMEX deliver to London?
- SGE/SFE at ~$87 - big premium to LBMA spot
- Indian futures backwardation persists
- SLV vault drain accelerating
- PSLV needing 1.8M ozt
- LBMA free float likely very thin

ICYMI:​

"Another thing to notice is that once again there is a mismatch between Blackrock’s info page (518.2 Mill oz) and the underlying bar list (520.9 mill oz)."

"Normally when there is a mismatch, it is because JPM was slow to update their bar report. But JPM did update their bar report yesterday, so this is curious indeed!"

Yesterday (1-7) in silver

Yesterday silver spot dipped below and the held at $78 and then fell below $76 overnight. Below the surface, SLV is squealing ...

COMEX 1-6 activity​

5K ozt (5 LGD bars) deposited in CNT

2.3M ozt (70.9 tons) withdrawn from Brinks (80K), HSBC (300K), JPM (1.3M), Loomis (607K)

5K ozt moved from [R] to [E] in JPM vault

1.2M ozt (37.3 tons) "adjusted" out of Brinks [E]

COMEX Commentary​

COMEX drain continued in earnest on Tuesday. I assume the Brinks "adjustment" was more withdrawn and headed to London with the rest. Curiously, very little moved from registered [R] to eligible [E] on Tuesday. Is the drain about to end?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $75.21, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.28 vs -$0.37 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.61 vs -$0.24
Mar26 = -$0.26 vs +$0.04

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads are widening negative again this morning as the "rebalancing" (index funds futures selling) begins. How much silver ocean will the COMEX drain (to the LBMA's gain) over the next few days? My guess is - a lot. The Jan26 contract is getting hammered.

China​

At 2.7M ozt (84.2 tons), the SFE silver vault reports the largest one day inflow since I started watching it daily back in June 2025. The largest I've seen before today was 1.5M ozt.

SGE silver holding the line at $81.74. Will the ~$6 premium to LBMA spot widen as the "rebalancing" begins today?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $83.44/ozt
Mar26 is at $82.50/ozt
$0.94/ozt backwardation vs $0.79/ozt yesterday

Backwardation growing. Demand for immediate delivery physical silver is still strong in India.

SLV Share Lending​

IBKR did not report *any* activity yesterday (again). Looks like Interactive Brokers is itself broken.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 650K shares shed
JPM: 3.3M ozt (102.9 tonnes) shed

SLV drain continues, but Blackrock share shedding slowed, so maybe over? JPM catches up to Blackrock (bar report now matches iShares page). The LBMA gets a reprieve for now.

PSLV​

No change to units
998K ozt (31 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3420. They need to add ~859K ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease rates​

I expect given the COMEX and SLV drains that thelease rates will likely ease a bit as the LBMA survives with a tiny oasis of liquid free float. However, the last report I saw on lease rates was three days ago. I've asked @BruceIkeGold for an update given the volatility we are seeing in the silver market presently. Hopefully he will oblige.

LBMA​

Silver stock report due today and will probably be a ridiculous number, but we can estimate what it likely really is:

Big Picture​

- Jan26 neg EFP spread + delivery requests
- COMEX draining
- China/SGE ~$6 premium to LBMA
- Indian futures backwardation growing
- SLV vault drain
- PSLV adding stock, still needs 859K ozt
- LBMA free float "ocean" surviving on COMEX/SLV garden hose

ICYMI:​

Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #322 for last month):

Global Vault Stock (in tons) - December 2025​

The West has roughly 16,400 metric tons vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs if you believe the LBMA number (I don't). That's a decrease of 537 metric tons over last month's report which might seem reasonable except for the India issue ...

The LBMA likely overstated November's vault stock number by at least 1,321 metric tons given Indian import data.

My realistic upper bound estimate for LBMA silver vault stock is 25,939 metric tons. Given known data, the LBMA vault stock appears to be overstated by at least ~1,879 metric tons.

Accepting the LBMA numbers as real, the total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is 17,865 metric tons (a decrease of ~318 tonnes). That's a ~1.7% drop in one month (and likely much higher if I'm right about the LBMA overstating their vault stock).

As China is now implementing export restrictions on silver, SGE/SFE vault stock is no longer a reliable supply for Western markets. Using my realistic upper bound LBMA estimate, the TGFF excluding China (SFE/SGE) is just 14,521 metric tons.

A while back, I estimated that ~$36B was enough to wipe out total global free float. The price of silver has risen a bit since then (I used $60/ozt back then), but the TGFF has shrunk, so the net value (using my LBMA estimate) is about the same:

14,521 metric tons = 466,861,000 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.3B

PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement. PSLV got busy again in December adding nearly 3% more vault stock over the month.

I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:

LBMA said:

These figures provide an important insight into London's ability to underpin the physical OTC market.

Click to expand...

I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.

LBMA + COMEX Free Float Vault Stock (in tons)​

Oct->Nov drain = 661 reported vs 1,011 estimated
Nov->Dec drain = 537 reported vs 1,916 estimated

At ~600/month, 16,400 run rate is 27 months
At ~1,500/month, 14,521 run rate is 10 months

Yesterday (1-8) in silver

Yesterday silver spot climbed to ~$77 and then jumped to $78 overnight. Below the surface, silver is flying around ...

COMEX 1-7 activity​

Zero silver deposited

3.2M ozt (101.3 tons) withdrawn from Asahi (595K), CNT (622K), Delaware (111K), HSBC (635K), JPM (1.3M)

1.7M ozt (54 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (389K), Brinks (349K), CNT (958K) et al vaults

COMEX Commentary​

Wed was busy in the COMEX vault system - especially JPM who moved 2 full truck loads out for the second day in row. We also saw a large swing of silver from registered [R] to eligible [E] likely preparing for withdrawal soon.

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $77.73, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.38 vs -$1.28 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.32 vs -$0.61
Mar26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.26

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads narrowed back essentially to where they were day before yesterday. Seems like the forced futures selling from the Bloomberg Commodities Index rebalancing had a very short half life.

China​

SFE futures are absorbing a margin increase, but SGE spot is rising and maintaining a healthy premium over LBMA spot.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $86.56/ozt
Mar26 is at $85.69/ozt
$0.87/ozt backwardation vs $0.94/ozt yesterday

Backwardation seems to be in a ~$0.90 range. Demand for immediate delivery physical silver is still strong in India.

SLV Share Lending​

IBKR signs of life!

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee fell from 0.70% to 0.47%

Shares available dipped below 10M a couple of times. Activity (or maybe just reporting) has resumed it seems.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 4.1M shares added
JPM: 3.7M ozt (115.6 tonnes) added

Spot price rising again, SLV adding inventory again. Yesterday's gain was a bit more than the drain from the day before. SLV still ~12M ozt off from the local high on Dec 22.

PSLV​

No change to units
300K ozt (9.3 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3425. They need to add ~559K ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Lease Rates (LBMA)​

COMEX opening up the valve on the garden hose and increasing the flow of silver ocean back to London (7.3M ozt or 226.9 tons since Jan 1) and SLV raiding (11M ozt or 344.3 tons Jan 1-7) have relieved some pressure on the LBMA.

LBMA​

LBMA released their monthly silver stock report for December and as expected, it doesn't make sense when considering known public data (including Indian imports):
2 posts up

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads narrowing to zero
- COMEX draining
- China/SGE ~$6 premium to LBMA
- Indian futures backwardation ~$0.90
- SLV vault drain over?
- PSLV adding stock, still needs 559K ozt
- LBMA benefits from COMEX + SLV drains; lease rates eased a bit

ICYMI:​

Yesterday (1-9) in silver

Yesterday silver spot climbed to ~$80. Below the surface, mixed currents flow ...

COMEX 1-8 activity​

Zero silver deposited (again!)

2.7M ozt (85.2 tons) withdrawn from Asahi (597K), Brinks (619K), CNT (602K), JPM (320K), Loomis (600K)

1.5M ozt (48 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (1M) & CNT (543K)

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday was a 5 trucks withdrawal day at the COMEX with another large trove of silver moved from registered [R] to eligible [E] (likely preparing for withdrawal soon).

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $79.94, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.06 vs -$0.38 yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.86 vs -$0.32
Mar26 = -$0.60 vs -$0.07

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads deeper negative again. Maybe the forced futures selling from the Bloomberg Commodities Index rebalancing wasn't quite finished?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $87.64/ozt
Mar26 is at $86.78/ozt
$0.86/ozt backwardation vs $0.87/ozt yesterday

Backwardation seems to be settling in a ~$0.90 range. Demand for immediate delivery physical silver is still strong in India.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee rose from 0.47% to 0.50%

Seems like there are still plenty of shares available to plunder.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 3.3M shares added
JPM: 3M ozt (93 tonnes) added

Spot price rising again, SLV adding inventory again. SLV shed ~11M ozt Mon-Wed and recovered ~6.7M ozt Thu-Fri this week. Good thing the COMEX drained ~10M ozt Mon-Thu. LBMA is going to need that silver.

PSLV​

2,375,521 units added
200K ozt (6.2 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3415. They need to add ~1.2M ozt to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads
- COMEX draining (+ LBMA FF)
- LBMA spot chasing China/SGE
- Indian futures backwardation ~$0.90
- SLV vault stock up (- LBMA FF)
- PSLV vault stock up, needs 1.2M ozt
- LBMA lease rates?

ICYMI:​

Overseer JPM has its work cut out for them

Liftoff to Ag $90.

Voodoo said:

It appears to me that BOTH London and New York are just running paper trading games. So that's why I don't really like to call that Backwardation and I don't think it really represents any physical movements.

Click to expand...

U spelt it wrong, it's spelt :- Retardation

Monday morning 1-12 in silver. Silver spot jumped to ~$84 Sunday night as China faces a supply shock. There are signs of turbulence below the surface ...

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $84.96, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.38 vs -$1.06 Saturday
Feb26 = -$1.16 vs -$0.86
Mar26 = -$0.93 vs -$0.60

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads even deeper negative this morning. By the time the Bloomberg Commodities Index rebalancing is done (suppressing futures price and enforcing a negative EFP spread), the COMEX might not have any liquid free float vault stock left...

China​

SGE silver explodes to $93.27. Rumors of SGE failure to deliver seem to be corroborated by explosive demand.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $93.13/ozt
Mar26 is at $92.41/ozt
$0.72/ozt backwardation vs $0.86/ozt Saturday

Backwardation eased, but holding still above $0.70.

Big Picture​

- EFP spreads
- COMEX draining (+ LBMA FF)
- China/SGE/SFE > Indian futures > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- Is China experiencing a silver supply shock?

ICYMI:​

Unh - where's this headed?
Are we looking at the complete collapse world currencys this year?

Bottom Feeder said:

Unh - where's this headed?
Are we looking at the complete collapse world currencys this year?

Click to expand...

I've been saying for months that physical silver demand is going to overwhelm the paper exchanges. The LBMA+COMEX are going to fail eventually if demand continues to outpace production. Supply can only drain to zero.

In the broader picture beyond just silver? Who knows. Too many variables/unknowns/possibilities.

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 152.5
SFE silver vault - 71.4
SLV London vault - 135.7
PSLV silver vault - 74.3
COMEX silver stock - 374.4
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Jan 5-9 = 659.7
Dec 29-Jan 2 = 160.6
Dec 22-26 = 317.8
Dec 15-19 = 149.9
...

Last week it was all hands on deck to to save the LBMA.

China vaults (SGE/SFE) present a big mystery of draining vault stock while maintaining huge premiums to LBMA spot. This should cause silver flow from London to China, but it looks like the LBMA is not delivering.

There were other signs of stress at the LBMA - lease rates climbed to 9%, backwardation in Indian MCX silver futures grew, etc. All while PSLV continued taking LGD silver off the table.

Given that backdrop, the COMEX and SLV vaults came to the LBMA's rescue. The huge drains from the COMEX + SLV last week allowed silver lease rates to drop from 9% down to 3%. Indian futures remain in backwardation, but they too eased up a bit.

COMEX vault had heavy outflows all week long. EFP spreads were firmly negative all week, so the COMEX draining was expected as bullion banks are likely shipping COMEX silver to London.

SLV shed ~11M ozt (342 tons) Mon-WEd and then recovered 6.7M ozt (208 tons) Thu-Fri. SLV is the emergency relief valve for the LBMA - raided for its vault stock when the LBMA gets into a pinch. It was being raided at the start of last week, but that ended when the spot price took off. SLV has been adding vault stock (taking away from the LBMA) since Thursday. As a result, the LBMA is now surviving on just the COMEX garden hose.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

Yesterday (1-12) in silver

Yesterday silver spot traded between $85 and $86. Below the surface, physical silver is flying around ...

COMEX 1-9 activity​

770K ozt (24 tons) silver deposited in Asahi (590K), HSBC (180K)

3M ozt (94.1 tons) withdrawn from Asahi (565K), Brinks (617K), CNT (351K), JPM (435K), Loomis (259K), StoneX (791K)

399K ozt (12.4 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (79K), CNT (226K), Delaware (64K), JPM (29K)

COMEX Commentary​

Friday was a 6 trucks withdrawal day at the COMEX. The amount of silver moved from registered [R] to eligible [E] (likely preparing for withdrawal soon) was minimal. The LBMA needs the COMEX to keep the spice flowing.

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $86.82, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.58 vs -$1.38 Yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.03 vs -$1.16
Mar26 = +$0.20 vs -$0.93

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads shifted back toward zero/positive hard this morning. The CME announced a change to a percentage based margin for silver contracts (as spot goes up, so do margins). Maybe it didn't have the intended effect? Will the COMEX keep the garden hose running for the LBMA if the Jan26 contract goes positive?

China​

SGE silver up slightly from yesterday's close.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $95.47/ozt
Mar26 is at $94.91/ozt
$0.56/ozt backwardation vs $0.86/ozt yesterday

Backwardation seems to be easing. Is the LBMA delivering silver to India again?

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee has risen to 0.52%

Available shares were under 10M yesterday. Borrow fee was up to 0.55% before falling. Not big numbers, but signs of activity.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 1.4M shares added
JPM: 1.2M ozt (39.5 tonnes) added

Spot price rising again, SLV adding inventory again. I'm guessing it would have added more, but share/vault stock raiding is still happening (ie. the net result is still adding to SLV vault stock).

PSLV​

7,866,400 units added
1.6M ozt (49.8 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3398. They need to add 2,275,294 ozt (70.8 tons) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Big Picture​

- Indian futures > China/SGE/SFE > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- EFP spreads shifting positive
- COMEX draining (LBMA garden hose flowing)
- Indian futures backwardation easing
- SLV vault stock up (squeezing LBMA)
- PSLV vault stock up, needs ~2.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

Yesterday (1-13) in silver

Yesterday silver spot teased $89 before returning to ~$87. Below the surface, garden hoses are flowing ...

COMEX 1-12 activity​

296K ozt (9.2 tons) silver deposited in Asahi

2.1M ozt (65.6 tons) withdrawn from Brinks (600K), CNT (206K), JPM (1.3M)

68K ozt (2.1 tons) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks vault

576K ozt (17.9 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in CNT vault

COMEX Commentary​

Monday was a 4 trucks withdrawal day at the COMEX. JPM's COMEX vault and SLV vault (see below) draining now. Are they having trouble delivering LBMA silver today like they did back in October?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $91.75, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.63 vs -$0.58 Yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.44 vs -$0.03
Mar26 = -$0.23 vs +$0.20

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads shifted slightly negative this morning. The EFP spreads seem to vary wildly depending upon what time of day you measure them (depending upon which markets are open and trading).

China​

SGE closed around $101.50/ozt. I expect LBMA spot to close the premium during today's trading. LBMA spot to ~$95/ozt today?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $100.82/ozt
Mar26 is at $100.23/ozt
$0.59/ozt backwardation vs $0.56/ozt yesterday

Backwardation settling at around $0.55-$0.60? China's SGE is higher than Indian futures again.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee has fallen to 0.45%

You might think given the plentiful shares and falling borrowing fee that SLV was not being raided right now, but ...

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 950K shares shed
JPM: 861K ozt (26.8 tonnes) shed

SLV raided while spot held it's ground (maybe that's why spot fell intraday from $89 to $87?). It appears that the SLV garden hose is available on demand (while supplies last of course).

PSLV​

1,558,132 units added
701K ozt (21.8 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3401. They need to add 2.1M ozt (65.6 tons) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Big Picture​

- China/SGE/SFE > Indian futures > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- EFP spreads holding negative
- COMEX draining (garden hose flowing to LBMA)
- Indian futures backwardation holding
- SLV vault stock raiding (garden hose flowing to LBMA)
- PSLV vault stock up, needs ~2.1M ozt

ICYMI:​

I cancelled a PSLV sell order for $31 after looking at your demand data....

I wouldn't sell long PM ETFs here. There is another 10% coming short term.

Yesterday (1-14) in silver

Yesterday silver spot teased $93 during the day, got hammered to ~$87 after the close and is rising back through the overnight. Below the surface, garden hoses keep flowing ...

COMEX 1-13 activity​

Zero silver deposited

1.3M ozt (40.8 tons) withdrawn from Asahi (435K), Brinks (772K), StoneX (101K)

590K ozt (18.4 tons) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi vault

840K ozt (26.1 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (487K), JPM (55K), Loomis (96K), StoneX (202K)

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday was a 2 trucks withdrawal day at the COMEX. Curiously, no activity in the JPM vault. Oddly, Asahi moved a lot of silver to registered [R] when they are (relatively) low on eligible [E} vault stock.

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $91.35, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.85 vs -$0.63 Yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.47 vs -$0.44
Mar26 = -$0.38 vs -$0.23

EFP Commentary​

COMEX -> LBMA garden hose faucet remains open as EFP spreads remain firmly negative this morning. The Jan26 contract appears to be seeing a lot of a delivery requests as it is the garden hose supplying the LBMA's empty swimming pool.

China​

SGE silver trades even with yesterday's close at $101.5 in overnight trading. The SFE silver vault reports a 312K ozt (9.7 tonnes) inflow. It looks like China may have got some LBMA silver delivered to quell the demand a bit.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $100.20/ozt
Mar26 is at $99.57/ozt
$0.63/ozt backwardation vs $0.59/ozt yesterday

Backwardation slowly creeping wider over the last few days. China's SGE remains higher than Indian futures for 2nd day.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee rose from 0.44% to 0.59%

Seems like there was little activity, but the borrowing fee moved up a decent bit for one day. Still plenty of shares to plunder.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 2.8M shares shed
JPM: 2.5M ozt (78.9 tonnes) shed

SLV raided while spot rose (during the day anyway!). The faucet to the SLV-LBMA garden hose is wide open.

PSLV​

4,381,286 units added
1M ozt (31.1 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3393. They need to add 2.6M ozt (81.3 tons) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Big Picture​

- China/SGE/SFE > Indian futures > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- EFP spreads holding negative
- COMEX draining (garden hose to LBMA)
- Indian futures backwardation holding
- SLV vault stock raiding (garden hose to LBMA)
- PSLV vault stock up, needs ~2.6M ozt

ICYMI:​

Yesterday (1-15) in silver

Yesterday silver spot crashed to $88, recovered to ~$93 during the day, and bobbed around $91 through the overnight. Below the surface, JPM is very busy ...

COMEX 1-14​

641K ozt (19.9 tons) deposited in CNT (589K [R], 17K [E])

1.6M ozt (50.4 tons) withdrawn from JPM (1.4M), Loomis (100K) et al

127K ozt (4 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in JPM

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday was a 3 trucks withdrawal day at the COMEX. JPM did most of the work. I have to wonder if they are feeling stressed given the COMEX activity and the SLV activity (see below).

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $91.17, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$1.60 vs -$0.85 Yesterday
Feb26 = -$0.46 vs -$0.47
Mar26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.38

EFP Commentary​

Jan26 EFP spread shifted strongly negative this morning. The Jan26 faucet for the COMEX->LBMA garden hose is wide open. I wonder how many delivery notices the Jan26 contract will accrue today...

China​

SGE silver trades more or less even with yesterday's close in overnight trading. The SFE silver vault reports a 371K ozt (11.5 tonnes) outflow (slightly more than yesterday's inflow).

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $100.29/ozt
Mar26 is at $99.57/ozt
$0.72/ozt backwardation vs $0.63/ozt yesterday

Backwardation still slowly creeping wider. China's SGE remains higher than Indian futures for 3rd day.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee rose from 0.59% to 0.62%

Activity appears to be picking up. Still plenty of shares to plunder.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 6.4M shares shed
JPM: 5.8M ozt (180.5 tonnes) shed

SLV raided twice as hard as yesterday while spot rose (again!). The faucet to the SLV-LBMA garden hose is even wider open. Looks to me like the LBMA is in trouble and leaning on the SLV safety cushion.

PSLV​

Zero units change
902K ozt (28 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .3407. They need to add 1.7M ozt (53.2 tons) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Big Picture​

- China/SGE/SFE > Indian futures > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- Jan26 EFP spread strongly negative
- COMEX(LBMA )
- Indian futures backwardation
- SLV (LBMA )
- PSLV , needs ~1.7M ozt

ICYMI:​

~~~

Expanding on the big picture a bit here ...

SGE silver price has closed at ~$101/ozt for the 3rd day in a row. In those three days, JPM's COMEX vault has shed ~2.7M ozt (~84 tons). SLV (JPM's LBMA vault) has shed 9.2M ozt (286 tons).

This is pure speculation on my part, but it seems likely that JPM is working hard to free up silver for the LBMA to ship to China and that influx of supply might have been just enough to balance SGE demand and quell the rising SGE price for silver.

That level of draining (especially from SLV) is not sustainable though. There will be fireworks when the faucet is closed.

Its options expiry day for things such as SLV and GLD. So they have the normal Mr Slammy on open going.

Monday is MLK Jr. holiday so USA markets will be closed. Will the bullion banks allow the SGE to maintain a huge premium to spot on Monday? My guess is the slam recovers by the end of the day.

I still have 2 of my 70 SLV calls left... gonna make em sweat and hold towards the end of the day.

Yesterday (1-16) in silver

Yesterday (Op-Ex) silver dove from ~$91 to ~$87, and recovered to ~$90. Below the surface, JPM is still very busy ...

COMEX 1-15​

Zero deposited

4.2M ozt (131.4 tons) withdrawn from Asahi (1.4M), CNT (1.2M), JPM (1.3M), Loomis (308K)

2.6M ozt (80 tons) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (180K), Brinks (867K), CNT (608K), JPM (82K), Loomis (48K), MT&B (784K)

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday was a 7 trucks withdrawal day at the COMEX. Big movements happening now. While large amounts were freed up from [R] category, only a small amount was moved in the JPM vault. Are they reaching the liquidity limit of their COMEX holdings?

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $90.13, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$2.04 vs -$1.60 Yesterday
Feb26 = -$1.90 vs -$0.46
Mar26 = -$1.59 vs -$0.07

EFP Commentary​

All EFP spreads shifted strongly negative. The COMEX->LBMA garden hose is wide open. I expect we will see withdrawals from COMEX stay above 4M ozt/day ...

China​

SGE premium over LBMA is huge right now (~$10/ozt). USA will be closed Monday for MLK Jr. holiday. China will be open. Will the Chinese bullion banks be taking advantage of the huge arbitrage?

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 is at $99.36/ozt
Mar26 is at $98.66/ozt
$0.70/ozt backwardation vs $0.72/ozt yesterday

Backwardation held steady. China's SGE remains higher than Indian futures.

SLV Share Lending​

Shares available currently 10M

Borrow fee fell from 0.62% to 0.52%

Activity appears to be picking up. Still plenty of shares to plunder.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 400K shares added
JPM: 3M ozt (93.4 tonnes) shed in NYC vault
JPM: 3.4M ozt (104.7 tonnes) added in LBMA vault

Looks like JPM had to swap SLV's NYC vaulted silver for silver held in London. LBMA free float liquidity must be tight!

PSLV​

Zero units change
200K ozt (6.2 tonnes) added

PSLV units/ozt ratio sits at .341. They need to add 1.5M ozt (47 tons) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio

Big Picture​

- China/SGE/SFE > Indian futures > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- EFP spreads strongly negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- Indian futures backwardation steady @ $0.70
- SLV (LBMA)
- PSLV , needs ~1.5M ozt

ICYMI:​

pmbug said:

Big Picture

- China/SGE/SFE > Indian futures > LBMA spot > COMEX futures
- EFP spreads strongly negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- Indian futures backwardation steady @ $0.70
- SLV (LBMA)
- PSLV , needs ~1.5M ozt

​

Click to expand...

I guess it was just a matter of time until we started using emojis as verbs.

I'm composing those daily reports in Notepad to post both here and on X. X limits the number of characters I can use without truncating on the feed, so I have to get creative to fit it all in.

The bigger on-line sites seem to have spot around $90.80 right now but the cheapest I could find was all $96-98 without looking at junk silver.

Monday morning 1-19 in silver. Silver spot jumped up to ~$94 Sunday night before settling around $93 as the world starts assessing tariff risks. Today is a market holiday in the USA, but silver is global ...

EFP spread​

With a current spot price of $93.10, EFP spreads:

Jan26 = -$0.60 vs -$2.04 Saturday
Feb26 = -$0.32 vs -$1.90
Mar26 = -$0.14 vs -$1.59

EFP Commentary​

Trump's tariff threat included "any and all goods" from European countries including the UK. This would include LBMA gold and silver. It looks like the bullion banks are pricing in risk now as the EFP spreads shift back towards positive. If the Jan26 contract goes positive, I expect COMEX withdrawals (bound for London) to stop.

China​

SGE silver closed @ ~$103.35/ozt (~$10/ozt premium over LBMA spot).

SFE silver vault292K ozt (9 ton)
SGE silver vault289K ozt (9 ton) last week

Both vaults are still bleeding inventory, but the bleeding is slowing down.

Indian MCX Futures​

Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $104.21/ozt
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $103.56/ozt

Indian futures once again trading above SGE (China spot). It appears that the price difference between the MCX contracts may be related to margin costs so comparing them directly was not signalling what I had thought.

Big Picture​

- Indian futures >= China/SGE/SFE >>> LBMA spot > COMEX Jan26
- EFP spreads (tariff risk)
- USA market holiday

ICYMI:​

It's amazing how close the Indian prices have been to the Chinese markets... So does that mean that Indian is really driving the physical buying right now? Or just that the two markets are closest to real physical markets.

Silver is reverting back to its monetary status. As soon as retail in the west figures that out Ag will move even faster.

Voodoo said:

It's amazing how close the Indian prices have been to the Chinese markets... So does that mean that Indian is really driving the physical buying right now? Or just that the two markets are closest to real physical markets.

Click to expand...

The Indian MCX futures prices include a 6% VAT. They should be trading ~6% more than China/LBMA. SGE price was greater than MCX recently which IMO signaled severe supply stress in China. Looks like it might be settling down (or demand in India is rising to China's equal).

nickndfl said:

... As soon as retail in the west figures that out ...

Click to expand...

Good information about historical Ag manipulation and current market status.