Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

There are a lot of interesting things in today's report(s):

Mar 17 AM Silver Market​

SGE $91.76
SFE $91.68
Retail $82.88
MCX $81.78
Spot $80.55
Mar26 $80.54 (~4.5 hours old)

1mo Lease Rate0.77%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.33

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver rose from ~$79 to ~$81, drifted down to ~$80 and then up to ~$82.50 during the night, and has drifted back down to $80+ this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo has bounced from 0.62% last Thu to 0.77% yesterday ( @KarelMercx for the data). COMEX drain slowed Mar9-Mar11 so that might explain the rise even though SLV is still draining aggressively.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:32: $80.55

Mar26 = -$0.33 vs -$0.32 Previous (spot @ 02:52: $80.87)
Apr26 = -$0.10 vs -$0.10 (spot @ 07:28: $80.61)
May26 = +$0.12 vs +$0.23

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads mostly held firm. Mar26 remains firmly negative. COMEX should continue to drain to the LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.09 (less 10% taxes = $82.88)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $88.13 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$81.78)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.24
MCX 'spot' : $85.55 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $91.76(no VAT)
SFE $91.68

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.12

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 17 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV3.35M
COMEX2.1M

COMEX run rate~99d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~32d

Details

COMEX 3-13​

6K ozt (0.2t) in Delaware

2.1M ozt (66.8t) from Asahi (856K), CNT (216K), JPM (647K), Loomis (303K) et al

10K ozt (0.3t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (5K) and Loomis (5K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 339.6M ozt (78.9M [R], 260.6M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.34M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 78.9M / 805K = ~98 (working) days (~5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,145
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 40,725,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 19,249,855.90

Withdrawals are currently ~47% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 2.1M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and the run rate estimate grew by 9 days. I expect the 5 day moving avg will begin rising today and the run rate will begin shrinking with tomorrow's report.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee held at 0.40%

Interactive Brokers reported no activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.7M shares
JPM:3.35M ozt (104.2t)

SLV London stock lowest since Nov 21 (when spot was ~$51).

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

741K ozt (23t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,373,740.00 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 608K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 8,868,783.00 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 1.4M/week

Run rate = 8.9M / 1.4M = ~6 weeks (~1.5 months)

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 96.1
SFE silver vault - 70.6
SLV London vault - 301.4
PSLV silver vault - 0.00003
COMEX silver stock - 208.6
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Mar 9-13 = 535.50003
Mar 2-6 = 705.191
Feb 23-27 = 214.42
Feb 16-20 = 764.27
Feb 9-13 = 720.8993
Feb 2-6 = 22.6
...


SFE vault stock turned a corner last week and began growing with a large inflow on Thursday and consistent inflows since then.

On the other hand, the SGE's vault stock drain has accelerated. The SGE's run rate at the current drain rate is less than 2 months remaining. SGE price is now greater than SFE price which is not normal and further indicates the seriousness of the low SGE vault stock.

It seems like the ~$12 SGE premium over LBMA spot still isn't sufficient to entice LBMA silver to flow to China (see below for more on this).

PSLV just posted a small 1 ozt adjustment last week. PSLV remains curiously quiet.

Last week the COMEX continued it's 2026 draining streak though the rate of drain slowed down a bit.

SLV's drain ramped up last Wednesday - almost like it was compensating the LBMA for a slower flow of COMEX silver. The 1mo silver lease rate got hammered below 1% in accordance with the SLV outflows. SLV's London vault stock was last this low back on November 21 - when silver spot was ~$51. One might think equilibrium point for SLV vault stock given a spot price at ~$81 (~60% higher) should probably be higher than it currently is.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

~~~

UK silver export to China/HK:

Nov 21st you say? NOICE. That was the low right before blastoff to $120.

Mar 18 AM Silver Market​

SFE $90.33
SGE $90.28
Retail $81.06
MCX $80.54
Spot $79.75
Mar26 $78.59 (~18 hours old)

1mo Lease Rate0.69%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.55

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver fell from $80+ to ~$79, buionced around at night and has climbed back to just under $80 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo fell from 0.77% to 0.69% yesterday ( @KarelMercx for the data). I had expected this kind of move in yesterday's morning report given the SLV vault drain:

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 06:28: $79.75

Mar26 = -$0.55 vs -$0.33 Previous (spot @ 11:45 Mar 17: $79.13)
Apr26 = +$0.03 vs -$0.10 (spot @ 06:24: $79.87)
May26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.12

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread goes deeper negative. Apr26 spread shifts positive and May26 spread held firm. COMEX should continue to drain to the LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $90.07 (less 10% taxes = $81.06)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $86.79 (less 7.2% taxes = $80.54)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $84.95
MCX 'spot' : $84.01 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $90.28(no VAT)
SFE $90.33

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE premium to SGE @ +$0.05

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 18 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1M
COMEX1.7M
SFE220K

COMEX run rate~89d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~32d (as of Mar 13)

Details

COMEX 3-16​

1.7M ozt (52.6t) from Brinks (379K), CNT (10K), JPM (1.3M)

39K ozt (1.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (24K) and Loomis (15K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 337.9M ozt (78.9M [R], 259M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.48M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 78.9M / 890K = ~89 (working) days (~4.5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,302
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 41,510,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 20,939,425.44

Withdrawals are currently ~50% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 1.7M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and the run rate estimate shrunk by 10 days. As I expected, the 5 day moving avg has begun rising and the run rate has begun shrinking.

SLV Share Lending​

9.2M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.40% to 0.38%

Interactive Brokers reported minimal activity yesterday. I expect shares available will return to 10M today.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.2M shares
JPM (London):4M ozt (127.1t)
JPM (NYC):3M ozt (93.3t)
JPM (Net):1M ozt (33.8t)

For the 5th month in a row, SLV drains ~3M ozt from the NYC vault in the middle of the month. This month, it again looks like a swap for metal in London.

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

220K ozt (6.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,153,740.00 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 611K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Mar 19 AM Silver Market​

SGE $81.14
SFE $81.02 (SGE > SFE!)
MCX $73.07
Retail $72.83
Spot $70.74
Mar26 $70.36

1mo Lease Rate0.68%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.13

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver fell from $78+ to ~$76, then crashed down to $70 over night and has climbed back to just under $71 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo fell from 0.69% to 0.68% yesterday ( @KarelMercx for the data). Since March 12, the 1mo lease rate is up (from 0.62%) and SLV is down ~9M ozt (274.7t). This is highly unusual.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:24: $70.74

Mar26 = -$0.13 vs -$0.55 Previous (spot @ 07:14: $70.49)
Apr26 = -$0.12 vs +$0.03 (spot @ 07:06: $70.55)
May26 = +$0.18 vs +$0.11

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread tightens (shifts more positive). Apr26 spread shifts back negative and May26 spread remains firmly positive. COMEX should continue to drain to the LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $80.92 (less 10% taxes = $72.83)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $78.74 (less 7.2% taxes = $73.07)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $76.90
MCX 'spot' : $78.20 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $81.14(no VAT)
SFE $81.02

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.12

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 19 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV4M
COMEX2.8M
SFE577K

COMEX run rate~69d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~32d (as of Mar 13)

Details

COMEX 3-17​

2.8M ozt (87.6t) from HSBC (20K), JPM (1.6M), StoneX (1.2M)

moved from [R] to [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 335.1M ozt (78.9M [R], 256.2M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.89M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 78.9M / 1.135M = ~69 (working) days (~3.5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,543
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 42,715,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 23,756,483.32

Withdrawals are currently ~56% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 2.8M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and the run rate estimate shrunk by 20 days. As I expected, the 5 day moving avg has begun rising and the run rate has begun shrinking.

SLV Share Lending​

8.1M Shares available

Borrow fee held at 0.38%

SLV share borrowing getting active again! Available shares did return to 10M yesterday as predicted, but quickly got drawn down again.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:4.45M shares
JPM (London):4M ozt (125.4t)

Tuesday's 4M London inflow just disappeared. ICYMI:

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

577K ozt (17.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,730,680 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 353K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Mar 20 AM Silver Market​

SGE $80.26
SFE $79.56 (SGE > SFE!)
Retail $74.71
MCX $73.28
Spot $72.24
Mar26 $70.93 (~17 hours old)

1mo Lease Rate0.65%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.49

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver fell from ~$70+ to ~$65, then rose to ~$72.60 by the close and climbed to $75+ during the night before drifting back down to ~$72 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo remains resilient dropping from 0.68% to 0.65% yesterday while SLV (et al) continues draining. This is highly unusual.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:32: $72.24

Mar26 = -$0.49 vs -$0.13 Previous (spot @ 14:20 Mar 19: $71.42)
Apr26 = -$0.10 vs -$0.12
May26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.18

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread remains firmly negative. Apr26 and May26 spreads tighten slightly. COMEX should continue to drain to the LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.01 (less 10% taxes = $74.71)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $78.96 (less 7.2% taxes = $73.28)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.58
MCX 'spot' : $76.88 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $80.26(no VAT)
SFE $79.56

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.70

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 20 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.8M
COMEX391K
SFE76K

COMEX run rate~69d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~32d (as of Mar 13)

Details

COMEX 3-18​

558K (17.4t) to Loomis (10K), StoneX (498K [R], 50K [E])

949K ozt (29.5t) mostly from JPM

moved from [R] to [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 334.7M ozt (79.4M [R], 255.3M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.93M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.4M / 1.157M = ~69 (working) days (~3.5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,681
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 43,405,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 24,705,642.22

Withdrawals are currently ~57% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 391K ozt net withdrawal was smaller than I expected, but still brought the 5 day moving average up and the run rate estimate held steady thanks largely to a 498K deposit directly into the [R] category.

SLV Share Lending​

7.5M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.38% to 0.44%

SLV share borrowing is very active for the 2nd day in a row. Available shares now draining below 10M after every restocking.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.75M shares
JPM (London):1.8M ozt (56.3t)

SLV shares back to level last seen on November 13 when spot price was ~$50.54

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

76K ozt (2.4t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,654,480 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 231K/day deposit!

Run rate =

China’s ravenous appetite for silver lifted overseas purchases to an eight-year high at the start of 2026, as importers fed a surge in industrial and investment demand.

The world’s biggest buyer pulled in over 790 tons in the first two months, including nearly 470 tons in February, the highest ever for that month, according to Chinese customs data on Friday. ...

Click to expand...

More:

Mar 21 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.3M
COMEX2M

COMEX run rate~73d
SFE run rate (as of Mar 20)
SGE run rate ~32d (as of Mar 13)

Details

COMEX 3-19​

41K ozt (1.3t) to CNT

2M ozt (63.2t) from Brinks (616K), MT&B (1.4M) et al

212K ozt (6.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (102K), CNT (41K), HSBC (64K), StoneX (5K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 332.7M ozt (79.2M [R], 253.5M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.81M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.2M / 1.08M = ~73 (working) days (~3.5 months)

Run Rate Note​

I'm using a 5 day moving average for the net withdraw rate to calculate a run rate for [R]egistered vault stock. The average daily net withdraw rate over the last five months has ranged from 270K ozt/day to 2.4M ozt/day. There is a lot of variance!

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,713
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 43,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 26,735,996.89

Withdrawals are currently ~61% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 2M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down slightly and the run rate estimate grew by 4 days. Withdrawals are a bit inconsistent lately (high one day, low the next).

SLV Share Lending​

8.6M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.44% to 0.84%

SLV share borrowing is very active for the 3rd day in a row now. Available shares now sustaining at less than 10M. The borrow fee nearly doubled yesterday!

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.2M shares
JPM (London):1.3M ozt (40.9t)

SLV added shares and vault stock as borrowing activity increases and the borrowing fee nearly doubles. Did someone patch SLV's wound and stop the bleeding? Is the massive daily drain over?

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

Mar 23 AM Silver Market​

Retail $70.21
SFE $69.37
SGE $68.73
MCX $68.72
Mar26 $67.60 (>Spot!)
Spot $67.30

1mo Lease Rate0.64%
Mar26 EFP spread +$0.30

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Last night, silver fell from ~$68 to ~$60, then recovered back to ~$68 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo remains resilient dropping from 0.65% to 0.64% on Friday. Has it bottomed out?

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:50: $67.30

Mar26 = +$0.30 vs -$0.49 Previous
Apr26 = +$0.33 vs -$0.10
May26 = +$0.57 vs +$0.11

EFP Commentary​

All EFP spreads strongly positive! Will they normalize after the US markets open? If not, this should dampen the flow of silver from COMEX to LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $78.01 (less 10% taxes = $70.21)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $74.05 (less 7.2% taxes = $68.72)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $72.83
MCX 'spot' : $68.04 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $68.73(no VAT)
SFE $69.37

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$5
SFE premium to SGE @ +$0.64

SFE Run Rate​

66K ozt (2.1t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,720,520 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 217K/day deposit!

Run rate =

ICYMI:​

Mar 24 AM Silver Market​

SGE $77.60 (>SFE!)
SFE $77.24
Retail $71.57
MCX $70.81
Spot $69.92
Mar26 $69.28 (~2 hours old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.66%
Mar26 EFP spread +$0.06

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver rose to $70+, fell back to ~$68, rose back to ~$70 and closed at $69. At night, silver touched ~$70, crashed to $66 and has climbed back to ~$70 this morning. Rollercoaster!

Lease rate​

1mo climbed up to 0.74% early yesterday before settling around 0.66% this morning. Will it start climbing now? SLV has added vault stock two days in a row now. It's looking like the lease rate should climb again.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 06:44: $69.92

Mar26 = +$0.06 vs +$0.30 Previous (spot @ 04:32 - $69.22)
Apr26 = -$0.10 vs +$0.33 (spot @ 05:56 - $70.10)
May26 = +$0.16 vs +$0.57

EFP Commentary​

All EFP spreads shifted negative, but the Mar26 EFP spread remains positive this morning. This should dampen the flow of silver from COMEX to LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.52 (less 10% taxes = $71.57)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $76.31 (less 7.2% taxes = $70.81)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $74.85
MCX 'spot' : $73.92 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $77.60(no VAT)
SFE $77.24

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.36

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 24 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV8.5M
COMEX605K
SFE44K
SGE793K

COMEX run rate~88d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~50d (as of Mar 20)

Details

COMEX 3-20​

605K ozt (18.8t) from JPM (600K), CNT (5K)

moved from [R] to [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 332.1M ozt (79.2M [R], 252.9M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.5M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.2M / 899K = ~88 (working) days (~4.4 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,834
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 44,170,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 27,340,758.19

Withdrawals are currently ~62% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 605K ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and the run rate estimate grew by 15 days. As COMEX withdrawals shrink, I expect the LBMA's liquid free float to face increased pressure:

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.84% to 0.43% and bounced back to 0.50%

Available shares fell to a low of 5.5M yesterday before replenishing. The borrow fee is becoming more volatile.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:9.4M shares
JPM:8.5M ozt (264.8t)

SLV adds massively. That's got to hurt the LBMA's liquid free float!

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

SFE Run Rate​

44K ozt (1.4t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,764,700 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 78K/day deposit (it is shrinking...)

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

793K ozt (24.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 9,661,621 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 964K/week

Run rate = 9.7M / 964K = ~10 weeks (~2.5 months)

Mar 25 AM Silver Market​

SGE $81.68 (>SFE!)
SFE $81.64
Retail $73.85
MCX $73.34
Spot $72.57
Mar26 $72.00 (~30 mins old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.58%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.24

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver bobbed around $70 until the close, rose to ~$74 at night, and has drifted back down to ~$72.50 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo fell to 0.58% yesterday. Very curious indeed as SLV reported no activity yesterday.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 06:20: $72.57

Mar26 = -$0.24 vs +$0.06 Previous (spot @ 05:48 - $72.24)
Apr26 = -$0.25 vs -$0.10 (spot @ 05:54 - $72.69)
May26 = +$0.23 vs +$0.16

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 and Apr26 EFP spreads firmly negative this morning. The COMEX to LBMA faucet is back to open again.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $82.05 (less 10% taxes = $73.85)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $79.03 (less 7.2% taxes = $73.34)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.83
MCX 'spot' : $77.42 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $81.68(no VAT)
SFE $81.64

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.04

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 25 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV91.90
COMEX639K
SFE327K

COMEX run rate~99d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~50d (as of Mar 20)

Details

COMEX 3-23​

920 ozt (0.03t) in Delaware

640K ozt (19.9t) from JPM (606K), Delaware (18K), Loomis (15K)

2.6M ozt (82.5t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (752K), Brinks (327K), CNT (595K), HSBC (305K), Loomis (92K), MT&B (318K), StoneX (260K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 331.5M ozt (76.5M [R], 254.9M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.29M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.5M / 773K = ~99 (working) days (~5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,877
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 44,385,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 27,980,364.63

Withdrawals are currently ~63% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 639K ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and the run rate estimate grew by 11 days. Mar26 EFP spread turned positive on Monday, so I expected muted withdrawals. May not last long though.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee bobbed up and down and sits at 0.48%

Available shares steady at 10M, but the borrow fee remains unsettled.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:
JPM:91.90 ozt (0.003t)

Was there actually no share and significant vault stock activity, or did Blackrock and JPM just fail to report it?

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

SFE Run Rate​

327K ozt (10.2t) - solid inflow!

Remaining Vault Stock = 12,091,700 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 187K/day deposit

Run rate =

Hello, just posted an estimate of a Comex sub-category (created) named 'Available to Withdraw' in Eligible to try to get an idea of what is free-floating stocks over on X using @75kawi900z1b. Withdrawals and Adjustments to the new category are pretty cut & dried, but I wasn't sure what to do with deposits, since some could be for emcumbered stocks, so I decided to put them all in A2W to try to create a floor in Eligible stocks. Comments or suggestions welcome to get the analysis thru initial rough draft stage. I would post it here, but I'm not sure I can yet. Regards!

You can post the URL to the tweet and this forum will embed it automatically:


JPM currently holds 88,168,893.500 troy ounces of SLV silver in their COMEX Eligible vault.

I have COMEX silver stock reports going back to June 2025. If you want later than that, you can try reaching out to Nick Laird ( @GoldFishCharts ). I didn't fully understand what you were doing with your computations.

Mar 26 AM Silver Market​

SFE $78.76
SGE $77.95
Retail $69.77
MCX $69.71
Spot $68.21
Mar26 $70.10 (~5.3 hours old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.579%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.13

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver fell from $72+ to ~$71 at the close, and fell to ~$68 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo fell ever so slightly from 0.584% to 0.579% yesterday. SLV is also reporting no change to its vault stock.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:10: $68.21

Mar26 = -$0.13 vs -$0.24 Previous (spot @ 01:50 - $70.23)
Apr26 = -$0.20 vs -$0.25 (spot @ 06:46 - $67.90)
May26 = +$0.25 vs +$0.23

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 contract ends tomorrow. Apr26 EFP spread is firmly negative this morning.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $77.52 (less 10% taxes = $69.77)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $75.12 (less 7.2% taxes = $69.71)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $73.59
MCX 'spot' : $77.40 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $77.95(no VAT)
SFE $78.76

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8.5
SFE premium to SGE @ $0.81

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 26 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX2.6M
SFE186K

COMEX run rate~102d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~50d (as of Mar 20)

Details

COMEX 3-24​

113K ozt (3.5t) in StoneX [R]

2.7M ozt (84.7t) from JPM (605K), Loomis (614K), MT&B (1.5M), et al

10K ozt (0.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 328.8M ozt (76.7M [R], 252.2M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.25M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.7M / 748K = ~102 (working) days (~5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 9,152
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 45,760,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 30,704,256.80

Withdrawals are currently ~67% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 2.6M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down slightly and the run rate estimate grew by 3 days. Mar26 contract ends tomorrow.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.48% to 0.38%

The volume of borrowing activity appeared to wane yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:
JPM:

Day two of zero SLV activity.

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

SFE Run Rate​

186K ozt (5.8t)

Remaining Vault Stock = 11,905,390 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 35K/day deposit (very thin inflow!)

Run rate =

pmbug said:

You can post the URL to the tweet and this forum will embed it automatically:


JPM currently holds 88,168,893.500 troy ounces of SLV silver in their COMEX Eligible vault.

I have COMEX silver stock reports going back to June 2025. If you want later than that, you can try reaching out to Nick Laird ( @GoldFishCharts ). I didn't fully understand what you were doing with your computations.

Click to expand...

Ok, thanks! Doesn't sound like I can just post a screenshot here like I do at X, so here's a summary page of my spreadsheet. It has a setup page where the daily stocks reports run one after another tieing them all together. Looking to add the info back to the vault highs back in October and am curious about the flows in the run-up to last year's highs. Once cataloged, I like to gage trends and look for anomalies, etc. So how best to get a peek at your daily vault reports?

AGgregator said:

... So how best to get a peek at your daily vault reports?

Click to expand...

What is the date range that you need? I can .zip them up and email them to you.

pmbug said:

What is the date range that you need? I can .zip them up and email them to you.

Click to expand...

If it is easy and quick to group and zip to send them all, I can sort out what I need - else, group and send them as you see fit and as time allows.

Specifically, I started downloading from CME's site on 2/4/25 which I screenshotted in a nice one page pic, so I have those in a nice format already.
Jon @ silvertrade's feed has some omissions when he started posting them on 11/11 to 2/4 and most days he has multiple pics, so it would be nice to get those down to 1 pic per day. (and I can figure out which days he omitted and let you know those dates)
Everything pre-11/11/25.

Thanks!

Mar 27 AM Silver Market​

SFE $78.76
SGE $77.95
Retail $70.23
MCX $69.09
Spot $68.79
Apr26 $68.51

1mo Lease Rate0.358%
Apr26 EFP spread -$0.27

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened at ~$67, rose to $69+, closed back at ~$67, rose up to ~$70 at night and has fallen back to $68+ this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo dropped in a big move from 0.579% to 0.358%. This mirrored SLV posting a large withdrawal. Is the correlation back on track? Is SLV painting the tape for the end of the month?

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 06:24: $68.79

Apr26 = -$0.27 vs -$0.20 Previous (spot @ 06:22 - $68.78)
May26 = +$0.05 vs +$0.25
Jun26 = +$0.31 (spot @ 06:10 - $68.79)

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 contract is off the board. Apr26 EFP spread remains firmly negative. May26 EFP spread shifts negatively. It looks like COMEX silver will continue flowing to London.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $78.03 (less 10% taxes = $70.23)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $74.45 (less 7.2% taxes = $69.09)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $73.24
MCX 'spot' : $74.21 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $78.66(no VAT)
SFE $78.72

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE premium to SGE @ $0.06

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 27 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV3.4M
COMEX293K
SFE48K

COMEX run rate~105d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~50d (as of Mar 20)

Details

COMEX 3-25​

498K ozt (15.5t) in Loomis (124K [R]), StoneX (373K [R])

791K ozt (24.6t) from Asahi (107K), Loomis (606K), HSBC (64K), et al

moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 328.5M ozt (77.2M [R], 251.4M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.23M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.2M / 736K = ~105 (working) days (~5.25 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 9,158
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 45,790,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 31,495,259.99

Withdrawals are currently ~69% (great success! ) of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 293K ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down slightly and the run rate estimate grew by 3 days (also helped by deposits directly into [R]). Mar26 contract is now off the board. I expect withdrawals to pick up soon.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.38% to 0.42%

The volume of borrowing activity is again muted.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.7M shares
JPM:3.4M ozt (104.2t)

Looks like SLV isn't quite done shedding vault stock after all. Are the LBMA member bullion banks trying to paint the tape for the LBMA's end of the month vault stock report? Will we see a huge inflow on April 1 like we saw with end Jan-start Feb?

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

SFE Run Rate​

48K ozt (1.5t)

Remaining Vault Stock = 11,953,620 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 60K/day deposit (very thin inflow!)

Run rate =

pmbug said:

Are the LBMA member bullion banks trying to paint the tape for the LBMA's end of the month vault stock report? Will we see a huge inflow on April 1 like we saw with end Jan-start Feb?

Click to expand...

Yes and Yes. I believe that is exactly what we will see.

Mar 28 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX250K

COMEX run rate~144d
SFE run rate (as of Mar 27)
SGE run rate ~50d (as of Mar 20)

Details

COMEX 3-26​

600K ozt (18.7t) in CNT

850K ozt (26.4t) from HSBC (600K), Loomis (250K)

1.1M ozt (35.6t) moved between [R] and [E] in Asahi (682K), Brinks (50K), Loomis (212K), StoneX (200K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 328.3M ozt (76M [R], 252.3M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 880K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76M / 528K = ~144 (working) days (~7 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 9,212
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 46,060,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 32,345,621

Withdrawals are currently ~70% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 250K ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down greatly and the run rate estimate grew by 39 days! The 5 day moving average is very low and will grow fast (shrinking the run rate estimate) once withdrawals pick up again.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose held at 0.42%

The volume of borrowing activity is again muted.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:
JPM:

3rd day this week that SLV reports zero activity with share gains/drains. Seems unlikely!

I'm curious to see what happened with the 1 month lease rate @KarelMercx

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

pmbug mentioned at 42:32

@MBAEconomics reached out to me Saturday night. He wanted some data to confirm a few things before his interview with Mario. I was able to assist him with the data and he told me he'd give me a shout out.

He gave me a second shout out at ~1:12:15

Mar 30 AM Silver Market​

SFE $79.70
SGE $79.04
Retail $73.40
MCX $71.73
Spot $71.01
Apr26 $70.69

1mo Lease Rate0.165%
Apr26 EFP spread -$0.06

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Last night, silver fell from ~$69.60 to ~$68, popped back to ~$70, and climbed to ~$71 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo dropped in another big move from 0.358% to 0.165% on Friday. This occurred as SLV reported zero activity and COMEX withdrawals have diminished. I expect this will reverse as April begins. I don't have access to the data to confirm, but I suspect leasing activity might historically wane around the end of every month.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:10: $71.01

Apr26 = -$0.06 vs -$0.27 Previous (spot @ 06:46 - $70.75)
May26 = +$0.06 vs +$0.05
Jun26 = +$0.17 vs +$0.31 (spot @ 07:08 - $71.05)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread shifted positive this morning but remains negative. I expect it will shift more negative as trading begins for the day/week today.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $81.55 (less 10% taxes = $73.40)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $77.30 (less 7.2% taxes = $71.73)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $76.01
MCX 'spot' : $74.88 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $79.04(no VAT)
SFE $79.70

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8.5
SFE premium to SGE @ $0.66

SFE Run Rate​

84K ozt (2.6t)

Remaining Vault Stock = 12,038,110 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 63K/day deposit

Run rate =

ICYMI:​

pmbug said:

@MBAEconomics reached out to me Saturday night. He wanted some data to confirm a few things before his interview with Mario. I was able to assist him with the data and he told me he'd give me a shout out.

He gave me a second shout out at ~1:12:15

Click to expand...

You received a mention from "No1" on substack for your analysis of a 'deep dive' on vault activity a couple days ago, too!

I don't recall seeing that one. Link?

Mar 31 AM Silver Market​

SFE $81.59
SGE $81.16
Retail $75.51
MCX $73.64
Spot $72.86
Apr26 $72.89 (3.5 hours old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.431%
Apr26 EFP spread -$0.23

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver drifted from ~$71 to ~$70 at the close, popped to ~$73+ at night, fell back to ~$72 and has climbed back to ~$73 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo popped from 0.165% to 0.431%. This occurred as SLV reported a large drain of vault stock! Are weak COMEX withdrawals and increased buying from India kicking in?

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:30: $72.86

Apr26 = -$0.23 vs -$0.06 Previous (spot @ 03:58 - $73.12)
May26 = +$0.39 vs +$0.06
Jun26 = +$0.66 vs +$0.17 (spot @ 07:28 - $73.05)

EFP Commentary​

Big divergence! Apr26 EFP spread shifted firmly negative while May26 and Jun26 shifted strongly positive. COMEX silver should flow to London with negative Apr26 EFP spread.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.90 (less 10% taxes = $75.51)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $79.35 (less 7.2% taxes = $73.64)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $78.17
MCX 'spot' : $75.77 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $81.16(no VAT)
SFE $81.59

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE premium to SGE @ $0.43

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 31 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV3.9M
COMEX708K
SFE185K
SGE317K

COMEX run rate~141d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~43d (as of Mar 27)

Details

COMEX 3-27​

deposit

708K ozt (22t) from CNT (103K), HSBC (605K)

moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 327.6M ozt (76M [R], 251.6M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 900K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76M / 540K = ~141 (working) days (~7 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 9,212
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 46,060,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 33,053,563.86

Withdrawals end up being ~72% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 708K ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up slightly and the run rate estimate shrunk by 3 days. The 5 day moving average is very low and should grow fast (shrinking the run rate estimate) once withdrawals pick up again.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.42%

Interactive Brokers has reported zero activity since Friday morning.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:4.3M shares
JPM:3.9M ozt (121.1t)

Silver spot rising again, SLV stock keeps draining. Today is the cutoff for the LBMA vault stock report. Are the APs squeezing SLV to paint the tape? If so, expect SLV to add back vault stock after today.

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. I'm not just copy/pasting the PSLV note. There is literally no activity happening.

SFE Run Rate​

185K ozt (5.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,852,920 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 18K/day deposit (barely above zero!)

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

317K ozt (9.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 9,344,293 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 1.1M/week

Run rate = 9.3M / 1.1M = ~9 weeks (~2 months)

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

Mar 23-27:
SGE silver vault - 9.9
SFE silver vault - 9.3
SLV London vault - 160.6
PSLV silver vault -
COMEX silver stock - 140
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

I forgot to post a report last week! Here's the totals for Mar 16-20:
SGE silver vault - 24.7
SFE silver vault - 35.9
SLV London vault - 118
PSLV silver vault -
COMEX silver stock - 233
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Mar 23-27 = 20
Mar 16-20 = 290.4
Mar 9-13 = 535.50003
Mar 2-6 = 705.191
Feb 23-27 = 214.42
Feb 16-20 = 764.27
...

SFE vault stock is now consistently posting small weekly inflows. SGE's vault stock drain has slowed, but it is still a net drain. The SGE's run rate at the current drain rate is about 2 months remaining. Import/export data shows that the LBMA (London) started exporting silver to Hong Kong in January. Maybe they ramped up the exports in March to help stem the SGE/SFE vault stock drain?

The COMEX's drain slowed down considerably last week. The Apr26 silver contract's EFP spread is firmly negative, so the COMEX drain might start picking up again.

SLV posted a large inflow on Monday (23rd) and it has been draining ever since. SLV's vault stock is once again approaching the sub-400M ozt threshold last seen in late November when spot price was around $54. When silver rose to ~$73 from there (circa Dec 23), SLV vault stock rose to ~433M. If SLV returned to that equilibrium today, it would need to add ~33M ozt (1,026t) of silver and that would put a serious hurt on the LBMA's liquid free float.

The SLV-1mo lease rate has diverged again, so I expect things are going to get interesting here in April.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

Apr 1 AM Silver Market​

SFE $85.65
SGE $84.48
Retail $77.70
MCX $75.37
Spot $74.50
Apr26 $73.90 (~2 hours old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.154%
Apr26 EFP spread -$0.64

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver rose from ~$73 to $75 at the close, and has bounced between $74 and $75 through the night/morning.

Lease rate​

1mo dropped from 0.431% to 0.154%. I'm guessing there is some odd end of the month dynamics with demand happening. SLV draining is feeding supply. COMEX withdrawals (and presumed exports) are waning which should be starving supply.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 06:10: $74.50

Apr26 = -$0.64 vs -$0.23 Previous (spot @ 03:56 - $74.54)
May26 = +$0.04 vs +$0.39
Jun26 = +$0.26 vs +$0.66 (spot @ 05:48 - $74.60)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread shifted strongly negative while May26 and Jun26 also shifted negatively. COMEX silver should flow to London with negative Apr26 EFP spread.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $86.33 (less 10% taxes = $77.70)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.22 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.37)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.05
MCX 'spot' : $79.67 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $84.48(no VAT)
SFE $85.65

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE @ $1.17

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 1 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV100K
SLV453K
COMEX231K
SFE1.5M

COMEX run rate~175d
SFE run rate ~31d
SGE run rate ~43d (as of Mar 27)

Details

COMEX 3-30​

231K ozt (7.2t) deposit mostly in HSBC



758K (23.59t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT (581K), Delaware (163K), Loomis (15K)

353K (11t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 327.8M ozt (76.4M [R], 251.4M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 726K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.4M / 436K = ~175 (working) days (~8.75 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 9,212
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 46,060,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 33,053,563.86

Withdrawals remain ~72% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 231K ozt deposit (no withdrawal!) brought the 5 day moving average down greatly and the run rate estimate grew by 34 days. Monday was the first day since Dec 31 last year that the COMEX reports zero withdrawals.

Monday's zero withdrawals corresponded with Apr26 EFP spread of nearly zero (as might be expected). Apr26 EFP spread has moved strongly negative, so withdrawals should pick up again.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.42%

Interactive Brokers still reports zero activity since Friday morning.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:500K shares
JPM:453K ozt (14.1t)

SLV posts yet another outflow, but this was relatively small. Spot price is rising. Are we near the end of the SLV draining?

PSLV​

208,790 units
100K ozt (3.1t)
Units/ozt ratio .3410

Signs of (schizophrenic) life! The last time PSLV posted an outflow was Feb 2. I guess the start of the month is when some units get redeemed for physical? Very odd to see an outflow of vault stock while units increased.

SFE Run Rate​

1.5M ozt (45.3t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 10,394,950 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 339K/day

Run rate = 10.4M / 339K = ~31 (working) days (~1.5 months)

Apr 2 AM Silver Market​

SGE $79.81 (>SFE!)
SFE $79.55
Retail $73.03
MCX $72.02
Spot $71.12
Apr26 $71.35 (~1 hour old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.117%
Apr26 EFP spread -$0.04

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened and closed ~$75, tumbled below $70 at night and recovered to ~$71 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo dropped from 0.154% to 0.117%. SLV + COMEX drains are both slowing down. If demand from India and China is real, the 1mo lease rate should start climbing again soon.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 05:56: $71.12

Apr26 = -$0.04 vs -$0.64 Previous (spot @ 04:46 - $71.39)
May26 = +$0.12 vs +$0.04
Jun26 = +$0.27 vs +$0.26 (spot @ 05:32 - $71.35)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads shifted positively. The Apr26 EFP spread seems to be very volatile presently - moving + or - $0.60 per day.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $81.14 (less 10% taxes = $73.03)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $77.61 (less 7.2% taxes = $72.02)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $76.42
MCX 'spot' : $76.12 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $79.81(no VAT)
SFE $79.55

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.26 (huge shift from +$1.17)

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 2 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV90K
COMEX161K
SFE478K

COMEX run rate~539d
SFE run rate~53d
SGE run rate ~43d (as of Mar 27)

Details

COMEX 3-31​

161K ozt (5t) from JPM

5K (0.2t) moved from [E] to [R] in StoneX

15K (0.5t) moved from [R] to [E] in MT&B

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 327.7M ozt (76.4M [R], 251.2M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 236K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.4M / 142K = ~539 (working) days (~27 months!)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 9,212
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 46,060,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 33,214,278.86

Final March withdrawals are ~72% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 161K ozt withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down greatly and the run rate estimate exploded by 364 (working) days (over a year)! The 5 day withdrawal average is the lowest it has been since I have been watching it. The LBMA is going to feel the pain if the COMEX stops the drain.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.42%

Borrowing activity has resumed!

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:100K shares
JPM:90K ozt (2.8t)

SLV posts another tiny outflow. Are we near the end of the SLV draining?

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Yesterday PSLV drained ozt while adding units, so the ozt/units ratio is low.

SFE Run Rate​

478K ozt (14.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 10,872,740 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 206K/day

Run rate = 10.9M / 206K = ~53 (working) days (~2.5 months)

End of March LBMA Silver Vault Stock Estimate (in metric tons):

Vault Stock = 27,682 (from 27,065)
Free Float (FF) = 7,281 (from 5,868)
Liquid (LFF) = 7,281 FF - 3421 illiquid = 3,861

At at spot price of $80/ozt, LFF = ~$9.9B

Details

The LBMA is due to report their end of March silver stock report on April 9 or April 10 (I'm not sure if the LBMA is closed for Good Friday). LBMA dinosaurs apparently need 5 business days to figure out their end of the month total vault stock and even with that time, their report is not always consistent with UK silver import/export data. I calculate my own forecast estimate to keep the LBMA honest.

As the LBMA vault stock reports have not been consistent with UK import/export data, I had been including my own 'realistic' estimate for the LBMA's vault stock using known data for comparison. Last month, the LBMA actually reported very close to, but less than my 'realistic' estimate which was surprising! I think the LBMA's end of February report has corrected their margin of error from my 'realistic' estimates, so this month I am just including one estimate based off of the LBMA's report for last month.

I think my new estimating formula worked pretty good at deriving a realistic ball park estimate. Now that we have another month of data to work with, I have updated the factors used in the formula.

Of special note - in January, the UK exported almost as much as it imported with the net import being just 26.6t. This lowered the "F" factor greatly. My estimate will be on the high side if net UK silver imports in March are closer to January (~2% of the total imports) than the 3 month average (~80% of the total imports) for the end of last year.

Formula (Updated Factors)

X = A - B + (((C * D) / E) * F)

X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (27,065) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (20,400) ETF vault stock (current)
C = (1,033.08) COMEX withdrawn for March
D = (0.6131from 0.65) Estimated % of COMEX Withdrawn that was exported to London
E = (0.6273 from 0.60) Estimated % of USA import vs total UK silver imports
F = (0.6107from 0.80) Estimated % of UK imports that are NET (accounting for exports)

In separating the Adjustments between new Warrants to Registered (dotted line) and Warrants to Eligible for Withdrawal (presuming that's what is happening with adjustments,) at first glance, one would think that the Adjustments to Eligible would equal out with Withdrawals over time.

Since that doesn't seem to be happening, then the shortfall between the two have to be made up with Deposits that can be Warranted (few are recorded that way) or to Warrant lots in Eligible just prior to Withdrawing unless Warranted ounces are just sitting (hiding-out) there.

They say the process of warranting is simple from a paperwork standpoint, but it would seem harder to get people to agree to the change of possession. Anyhow, feel free to correct any mistakes in logic or the chart, it represents the shortfall of Adjustments to Eligible compared to Vault Withdrawals with the over-adjustments and under-adjustments filled in.

I don't quite understand what your methodology is yet. Maybe if I get a window of time I'll figure it out.

Apr 3 AM Silver Market​

SFE $80.67
SGE $80.48
Retail $75.46
MCX $73.94
Spot $73.04
Apr26 $72.86

Apr26 EFP spread -$0.19

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened ~$70.50 and closed just under $73.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price : $73.04

Apr26 = -$0.19 vs -$0.04 Previous (spot @ 16:50 Apr 2 - $73.05)
May26 = +$0.13 vs +$0.12
Jun26 = +$0.34 vs +$0.27 (spot @ 16:40 Apr 2 - $72.99)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread shifted negatively. May26 and Jun26 EFP spreads shifted slightly positively.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.85 (less 10% taxes = $75.46)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $79.68 (less 7.2% taxes = $73.94)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $78.04
MCX 'spot' : $76.37 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $80.48(no VAT)
SFE $80.67

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE premium to SGE @ $0.19

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 3 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE19K

COMEX run rate~717d
SFE run rate~51d
SGE run rate ~43d (as of Mar 27)

Details

COMEX 4-1​

moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 327.7M ozt (76.4M [R], 251.2M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 178K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.4M / 107K = ~717 (working) days (~36 months!)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,297
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 6,485,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 0

April withdrawals are 0% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's zero withdrawal activity brought the 5 DMA down and the run rate estimate grew by another 178 (working) days! The LBMA is going to feel the pain if the COMEX stops the drain.

A CME report of zero activity is unusual, but not unprecedented. It happened a few times in August last year:

8/12/25 (Only 0.01 ozt adjusted out of CNT )
8/15/25
8/20/25
8/29/25 (Only 927K ozt adjusted from [E] to [R])

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.42%

Interactive Brokers reports no borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM: ozt

Was there no activity, or was activity just not reported?

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

19K ozt (0.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 10,891,840 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 212K/day

Run rate = 10.9M / 212K = ~51 (working) days (~2.5 months)

Apr 7 AM Silver Market​

SFE $81.20
SGE $80.80
Retail $74.44
MCX $72.60
Spot $72.30
Apr26 $72.16 (~1 hour old quote)

Apr26 EFP spread -$0.01

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver mostly bounced aruond between ~$73.50 and ~$72 - a fairly narrow range for historically volatile silver.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 08:36 : $72.30

Apr26 = -$0.01 vs -$0.19 Previous (spot @ 07:46 - $72.17)
May26 = +$0.04 vs +$0.13
Jun26 = +$0.39 vs +$0.34 (spot @ 08:30 - $72.36)

EFP Commentary​

LBMA did not trade yesterday. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads tightened up (near zero). Jun26 EFP spreadheld steady.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $82.71 (less 10% taxes = $74.44)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $78.23 (less 7.2% taxes = $72.60)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.27
MCX 'spot' : $77.21 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $80.80(no VAT)
SFE $81.20

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.40

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 7 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX470K
SFE436K

COMEX run rate~575d
SFE run rate~108d
SGE run rate ~43d (as of Mar 27)

Details

COMEX 4-2​

439K ozt (13.7t) in CNT

909K ozt (28.3t) from CNT (30K), HSBC (5K), Loomis (874K)

10K ozt (0.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 327.2M ozt (76.4M [R], 250.8M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 221K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.4M / 133K = ~575 (working) days (~29 months!)

COMEX Run Rate Comments​

For those concerned by the big swings in my run rate estimate:

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,435
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 7,175,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 908,841.90

April withdrawals are 13% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 470K net withdrawal activity brought the 5 DMA up and the run rate estimate shrunk by 142 (working) days! Big swings as the 5 DMA is tiny and little adjustments have big impacts.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.42%

Interactive Brokers reports very little borrowing activity.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM: ozt

Has there been no activity since April 1, or has activity just not been reported?

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

436K ozt (13.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,327,420 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 105K/day

Run rate = 11.3M / 105K = ~108 (working) days (~5.4 months)

Apr 8 AM Silver Market​

SFE $86.47
SGE $85.86
Retail $79.23
MCX $77.60
Spot $76.95
Apr26 $76.85 (~1 hour old quote)

1mo Lease Rate0.07%
Apr26 EFP spread -$0.02

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened ~$72, fell to ~$70, closed just under $73, popped to $76 at night and has drifted up to ~$77 this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo dropped from 0.351% to 0.07%. That's a huge move! 1mo lease rate is getting very volatile lately.

h/t @KarelMercx

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:18 : $76.95

Apr26 = -$0.02 vs -$0.01 Previous (spot @ 06:40 - $76.87)
May26 = +$0.12 vs +$0.04
Jun26 = +$0.49 vs +$0.39 (spot @ 06:56 - $76.83)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread holds firm at near zero while May26 & Jun26 EFP spreads shifted positively. Looks like the faucet to the COMEX->LBMA garden hose remains closed.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.04 (less 10% taxes = $79.23)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $83.62 (less 7.2% taxes = $77.60)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $82.79
MCX 'spot' : $82.12 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $85.86(no VAT)
SFE $86.47

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.61

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 8 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV221K
COMEX951K
SFE478K
SGE3.1M

COMEX run rate~476d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate~172d (as of Apr 3)

Details

COMEX 4-6​

882K ozt (27.4t) in MT&B

1.8M ozt (57t) from CNT (1.2M), Loomis (632K)

699K ozt (21.7t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 326.2M ozt (77.1M [R], 249.1M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 270K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.1M / 162K = ~476 (working) days (~24 months!)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,440
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 7,200,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 2,741,160.39

April withdrawals are 38% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 951K net withdrawal activity brought the 5 DMA up and the run rate estimate shrunk by 99 (working) days! Both deposits and withdrawals increased significantly Monday (when Apr EFP spread was firmly negative).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.42% to 0.36%

Interactive Brokers reports very little borrowing activity.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM:221K ozt (6.9t)

It's highly unusual for JPM to report a drain in the vault stock while Blackrock reports zero change in shares. I'm guessing the folks at Blackrock enjoyed an extended holday and just didn't report the corresponding drain.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

478K ozt (14.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,805,110 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 282K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

3.1M ozt (97.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 12,491,050 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 363K/week

Run rate = 12.5M / 363K = ~34 weeks (~8.5 months)

China (SFE/SGE) Commentary​

SFE has reported two days in a row of significant inflow. SGE reported a massive inflow for last week. Looks like the LBMA is delivering silver to China lately!

Apr 9 AM Silver Market​

SFE $82.87
SGE $82.44
Retail $76.26
MCX $74.85
Spot $74.48
Apr26 $74.49 (~20min old quote)

Apr26 EFP spread -$0.02 (again)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened ~$76.5, closed ~$74, and remains ~$74 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 08:12 : $74.48

Apr26 = -$0.02 vs -$0.02 Previous (spot @ 07:54 - $74.51)
May26 = +$0.08 vs +$0.12
Jun26 = +$0.30 vs +$0.49 (spot @ 08:00 - $74.70)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread held firm at near zero while May26 & Jun26 EFP spreads tightened. Looks like the faucet to the COMEX->LBMA garden hose remains closed.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $84.73 (less 10% taxes = $76.26)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.66 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.85)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.83
MCX 'spot' : $78.98 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $82.44(no VAT)
SFE $82.87

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.43

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 9 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2.2M
COMEX1.17M
SFE854K

COMEX run rate~140d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate~172d (as of Apr 3)

Details

COMEX 4-7​

40K ozt (1.2t) in CNT

1.2M ozt (37.5t) from Brinks (605K), Loomis (601K)

100K ozt (3.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (60K), Brinks (40K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 325M ozt (77M [R], 248M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 549K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77M / 549K = ~140 (working) days (~7 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,551
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 7,755,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 3,947,086.84

April withdrawals are ~51% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 1.17M net withdrawal brought the 5 DMA up significantly (as I had been anticipating) and the run rate estimate shrunk by 336 (working) days! Heavy withdrawal occurred while April EFP Spread was near zero!

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.36% to 0.31%

Interactive Brokers reports borrowing activity picking up slightly.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.4M shares
JPM:2.2M ozt (67.5t)

The previous day's vault stock outflow without a corresponding share drop remains a mystery. Now we see a significant inflow (as I expected). It seems like SLV vault stock drain is about as low as it can go presently.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

854K ozt (26.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 12,658,680 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 453K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Helicopter Musings

I've been posting morning reports on the silver market for a good while now incorporating just about every major public data point that is readily accessible. It's a lot of information and it seems like a lot of people are somewhat numb to reading through them as they don't generate as much response (likes or comments) as they used to.

For those that aren't reading the tea leaves in my morning reports, there are a couple of interesting things happening presently that may be portending big things for silver:

COMEX withdrawals have exceeded 1M ozt/day for the last two days as the April EFP spread has shrunk to near zero. Usually, 1M+ withdrawals occur with a negative EFP spread significant enough to give the bullion banks a profitable enough arbitrage to cover the logistical expenses with insuring and shipping silver to London. It looks like silver is flowing to London presently without a profit arb.

SLV appears to be near the bottom of the well as far as how much silver vault stock it can release to the LBMA/market. SLV vault stock is currently flirting with London vault stock around 400M ozt - levels last seen around the end of November when silver spot price was ~$56. Yesterday, SLV posted a significant 2M+ inflow - something I was largely anticipating since late March. It looks like SLV has provided the LBMA with all the free float cushion that it can for now. It seems likely that SLV is going to start pressuring LBMA free float now (as SLV recoups vault stock to regain balance with spot price).

SFE and SGE (China's silver futures and physical/spot markets) vault stock inventories both appear to have bottomed out and are posting inflows over the last few weeks. This in conjunction with customs import/export data showing that the UK (LBMA) started exporting silver to Hong Kong (indirect to China) again in January indicates to me that the LBMA is likely delivering silver to China presently.

Finally, silver lease rates are getting volatile with large daily swings lately. It looks to me like the LBMA market is getting a bit disorderly.

When I look at all of the issues with a helicopter view:

LBMA silver is flowing out to China and India. The LBMA cannot squeeze any more silver (blood) from the SLV (stone). The bullion banks are ramping up withdrawals from the COMEX even though the April EFP spread doesn't make it profitable to ship to London.

I can't help but think that we're at the beginning stages of the LBMA being stressed (again) and we're going to see evidence of it in the weeks to come.

Apr 10 AM Silver Market​

SFE $84.63 ($0.11 premium to SGE)
SGE $84.52 (~$8 premium to spot)
Retail $77.41
MCX $75.99 (premium to spot shrinking?)
Spot $75.94
Apr26 $75.85 (EFP spread -$0.06)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened ~$74.5, closed ~$75.5, and has drifted up to ~$76 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 08:30 : $75.94

Apr26 = -$0.06 vs -$0.02 Previous (spot @ 08:28 - $75.91)
May26 = +$0.27 vs +$0.08
Jun26 = +$0.38 vs +$0.30 (spot @ 08:16 - $75.77)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread slightly more negative while May26 & Jun26 EFP spreads more positive. Looks like the faucet to the COMEX->LBMA garden hose remains closed.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $86.02 (less 10% taxes = $77.41)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.88 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.99)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $81.06
MCX 'spot' : $80.35 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $84.52(no VAT)
SFE $84.63

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.11

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 10 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV725K
COMEX49K
SFE854K

COMEX run rate~252d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate~172d (as of Apr 3)

Details

COMEX 4-8​

299K ozt (9.3t) in Brinks

250K ozt (7.8t) from CNT

189K ozt (5.9t) moved from [R] to [E] in CNT

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 325.1M ozt (76.8M [R], 248.3M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 508K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.8M / 508K = ~252 (working) days (~13 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,552
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 7,760,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 4,197,246.44

April withdrawals are ~54% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 49K net deposit brought the 5 DMA down and the run rate estimate grew by 112 (working) days. Diminished withdrawals were expected as Apr26 EFP spread was near zero.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.31% to 0.38%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate borrowing activity.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:800K shares
JPM:725K ozt (22.5t)

SLV sheds about a third of the previous day's inflow.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

892K ozt (27.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 13,550,290 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 536K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Ever since the last "glitch" the big silver buyer/s on the Comex disappeared. What happened?