Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

There are a lot of interesting things in today's report(s):

Mar 17 AM Silver Market​

SGE $91.76
SFE $91.68
Retail $82.88
MCX $81.78
Spot $80.55
Mar26 $80.54 (~4.5 hours old)

1mo Lease Rate0.77%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.33

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver rose from ~$79 to ~$81, drifted down to ~$80 and then up to ~$82.50 during the night, and has drifted back down to $80+ this morning.

Lease rate​

1mo has bounced from 0.62% last Thu to 0.77% yesterday ( @KarelMercx for the data). COMEX drain slowed Mar9-Mar11 so that might explain the rise even though SLV is still draining aggressively.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:32: $80.55

Mar26 = -$0.33 vs -$0.32 Previous (spot @ 02:52: $80.87)
Apr26 = -$0.10 vs -$0.10 (spot @ 07:28: $80.61)
May26 = +$0.12 vs +$0.23

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads mostly held firm. Mar26 remains firmly negative. COMEX should continue to drain to the LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.09 (less 10% taxes = $82.88)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $88.13 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$81.78)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.24
MCX 'spot' : $85.55 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $91.76(no VAT)
SFE $91.68

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE "premium" to SGE @ -$0.12

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 17 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV3.35M
COMEX2.1M

COMEX run rate~99d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate ~32d

Details

COMEX 3-13​

6K ozt (0.2t) in Delaware

2.1M ozt (66.8t) from Asahi (856K), CNT (216K), JPM (647K), Loomis (303K) et al

10K ozt (0.3t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (5K) and Loomis (5K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 339.6M ozt (78.9M [R], 260.6M [E])

Net Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.34M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 78.9M / 805K = ~98 (working) days (~5 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,145
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 40,725,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 19,249,855.90

Withdrawals are currently ~47% of Mar26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 2.1M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and the run rate estimate grew by 9 days. I expect the 5 day moving avg will begin rising today and the run rate will begin shrinking with tomorrow's report.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee held at 0.40%

Interactive Brokers reported no activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.7M shares
JPM:3.35M ozt (104.2t)

SLV London stock lowest since Nov 21 (when spot was ~$51).

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

741K ozt (23t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 11,373,740.00 ozt

"Withdraw rate" through last 5 days = 608K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 8,868,783.00 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 1.4M/week

Run rate = 8.9M / 1.4M = ~6 weeks (~1.5 months)

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 96.1
SFE silver vault - 70.6
SLV London vault - 301.4
PSLV silver vault - 0.00003
COMEX silver stock - 208.6
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Mar 9-13 = 535.50003
Mar 2-6 = 705.191
Feb 23-27 = 214.42
Feb 16-20 = 764.27
Feb 9-13 = 720.8993
Feb 2-6 = 22.6
...


SFE vault stock turned a corner last week and began growing with a large inflow on Thursday and consistent inflows since then.

On the other hand, the SGE's vault stock drain has accelerated. The SGE's run rate at the current drain rate is less than 2 months remaining. SGE price is now greater than SFE price which is not normal and further indicates the seriousness of the low SGE vault stock.

It seems like the ~$12 SGE premium over LBMA spot still isn't sufficient to entice LBMA silver to flow to China (see below for more on this).

PSLV just posted a small 1 ozt adjustment last week. PSLV remains curiously quiet.

Last week the COMEX continued it's 2026 draining streak though the rate of drain slowed down a bit.

SLV's drain ramped up last Wednesday - almost like it was compensating the LBMA for a slower flow of COMEX silver. The 1mo silver lease rate got hammered below 1% in accordance with the SLV outflows. SLV's London vault stock was last this low back on November 21 - when silver spot was ~$51. One might think equilibrium point for SLV vault stock given a spot price at ~$81 (~60% higher) should probably be higher than it currently is.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

~~~

UK silver export to China/HK:

 

[Voodoo]

Nov 21st you say? NOICE. That was the low right before blastoff to $120.