Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

Yesterday (11-6) in silver

Yesterday silver spot bobbed up and down around the $48 mark throughout the day. Let's investigate what played out below the surface...

COMEX

COMEX silver stock report for Wednesday (COMEX reports activity for the previous working day) says a total 1.49M ozt (~46.4 metric tons) was withdrawn (half of that from the Asahi vault) while 1.5M ozt (46.7 metric tons) was deposited (almost all of it in the Loomis vault). There is a *lot* of silver moving in and out of the COMEX vaults, but you wouldn't know it if you only tracked the net change.

The Delaware vault staff is probably getting worried as they had to work twice as hard yesterday as the day before storing two LGD bars (1,948 ozt received) and removing four other LGD bars (4,010 ozt withdrawn). I wonder if they bothered with the forklift.

The vaults moved a tiny 127K ozt (~4 metric tons) from registered to eligible. The drain on registered stock would appear to be dwindling after Monday's massive 6.2M ozt move.

The EFP spread remains in negative territory, though it appears to be normalizing towards zero (~ -$0.16 this morning, it was ~ -$0.22 yesterday). Will COMEX withdrawals slow down as the EFP heads to zero?

SLV

My "canary in the silver mine" had another quiet day yesterday. SLV shares available to borrow hovered around 850K to 1M most of the day. The borrow fee dropped early in the morning and then rose slightly throughout before settling at 1.65% for the day. It's come back down ever so slightly to 1.64% overnight as the available shares have decreased to 650K.

Blackrock reported another decrease of 1.3M shares and JPM reported an outflow of 1.2M ozt (38 metric tons) to the vault stock. SLV has shed vault stock for three days in a row now and each successive day, the daily outflow has gotten larger.

PSLV

PSLV was again quiet with zero ozt added the vault stock and zero units added to the trust. This is the 12th consecutive day with no material change to the PSLV vault stock.

 

[pmbug]

Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #215 for last month):

Global Vault Stock - October 2025​

Market​	This month​	Last month​	Difference​
LBMA (total)	26,255​	24,581​	1,674​
London vaulted ETFs*	20,450​	21,152​	-702​
LBMA-ETFs (free float)*	5,805​	3,419​	2,386​
COMEX	15,002.46​	16,509.29​	-1,506.83​
SLV NYC Vault	3,209.14​	3,209.14​	0.00​
COMEX-SLV (free float)	11,793.32​	13,300.15​	-1,506.83​
SFE/SGE	1,495.854​	2,406.613​	-911.613​
PSLV	6,345.231​	6,216.872​	128.359​

If these numbers are to be believed, the West has roughly 17,598.32 metric tons vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. That's an increase of 869.17 tonnes over last month's report! At face value, that does *not* make sense. Even considering the ETF losses of ~702 tonnes, it stretches the boundaries of belief that the LBMA increased free float during a period of record high demand from India.

Total global free float including China (SFE/SGE) is 19,094.174 metric tons (a decrease of just 41.589 tonnes). PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in free float totals - I include it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.

In the month of October, the COMEX and SLV shed a massive amount of inventory back to the LBMA trying to refill their silver ocean. It is difficult to reconcile the LBMA free float purportedly growing by 2,386 tonnes while the COMEX+SLV/ETFs+SFE/SGE drained 3,120 tonnes. If we use some conservative estimates (90% of COMEX, 100% of ETFs and 70% of SFE/SGE) for silver withdrawals that went to London, that would come out to ~2,696.27 tonnes meaning only ~310 tonnes left the LBMA in October while India reported record demand (and they aren't the only ones buying LBMA silver).

As a reminder, news reports indicated that India was on pace to acquire/import around 1,000 tonnes of silver in October. JPM reportedly told India that they would have to wait until November to receive silver they had purchased in the LBMA markets. The only way these numbers make any sense to me is if JPM indeed held off on those deliveries until after the LBMA compiled their end of October report (ie. the LBMA is reporting silver that is encumbered/owed to India). This would seem to be corroborated by the backwardation in Indian silver futures indicating high demand for immediate delivery physical silver.

I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations.

These figures provide an important insight into London's ability to underpin the physical OTC market.

I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.


India silver projections


JPM told India it would have to wait until November


Indian futures in backwardation


Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:

COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.

 

[Ttazzman]

Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #215 for last month):

Global Vault Stock - October 2025​

Market​	This month​	Last month​	Difference​
LBMA (total)	26,255​	24,581​	1,674​
London vaulted ETFs*	20,450​	21,152​	-702​
LBMA-ETFs (free float)*	5,805​	3,419​	2,386​
COMEX	15,002.46​	16,509.29​	-1,506.83​
SLV NYC Vault	3,209.14​	3,209.14​	0.00​
COMEX-SLV (free float)	11,793.32​	13,300.15​	-1,506.83​
SFE/SGE	1,495.854​	2,406.613​	-911.613​
PSLV	6,345.231​	6,216.872​	128.359​

If these numbers are to be believed, the West has roughly 17,598.32 metric tons vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. That's an increase of 869.17 tonnes over last month's report! At face value, that does *not* make sense. Even considering the ETF losses of ~702 tonnes, it stretches the boundaries of belief that the LBMA increased free float during a period of record high demand from India.

Total global free float including China (SFE/SGE) is 19,094.174 metric tons (a decrease of just 41.589 tonnes). PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in free float totals - I include it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.

In the month of October, the COMEX and SLV shed a massive amount of inventory back to the LBMA trying to refill their silver ocean. It is difficult to reconcile the LBMA free float purportedly growing by 2,386 tonnes while the COMEX+SLV/ETFs+SFE/SGE drained 3,120 tonnes. If we use some conservative estimates (90% of COMEX, 100% of ETFs and 70% of SFE/SGE) for silver withdrawals that went to London, that would come out to ~2,696.27 tonnes meaning only ~310 tonnes left the LBMA in October while India reported record demand (and they aren't the only ones buying LBMA silver).

As a reminder, news reports indicated that India was on pace to acquire/import around 1,000 tonnes of silver in October. JPM reportedly told India that they would have to wait until November to receive silver they had purchased in the LBMA markets. The only way these numbers make any sense to me is if JPM indeed held off on those deliveries until after the LBMA compiled their end of October report (ie. the LBMA is reporting silver that is encumbered/owed to India). This would seem to be corroborated by the backwardation in Indian silver futures indicating high demand for immediate delivery physical silver.

I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations.



I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.


India silver projections


JPM told India it would have to wait until November


Indian futures in backwardation


Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:

COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.

you did get a specific mention on salivate metals youtube channel today

 

[pmbug]

you did get a specific mention on salivate metals youtube channel today

Thanks for letting me know. He recently started following me on X, but has not interacted with me (yet?).