Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

The manipulations to the paper silver market should be coming to an end shortly. CME margin raise yesterday didn't make a dent in the EFP spreads yesterday. Maybe they take effect Monday - we'll see. The short interest manipulations in China on the SFE were flagged and halted by the exchange (regulators). Meanwhile, lease rates are rising again in London signalling inventory is tight again. The physical market is about to impose it's will on the paper markets. $.02

 

[Viking]

Wholesale premiums have just jumped $2 to $3 to now $4 this morning

 

[Voodoo]

It's weird, its the big stuff that seems to be gone first. SD is out of Kilo silver bars. Apmex has a couple at like $10 over spot. Even 100 oz bars are at like $10 over spot. Meanwhile 90% can be had under spot.

Absolutely this is industrial demand, that is what I see from those numbers.

 

[Bottom Feeder]

Still, I get offered $4 under spot for my 100 Toz bar I tried to flog at our most recent coin show (yesterday).

 

[Voodoo]

Well that is a ~$14 spread on 100oz bar. At ~$90ish that is around 15%. I'd say that's ok considering the recent volatility and uncertainty, esp with the refiners.

 

[pmbug]

Monday morning in silver

Silver drifted up to ~$82 before dropping to $80 this morning. Let's look below the surface (a thread)

EFP spreads​

Current spot price: $80.01

Feb26* = +$1.06 vs -$0.41 Saturday
Mar26 = -$0.33 vs -$0.20
Apr26 = +$0.45 vs +$0.23
*data is 4 hours old

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 data isn't real time nor useful. Mar26 shifted more negative, Apr26 shifted more positive. End of Friday CME margin hike effective today. Might need to check the Feb26 EFP spread again later....

China ​

SGE $87.88 (no VAT)
SFE $93.68

SGE premium to LBMA spot ~$7

SFE 1M ozt (31.4t)

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $93.55 (less 10% taxes = $84.19)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $90.01 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$83.53)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $87.41

China > India > LBMA/COMEX

Big ​

SFE ($93.68)
SGE ($87.88)
Retail ($84.19)
MCX ($83.53)
spot ($80.01)
COMEX Mar26 ($79.68)

ICYMI:​

 

[Voodoo]

Woa, you glossed over the EFP spreads and kinda missed the big picture. Is that accurate? That would mean the US is in backwardation.

Ok, it looks like the most active contracts are not in backwardation.

 

[pmbug]

Feb26 data was too old to draw any meaningful conclusions/analysis.

 

[pmbug]

Checking right now... with spot @ $82.19, Marketwatch is reporting Feb26 contract 18 minutes behind now (better than 4 hours behind, but still a bit too skewed for meaningful analysis):

Futures:
Feb26 = $80.87
Mar26 = $81.52
Apr26 = $81.67

EFP spreads:
Feb26 = -$1.32
Mar26 = -$0.67
Apr26 = -$0.52

 

[68camaro]

Checking right now... with spot @ $82.19, Marketwatch is reporting Feb26 contract 18 minutes behind now (better than 4 hours behind, but still a bit too skewed for meaningful analysis):

Futures:
Feb26 = $80.87
Mar26 = $81.52
Apr26 = $81.67

EFP spreads:
Feb26 = -$1.32
Mar26 = -$0.67
Apr26 = -$0.52

They seem to be closing up further since you posted this.