For the month of June, USA customs reported exporting ~24 metric tons of silver to the UK. For that same month, UK customs reported importing ~128 metric tons of silver from the USA. There is a ~100 metric ton difference in the two nations reports for silver flowing from the USA to the UK.
That's a big discrepancy, but it's actually not unusual. Looking back over the monthly data for the last year, the range of discrepancy spans from -330 metric tons to +176 metric tons with an absolute magnitude greater than 100 metric tons six times out of eleven (from Aug 2025 through June 2026):
Is such a large discrepancy in the data indicative of malfeasance or reporting errors? It's an open question, but when considering it, there are some important things that should be kept in mind.
Nick Laird at https://www.goldchartsrus.com/ (@goldfishcharts on X) does a great job capturing UK and USA (and other nations too) customs data and translating it into metric tonnage. Translating because no nation actually reports silver imports or exports by weight. They report on the financial value of the cargo at the time it is processed through customs. Additionally, customs data is not granular - it is not reported day by day. Nick is capturing monthly totals only and dividing by the average price for the month (calculated from average daily prices in local currency that is then translated to dollars at that day's exchange rate). Immediately we can identify several variables that could potentially skew the reporting from departure to arrival:
Beyond those obvious issues, there are a few more subtle ones that were highlighted by Grok when I was doing some research on this topic:
There are so many mysteries in the murky silver market. We are constantly dealing with incomplete information. Customs import/export data a measure of the flow of physical silver between countries provides important context and insight into the vault stock reporting from major exchanges (like the COMEX and LBMA). Unfortunately, this data is about as clear as mud.
That's a big discrepancy, but it's actually not unusual. Looking back over the monthly data for the last year, the range of discrepancy spans from -330 metric tons to +176 metric tons with an absolute magnitude greater than 100 metric tons six times out of eleven (from Aug 2025 through June 2026):
Is such a large discrepancy in the data indicative of malfeasance or reporting errors? It's an open question, but when considering it, there are some important things that should be kept in mind.
Base Data Interpolation
Nick Laird at https://www.goldchartsrus.com/ (@goldfishcharts on X) does a great job capturing UK and USA (and other nations too) customs data and translating it into metric tonnage. Translating because no nation actually reports silver imports or exports by weight. They report on the financial value of the cargo at the time it is processed through customs. Additionally, customs data is not granular - it is not reported day by day. Nick is capturing monthly totals only and dividing by the average price for the month (calculated from average daily prices in local currency that is then translated to dollars at that day's exchange rate). Immediately we can identify several variables that could potentially skew the reporting from departure to arrival:
- LBMA spot price - Silver price can be volatile at times and the price can potentially fluctuate greatly in the 10-18 day port to port time frame it typically takes a boat to transport it across the Atlantic.
- Shipments are likely non-linear/non-uniform - The average price of silver when the bulk of shipments depart or arrive could be higher or lower than the monthly average price if shipments are concentrated on days when the price of silver is far from the monthly average price.
- Valuation methods differ - USA uses Free Alongside Ship (FAS) basis for exports which includes the transaction price plus US inland freight/insurance to the US port of export, but excludes international ocean/air freight, insurance beyond the port, and loading costs. The UK uses CIF basis for imports which includes transaction price plus international freight, insurance, and other charges to the UK port of entry. I don't have a firm handle on the net difference, but my pulled from the ether gut estimate is that UK import data might be ~10% higher all else being equal accounting for the extra indirects that the USA exports are ignoring (insurance is a big and scalable (not fixed) cost factor).
Additional Considerations
Beyond those obvious issues, there are a few more subtle ones that were highlighted by Grok when I was doing some research on this topic:
- Cross month timing lag - Shipments might export from the USA late in the month and arrive in the UK early in the next month.
- Partner Country Attribution - Exports are assigned based on the known destination, while imports use country of origin or dispatch. Incomplete data (e.g., on origin) can lead to misattribution, especially if goods are re-exported via third countries. I'm sure no mistakes are ever made though.
Conclusion
There are so many mysteries in the murky silver market. We are constantly dealing with incomplete information. Customs import/export data a measure of the flow of physical silver between countries provides important context and insight into the vault stock reporting from major exchanges (like the COMEX and LBMA). Unfortunately, this data is about as clear as mud.