Silver Market 260522

May 22 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $85.57
SGE Spot $85.29 (~$9 LBMA Spot)
IBJA PM Spot $77.79 (~$2 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $75.91
COMEX May26 Futures $76.87 (May 21 ~2pm - EFP spread $0)
MCX Futures $75.25 (~$2.50 IBJA PM Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened under ~$75, rose through the trading day and closed ~$76.50. It has drifted lower overnight and this morning to just under $76.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:32 : $75.91

May26 = $0 vs -$0.15 Previously (spot @ 13:40 May 21 : $76.87)
Jun26 = +$0.12 vs +$0.02 (spot @ 06:30 : $75.92)
Jul26 = +$0.33 vs +$0.22

EFP Commentary​

May26 EFP spread was exactly zero at its last quote. It's zero arb day. Jun & Jul EFP spreads shift slightly more positive.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $93.90 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $76.57)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $89.80 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $75.25)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.42
IBJA PM spot : $86.43 (less 10% BCD duty = $77.79)

MMTP-PAMP (retail proxy) and MCX futures are less than IBJA spot when adjusting for import duties and taxes.

China ​

SGE $85.29(no VAT)
SFE $85.57

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE premium to SGE = $0.28

SFE now at a discount to SGE.


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May 22 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV316K
COMEX1.2M
SFE93K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~33% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate1,740d
COMEX [E] run rate1,481d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 15)

COMEX 5-20​

ozt

1.2M ozt (37.6t) from CNT (607K), Loomis (601K)

20K ozt (0.6t) moved from [E] to [R] in MT&B

70 ozt (0.002t) adjusted into existence in JPM

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 314.6M ozt (81.7M [R], 233M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 90K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 81.7M / 47K = ~1,740 (working) days(~87 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (233M - 82.2M) / 90K = ~1,671 (working) days (~83.5 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (233M / 2) / 90K = ~1,291 (working) days (~64.5 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 1,481 (working) days (~74 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,681
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 28,405,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 9,332,308.66

May withdrawals are now ~33% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 1.2M ozt net withdrawal flipped the 5 DMA deposit rate back to a 5 DMA withdrawal rate. The 5 DMA withdrawal rate should climb quickly if the COMEX continues to report net withdrawals.

Wednesday's withdrawal occurred on a day where the May26 contract's EFP spread was near zero (slightly positive). Ie. there was no arbitrage profit to be made delivering silver to London.

The May26 EFP spread turned negative yesterday, so it is possible that COMEX silver withdrawals pick up again.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.41% to 0.39%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:350K shares
JPM:316K ozt (9.8t)

After two days of no activity, SLV reports a tiny drain.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34112

PSLV going back to sleep I guess...

SFE Run Rate​

93K ozt (2.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,726,070 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 570K/day deposit!

Run rate =

The 5 DMA deposit rate continues to shrink this week. Is the LBMA curtailing silver deliveries to China?

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260521.8943/