Silver Market 260527

May 27 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $83.73
SGE Spot $83.50 (~$8 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $74.45
COMEX Jun26 Futures $74.44 (EFP spread -$0.01)
MCX Futures $74.43
IBJA PM Spot $72.05 (~$2.50 LBMA Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$76, tread water most of the day, then rose to just under ~$77 at the close, bobbed around a bit at night before crashing down to ~$75 for a while and then crashed down further to ~$74 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:06 : $74.45

Jun26 = -$0.01 vs +$0.08 Previously
Jul26 = +$0.25 vs +$0.31
Aug26 = +$0.62 (spot @ 02:54 : $75.22)

EFP Commentary​

May26 contract is off the board. Jun26 EFP spread flips negative (barely).

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.26 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $75.24)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $87.57 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $74.43)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.17
IBJA PM spot : $84.77 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $72.05)

I double checked my tax+duty calculations this morning with Grok and Grok says I was slightly off on the MCX futures and IBJA spot, so I've adjusted them this morning.

China ​

SGE $83.50(no VAT)
SFE $83.73

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.23

~~~

May 27 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.2M
COMEX659K
SFE145K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~42% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate1,185d
COMEX [E] run rate1,051d
SFE run rate 4,963d
SGE run rate (as of May 22)

COMEX 5-22​

1.9M ozt (58.2t) in Asahi (1.2M), MT&B (660K), StoneX (10K [R])

1.2M ozt (37.7t) from Brinks

moved between [E] and [R]

11.8 ozt (0.0004t) adjusted out of existence in JPM

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 314.5M ozt (81.7M [R], 232.8M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 127K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 81.7M / 66K = ~1,236 (working) days(~62 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (232.8M - 82.2M) / 127K = ~1,185 (working) days (~59 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (232.8M / 2) / 127K = ~916 (working) days (~46 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 1,051 (working) days(~52.5 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,686
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 28,430,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 11,944,827.43

May withdrawals are now ~42% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 659K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate significantly. It was the largest one day deposit since October 15!

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.38%

Interactive Brokers zero borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.3M shares
JPM:1.2M ozt (36.6t)

SLV sheds all of the Friday's gain. London vault stock drops to ~405.8M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34112

PSLV being quiet like a ninja (again).

SFE Run Rate​

145K ozt (4.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,949,030 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 6K/day

Run rate = 31.9M / 6K = ~4,963 (working) days (~248 months)

As expected, SFE's 5 DMA deposit rate flipped to a net withdrawal even with a net deposit for today as a much larger deposit rolled out of the five day window. The net withdrawal rate is almost zero, so it could easily flip back to a net deposit rate tomorrow.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260526.8956/