Silver Market 260528

May 28 AM Silver Market​

SGE Spot $81.76 (~$9 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $81.61 ($0.15 SGE)
LBMA Spot $73.35
COMEX Jun26 Futures $73.31 (EFP spread -$0.12)
MCX Futures $74.45 (Holiday)
IBJA PM Spot (Holiday)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$74, closed ~$74.50, crashing down to ~$72 over night and has recoverd above $73 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:36 : $73.35

Jun26 = -$0.12 vs -$0.01 Previously (spot @ 03:16 : $73.43)
Jul26 = +$0.25 vs +$0.25
Aug26 = +$0.41 vs +$0.62 (spot @ 06:28 : $73.51)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread goes more firmly negative.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $90.41 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $73.73)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $87.59 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $74.45)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.14
IBJA PM spot : Holiday

China ​

SGE $81.76(no VAT)
SFE $81.61

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.15

~~~

May 28 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX1.2M
SFE186K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~37% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate4,679d
COMEX [E] run rate4,090d
SFE run rate 2,844d
SGE run rate (as of May 22)

COMEX 5-26​

1.2M ozt (37.4t) in Asahi

2K ozt (0.06t) from Delaware

269K ozt (8.4t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (49K), Brinks (15K), CNT (5K), IDS of Delaware (5K), Malca-Amit USA (48K), MT&B (36K), StoneX (110K)

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.7M ozt (81.4M [R], 234.3M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 33K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 81.4M / 17K = ~4,679 (working) days(~234 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (234.3M - 82.2M) / 33K = ~4,545 (working) days (~227 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (234.3M / 2) / 33K = ~3,500 (working) days (~175 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 4,090 (working) days(~204.5 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 6,413
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 32,065,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 11,946,844.93

May withdrawals are now ~37% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 1.2M ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate significantly. That's two days in a row with large deposits, but Tuesday did not have a matching large withdrawal.

Silver was adjusted from [R] to [E] in some vaults that rarely report any activity (IDS of Delaware, Malca-Amit USA).

727 of May's 6,413 delivery notices (more than 11%) were posted yesterday on May 27. lol.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee grows from 0.38% to 0.45%

Interactive Brokers minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:ozt

SLV reports no activity yesterday. Seems unlikely. *Not* counting Monday (Labor Day holiday), SLV has reported zero activity in 3 of the last 6 working days.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34112

PSLV being quiet like a ninja (again).

SFE Run Rate​

186K ozt (5.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,763,360 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 11K/day

Run rate = 31.8M / 11K = ~2,844 (working) days(~142 months)

With a moderate outflow this morning, SFE's 5 DMA deposit rate doubled from yesterday.

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260527.8957/

^^ Report updated with China data