Silver Market 260617

Jun 17 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $77.60
SGE Spot $77.18 (~$7.40 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $70.84
LBMA Spot $69.87
COMEX Jun26 Futures $69.90 ($0.15 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
IBJA Spot $69.29 (~$0.60 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened just over $70 and closed just under $70, and remains just under $70 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:26 : $69.87

Jun26 = -$0.15 vs -$0.53 Previously (spot @ 17:00 Jun 16 : $70.05)
Jul26 = +$0.06 vs +$0.07
Aug26 = +$0.37 vs +$0.34 (spot @ 05:28 : $70.02)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread contracts but remains negative. It should still provide a sufficient arbitrage profit for sending silver to London. Will COMEX withdrawals pick up to take advantage?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.24 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $71.96)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $83.35 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $70.84)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $82.13
IBJA PM spot : $81.51 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $69.29)

China ​

SGE $77.18(no VAT)
SFE $77.60

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7.40
SFE premium to SGE = $0.42 (from $0.25)

~~~

Jun 17 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX1.2M
SFE537K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~25.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 65d (from 71d)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 12)

COMEX 6-15​

1.8M ozt (56.1t) in Asahi (535K), CNT (669K [R]), Loomis (599K)

600K ozt (18.7t) from JPM

416K ozt (12.9t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 321.2M ozt (86.3M [R], 234.9M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 360K/day DEPOSIT (from 229K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,395
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 11,975,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 3,054,624.95

Jun withdrawals are currently ~25.5% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 1.2M ozt net deposit grew the 5 DMA deposit rate significantly as a 550K ozt net deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Mid way through June and average daily withdrawals (~277K ozt/day) are just under half of the average daily deposits (~638K ozt/day). Last month was the first to finish with deposits > withdrawals since I started tracking back in October last year, but it was really close to being even. So far, June is on track for a more lopsided net deposit.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee bounced around a bit but settled back at 0.44%

Interactive Brokers reports some moderate activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.904696 (=from 0.904696)

Was there actually zero activity, or did they just fail to report any?

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

537K ozt (16.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,380,190 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 416K/day (from 393K/day)

Run rate = 27.4M / 416K = ~65 (working) days(~3.3 months)

A 537K outflow replaces a 421K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows slightly.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260616.9035/