Silver Market 260702

Jul 2 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $67.11
SGE Spot $66.65 ($7.04 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $66.31
IBJA Spot $64.87 (~$5 LBMA Spot)
COMEX Jul26 Futures $60.02 ($0.01 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
LBMA Spot $59.83

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened just below $59, dropped, popped, dropped again and closed ~$59. It has bounced between $59 and $60.50 over night and sits around ~$59.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:48 : $59.83

Jul26 = +$0.01 vs -$0.07 Previously (spot @ 05:40 : $60.01)
Aug26 = +$0.24 vs +$0.14 (spot @ 06:22 : $59.88)
Sep26 = +$0.48 vs +$0.43

EFP Commentary​

Jul26 EFP spread stays close to zero, but flips slightly positive.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $80.03 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.57)
MCX Aug26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $76.25 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $66.31)
MCX Sep26 [SILVER 30kg] : $75.31
IBJA PM spot : $74.60 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.87)

China ​

SGE $66.65(no VAT)
SFE $67.11

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $7.04 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $0.46

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Jul 2 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE167K

COMEX withdrawals finish the month at ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA [R] run rate ~3,505d (from 3,123d)
COMEX 5 DMA [E] run rate ~2,598d (from 2,330d)
SFE 5 DMA run rate 199d (from 139)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 26)

COMEX 6-30​

ozt

ozt

406K ozt (12.6t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi

26 ozt (0.0008t) adjusted out of existence in Asahi

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 322.5M ozt (93M [R], 229.5M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 51K/day (from 57K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate = 93M / 27K = ~3,505 (working) days (~175 months) (from 3,123d)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (229.5M - 79.2M) / 51K = ~2,946 (working) days (~147 months) (from 2,644d)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (229.5M / 2) / 51K = ~2,249 (working) days (~112 months) (from 2,016d)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 2,598 (working) days (~130 months) (from 2,330d)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,594
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,970,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 5,321,508.67

Jun withdrawals finish the month at ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 0 ozt net change replaces a 30K net withdrawal in the 5 DMA net withdrawal window and the rate shrinks slightly.

The Jun26 contract deliveries are finish the month at almost the same percentage as May (41% versus 39.9%).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee drops from 0.47% to 0.46%

Interactive Brokers reports heavy activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.904697 (=from 0.904697)

No activity reported.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

167K ozt (5.2t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 26,617,670 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 134K/day (from 190K)

Run rate = 26.6M / 134K = ~199 (working) days (~10 months) (from 139)

A 167K net inflow replaces a 117K net outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks significantly.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260701.9077/