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ancona

Praying Mantis
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I called my LCS this morning at around 10:00 and asked him what he had in stock. "Almost nothing" was his response. In addition, he told me that there would be no ASE's for the near future and probably no rounds in any large quantities for a while. I put my name on his call list and said I wanted to order two hundred rounds when he has them. With silver on sale like this, i'm reminded of lat '08 and early '09 and the big push down to ten bucks or so. I would love to pick up a couple thousand rounds at 10 to 18 bucks.:silver:
 
Personally, I am nibbling here a chunk, but really sharpening my knives expecting it to go even lower now.. I think we might be fast approaching panic levels, when we might get the final overshoot to the downside, when various folks press the panic buttons. I'd fully expect gold to go below production costs for a while (as discussed here, at around $1200-$1300 all in), before I'll start buying aggressively). I don't wan't to be out of dry powder, shall that happen.

Although it is already a very good buying opportunity, I believe, given the fundamentals, negative sentiment and various analyses, for example here. $1250-$1300 zone is according to them, a great buying opportunity.

from there, one picture, worth thousand words:
Chart%20of%20GLD%20040313.gif
 
Ten dollar silver is a gift from Heaven boys. It will never stay that low, and as soon as all physical stocks disappear, the PTB will be given no choice but to unleash the Kraken. I sure would like to recover some of the mega cash I had to spend a few years back.
 
Yup, I'm thinking it's time to buy more here, at least a little. Of course, when the local shoeshine boy starts in - it might be a bad sign. Hope I don't qualify for the shoe shine biz.
 
I think we are heading towards a place with no hope for PMs, at which time I will really spread my arms wide, and load up to the planned % of my portfolio (which will be 50% - I know it is higher than many respectable investors suggest as prudent - around 20%, but that's what I feel in my piss would be comfortable for me).

I mean, we are at the break even spot prices, for 90% of miners, all costs of sustained production counted. It cannot possibly last
 
I think we are heading towards a place with no hope for PMs, at which time I will really spread my arms wide, and load up to the planned % of my portfolio (which will be 50% - I know it is higher than many respectable investors suggest as prudent - around 20%, but that's what I feel in my piss would be comfortable for me).

I mean, we are at the break even spot prices, for 90% of miners, all costs of sustained production counted. It cannot possibly last

I couldn't make that kind of allocation although I agree it's starting to look like a buying opportunity. Deflation is still a risk maybe? Nobody really expects it but we are in uncharted territory with the ETF dumping gold. Seems like China could be a wild card good or bad. What's up with their banks right now? There is a poker term here I am struggling to remember about drawing a card....
 
Yup, I'm thinking it's time to buy more here, at least a little. Of course, when the local shoeshine boy starts in - it might be a bad sign. Hope I don't qualify for the shoe shine biz.

No worries yet DC; the shoe shine boy is still SELLING his gold and silver to the Cash-4-Gold shops.
 
Ten dollar silver is a gift from Heaven boys. It will never stay that low, and as soon as all physical stocks disappear, the PTB will be given no choice but to unleash the Kraken. I sure would like to recover some of the mega cash I had to spend a few years back.

spent all day trying to figure out what you meant. (I'm not the sharpest tool, etc.) getting 40 oz more tonight...
 
Looks like we finally hit that $19 target we have been talking about for years. With all of the support at this level, it is not likely to go lower for years, if ever. What I see now is a trading range from 19 to 26 for months, or maybe even years, though years is unlikely with Bernie in charge.

Once Joe Blow realizes that this is the new normal, supplies should open up and premiums come down. Hope everyone has lots of dry powder.
 
hi mmerlin,

TA 101 question: how do you determine:
all of the support at this level, it is not likely to go lower for years, if ever

...the support level @19? Where is that coming from, and (preferably), what is the rationale behind this p[articular piece of TA?

Thanks in advance for enlightening a noob!
 
Looks like we finally hit that $19 target we have been talking about for years. With all of the support at this level, it is not likely to go lower for years, if ever. What I see now is a trading range from 19 to 26 for months, or maybe even years, though years is unlikely with Bernie in charge.

Once Joe Blow realizes that this is the new normal, supplies should open up and premiums come down. Hope everyone has lots of dry powder.

I am sitting here watching silver PLUMMET, 18.85 now. Arrrgghhh and just spent all my pennies...

18.79

18.77

18.74

18.71

I'm going to bed.
 
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I think it might be a mistake to think of PM's as an investment and watch the price fluctuations unless you like to go to casinos and have large amounts of money that you are able to bet, or get to manage other peoples money. This is more like insurance. You hope you're never going to need it but you still want to have some of it. Not alot. Just enough.
 
I think it might be a mistake to think of PM's as an investment and watch the price fluctuations unless you like to go to casinos and have large amounts of money that you are able to bet, or get to manage other peoples money. This is more like insurance. You hope you're never going to need it but you still want to have some of it. Not alot. Just enough.

I disagree.

Yes I like PM's as insurance.

But when I looked around for investments, I stumbled on something that's
1. price had been artificially suppressed while the price of most other things has been artificially propped up or inflated.
2. The public is guaranteed to flock to when the everything else that's been inflated or propped up gives way.

I don't think you could find a better investment.

If it's paper price was a reflection of physical demand, (which is how all things are eventually priced - supply and demand.) it would have an almost parabolic upward trajectory.

The fact that it's paper price is plummeting and the fact that you can actually buy physical near that price, only gives the illusion that it hasn't been a great investment in the short term. Don't be fooled because unless they've perfected alchemy, the supply side will run (& already has been running) into big problems.

While I wish I'd kept more powder dry for the mother of all sales. It also doesn't effect me because I'm not planning on selling till the fiat ponzi collapses or is inflated away.
 
I think it might be a mistake to think of PM's as an investment and watch the price fluctuations unless you like to go to casinos and have large amounts of money that you are able to bet, or get to manage other peoples money. This is more like insurance. You hope you're never going to need it but you still want to have some of it. Not alot. Just enough.

I'm with U, but I'm not considering it an investment. I'm sad I don't have any more money to buy during this sale! But I DO want a lot, and I'm big time against gambling, but not from a moral point of view. I hate to lose my money. Can you imagine what is going to happen to the price of silver when everyone catches on?
 
I'm with U, but I'm not considering it an investment. I'm sad I don't have any more money to buy during this sale! But I DO want a lot, and I'm big time against gambling, but not from a moral point of view. I hate to lose my money. Can you imagine what is going to happen to the price of silver when everyone catches on?

If you are right everybody is going to wish they had a bunch more, particulary if these rising interest rates cause banks to wobble again and we start to see the "Cypress" model expanded to other countries. I am not there yet, but I can't take my eyes off the financial news right now because if the Fed can't get these interest rates back on the tracks "insurance" could turn into OMG why didn't I buy more (although I've been wrong before which is why I try to stay diversified even though occassionally I wonder what exactly does diversified really mean in this crazy world?)...:popcorn:
 
Sunshine Rounds

Apmex has Sunshine rounds on their E-bay page for $22.50. Cow-a-bunga!
 
I wonder if the Royal Bank of India's moves to curb gold sales (increasing taxes) is sparking greater demand for silver now.
 
Time for this mayhem to reverse direction:
http://www.sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/silver…-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/

"The recent COMEX disclosures have revealed a staggering drop in the “Commercials” outstanding short positions, however – representing a decrease from 259 million ounces in February 2013 to 20 million ounces as of the last Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report released June 25th."
"This represents a significant change in the positioning of the silver futures market, and also suggests that previously ‘short’ participants have exited the “short silver” trade altogether. This drop actually represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces of ‘long’ silver contracts to cover the previously mentioned short positions, so despite silver’s price decline, the silver futures market has actually seen an abundance of buying."

"This represents a significant change in the positioning of the silver futures market, and also suggests that previously ‘short’ participants have exited the “short silver” trade altogether. This drop actually represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces of ‘long’ silver contracts to cover the previously mentioned short positions, so despite silver’s price decline, the silver futures market has actually seen an abundance of buying."

"...the ‘Commercials’ have reduced their net short gold position to 35,200 contracts. The ‘Commercials’ haven’t carried this low a net short position in Comex gold futures for more than 10 years. Could it be that the banks most active in shorting precious metals are preparing for gold and silver to start moving in the opposite direction?"
 
Silver is going up... not sure if it's a trend or just a short spike...
I checked my dealer and they already have crazy premiums on top. Like the know something is coming...

I just can't afford to buy anything at the moment. I hope prices go down just a bit.
 
I'm with Potemkin on this one. I sure could use some extra jack right about now, because I have a feeling we're going to see some real craziness in the metals soon. With JPM now net long on gold, [not sure what their position is in silver] a louder message could not be screamed.
 
I wish to see 18 $ silver again. But any figure under 20 $ would make it attractive to me...
 
Keep on dollar cost averaging and you don't need to fret about the spot price.
 
Spot is not, just ask my local guy. When I ask him what spot is running he looks at me and asks "Why"? His DCA is 25.50 and he adjusts premiums to properly reflect that when he sells silver.

I think the market has discovered the emperor is naked and they're scrambling like eggs in a pan to cover their collective asses, draining vaults around the world to fulfill contracts. What remains to be seen is how many are left standing when the music finally stops.
 
It's going up pretty strong. Will be interesting to see if it stays up.
 
Uh oh... Watch your cornholes (potential contrarian indicator!):

...
Lennox said the factors that helped spur silver's rally will continue to push the metal higher this year, and said it could hit highs of $30 to $35 before the end of the year.

Furthermore, silver's dramatic rally over the past week is bound to attract investor attention and help fuel further gains, added.

"There is one good way to get yourself on the radar, and that's to have a good price rally, all the speculators pick up on it and it then become self-feeding," he added.

IG's Shamu forecasts that silver will reach $24-25 an ounce in the short term, and highs of $28 by the end of the year.

"It looks like the trend in the short term for gold and silver is upwards they've broken through some key resistance levels," said Shamu.

Andrew Su, CEO of Compass Global Markets, said he expects silver to hit $25 over the next month on the back of a rally in gold and to surge to around $28 at some point in October, once Fed tapering has begun.
...

More: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100967380
 
...

My two current thoughts on silver:

1) IMO there is ample room on the upside in the short to medium term for silver. The industrial demand, if I understand correctly, will help ensure that. While silver has had a HELL of a hatchet job done on it over the decades to demonetize it, there is clearly value in silver as a PM as well. Two impetuses (word plural?) that should push silver up.

2) Be that as it may (point 1), the problem with buying a lot of silver is that your poor little boat will sink that much sooner with all the extra weight...
 
...

My two current thoughts on silver:

1) IMO there is ample room on the upside in the short to medium term for silver. The industrial demand, if I understand correctly, will help ensure that. While silver has had a HELL of a hatchet job done on it over the decades to demonetize it, there is clearly value in silver as a PM as well. Two impetuses (word plural?) that should push silver up.

2) Be that as it may (point 1), the problem with buying a lot of silver is that your poor little boat will sink that much sooner with all the extra weight...

and most folks think that "Jaws" (looks like we're gonna need a bigger boat) was about SHARKS.... :rotflmbo:
 
...
2) Be that as it may (point 1), the problem with buying a lot of silver is that your poor little boat will sink that much sooner with all the extra weight...

I wouldn't worry too much about the boats. Ancona's boat sank long ago and it was EMPTY. No one else here can afford a boat larger than a paper boat sailing in a teacup which, of course, means the silver is in the bottom of the teacup.:rotflmbo:
 
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