Silver Report 260502

May 2 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV1K ozt (0.00003t)
SLV724K
COMEX100K
SFE (Holiday)

COMEX withdrawals ended at ~139% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate~1,244d
COMEX [E] run rate ~1,062d
SFE run rate (as of Apr 30)
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

COMEX 4-30​

ozt

100K ozt (3.1t) from Loomis

moved between [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 314.5M ozt (80.8M [R], 233.7M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 125K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 80.8M / 65K = ~1,244 (working) days(~62.2 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (233.7M - 85.2M) / 125K = ~1,189 (working) days (59.4 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (233.7M / 2) / 125K = ~935 (working) days (46.8 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 1,062 (working) days (53.1 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,313
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 23,000,534.03

April withdrawals ended at ~139% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 100K ozt net withdrawal greatly shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the [R] run rate grew by 793 days! However, as I realized that there has been a shift in the COMEX drain dynamics in April with 100% of the drain coming from [E], I will now start tracking an [E] run rate as well.

Both [R] and [E] run rates are indicating a huge runway. This is IMO, very misleading as withdrawals have been uncharacteristically low as the April contract has ended. I expect withdrawals to accelerate now as deliveries against the May contract (and pressure from the LBMA) ramp up. The run rate estimates will shrink quickly as the 5 DMA withdrawal rate grows again.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.33% to 0.34%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:800K shares
JPM:724K ozt (22.5t)

London vault stock down to 398,445,376.6 ozt. It hasn't been this low since November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

PSLV​

30K units
1K ozt (0.00003t)
ozt/units ratio .3408

What a strange update. Grok tells me that the minimum number of units required for redeeming Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) units for physical silver is not a fixed number of units. It is defined as the number of units whose net asset value (NAV) is at least equivalent to the value of ten London Good Delivery (LGD) silver bars (ie. 10K ozt). Presently, that works out to about 30K units. Looks like someone wanted to redeem a basket of units for 10K ozt. But PSLV added what works out to 1 LGD bar (more or less).

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

SFE closed for holiday until May 8.