May 14 AM Silver Market
LBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened ~$87, climbed over $89, fell back and closed just above $87. It tread water overnight and is just under ~$87 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 07:12 : $86.98
May26 = -$0.17 vs +$0.27 Previously (spot @ 11:10 May 13 : $88.95)
Jun26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.41 (spot @ 06:44 : $86.95)
Jul26 = +$0.48 vs +$0.67
EFP Commentary
All EFP spreads shifted down (negatively). May26 EFP spread was negative as of it's last price quote yesterday morning. Is the COMEX-LBMA arb trade going to start up again?
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $99.22 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $80.92)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $96.99 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $81.28)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $96.25
IBJA PM spot : $93.29 (less 10% BCD duty = $83.96)
India raised their import duties yesterday. I think their markets are still adjusting (or finding their new equilibrium).
China
SGE $98.17
SFE $98.11
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.06
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May 14 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE
COMEX withdrawals remain ~24% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate
COMEX [E] run rate
SFE run rate
SGE run rate
COMEX 5-12
COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 313.2M ozt (80M [R], 233.2M [E])
Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 85K/day DEPOSIT
@ 52% [R], run rate =
@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (233.3M - 85.2M) / 318K =
@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (233.3M / 2) / 318K =
@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =
COMEX May26
May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,444
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 27,220,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 6,406,195.33
May withdrawals remain ~24% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Tuesday's 22K ozt net withdrawal posts as the 5 DMA withdrawal rate turns into a deposit rate (a 2M ozt withdrawal rolls out of the moving window). It looks like the firmly positive May26 EFP spread is curtailing withdrawals.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee fell from 0.41% to 0.40%
Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
JPM:
SLV posts a 3rd consecutive inflow. Is pressure mounting on the LBMA?
London vault stock (402.4M ozt) has bounced back well above the ~399M ozt threshold of the last two weeks.
We're approaching the middle of May. SLV is about due for the curious mid-month swap (likely on Friday the 15th).
PSLV
ozt/units ratio 0.33971
PSLV plays a bit more catch up with vault stock inflow to match recent units creation. They would need to add ~2.3M ozt more to bring the ozt/units ratio back to .3434 (and ~187K ozt to bring the ratio back to just .34).
SFE Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 28,196,080 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 573K/day deposit!
Run rate =
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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260513.8927/