Silver Report 260515

May 15 AM Silver Market​

SGE Spot $88.87 (~$10.50 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $87.82 ($1.05 SGE Spot)
LBMA Spot $78.86
COMEX May26 Futures $78.30 (EFP spread +$0.19)
IBJA PM Spot $78.51 (~$0.35 LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $75.90 (~$2.61 IBJA PM Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$87 and closed just above $83. It fell overnight and is just under ~$79 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:46 : $78.86

May26 = +$0.19 vs -$0.17 Previously (spot @ 04:26 : $78.11)
Jun26 = +$0.34 vs +$0.14 (spot @ 06:36 : $78.27)
Jul26 = +$0.30 vs +$0.48

EFP Commentary​

All EFP spreads are positive this morning. May26 EFP spread seems volatile lately swinging back and forth around +/-$0.20.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.99 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $75.84)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $90.57 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $75.90)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $89.63
IBJA PM spot : $87.23 (less 10% BCD duty = $78.51)

India raised their import duties recently. I think their markets are still adjusting (or finding their new equilibrium).

China ​

SGE $88.87(no VAT)
SFE $87.82

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10.50
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$1.05

~~~

May 15 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV301K
SLV1.9M
COMEX1.9M
SFE680K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~26% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate
COMEX [E] run rate
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 8)

COMEX 5-13​

1.7M ozt (53.5t) in Asahi (602K), CNT (600K), Delaware (15K), StoneX (501K [R])

714K ozt (22.2t) from StoneX

44K ozt (1.4t) moved from [R] and [E] in Brinks

922K ozt (28.7t) adjusted into existence in Asahi

3.6 ozt (0.0001t) adjusted out of existence in JPM

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.1M ozt (80.4M [R], 234.7M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 470K/day DEPOSIT

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,473
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 27,365,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 7,120,588.89

May withdrawals are now ~26% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 1.9M ozt net deposit (plus alchemy) grows the 5 DMA deposit rate. The deposit masked a rather large withdrawal in spite of the May26 EFP spread being firmly positive (on Wednesday). The May26 EFP spread was negative yesterday - will withdrawals pick up again?

Looks like bullion bank shadow inventory has been fully activated.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.40% to 0.39%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.1M shares
JPM:1.9M ozt (59.1t)

SLV posts a 4th consecutive inflow. Is pressure mounting on the LBMA?

London vault stock (404.3M ozt) has bounced back well above the ~399M ozt threshold of the last two weeks.

SLV is due for the curious mid-month swap today. Will JPM add another 3M ozt to the London vault stock today?

PSLV​

units
301K ozt (9.4t)
ozt/units ratio 0.34018

PSLV plays a bit more catch up with vault stock inflow to match recent units creation. They would need to add ~2M ozt more to bring the ozt/units ratio back to .3434, but they did manage to bring the ratio back to 0.34.

SFE Run Rate​

680K ozt (21.2t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 28,876,100 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 551K/day deposit!

Run rate =

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260514.8930/

I know that the 398 Million or so shares for SLV was the low.... what was they typical or high for shares outstanding?

398M was vault stock. That equates to ~534M shares.

Some context (Date: Shares | ozt):

Oct 1: 553,900,000 | 399,750,502.20
Nov 3: 538,050,000 | 385,188,406.90
Dec 1: 560,000,000 | 407,887,562.60
Jan 2: 582,950,000 | 431,521,192.80
Feb 2: 586,800,000 | 437,816,422.40
Mar 2: 564,200,000 | 420,099,937.10
Apr 1: 542,000,000 | 402,820,513.70

Max (Oct=May)
Dec 22: 588,450,000 | 436,507,602.10

Min (Oct-May)
May 1-May4: 534,100,000 | 398,445,376.60
Nov 7-Nov 12: 534,700,000 | 381,935,241.10

All ozt totals are London vault only (not including NYC vault)

So only 50 million ounces to slosh around... Not a ton but could be quite important in the margin.

When SLV drains ozt, the ounces go into LBMA free float vault stock. That vault stock can (and has been) sold to meet demand from China, India et al. How much is a available for SLV to add back is the question. 1mo lease rate going up indicates it isn't much.