Maybe the Morgue finally gets crushed?
Bold is mine:
Bold is mine:
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While technicals are turning bullish for silver, Daniel Ghali, senior commodity analyst at TD Securities, said he expects fundamental factors will create a long-term uptrend for the white metal.
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“Silver markets may be set up as the most exciting trade in the energy transition theme across the entire commodities complex today,” Ghali said in his latest research note. “The energy transition is this decade's investment zeitgeist, and implications for silver are often overlooked.”
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Ghali noted that this growth in demand and significant underinvestment in mine supply has created a “universally-recognized structural deficit.” Ghali added that this fundamental imbalance has been largely ignored as markets have focused on massive above-ground stocks instead.
However, Ghali said markets have misjudged just how much silver is available, and this depleted reserve will squeeze prices higher.
“For many years, market participants could safely assume that the behemoth stockpile of above-ground silver would be sufficiently large to satisfy any reasonable scale of demand growth,” Ghali said. “Today, we believe this assumption could potentially be challenged within the next 12-24 months.”
Ghali said that industrial demand, driven by the green energy transition, has completely transformed the silver market. He noted that in 2019, there were expectations that it would take about 165 years to deplete the stockpile of silver.
Ghali said his new two-year target could be accelerated if investors jump back into the market.
“The potential ETF buying activity associated with a typical Fed cutting cycle could dramatically shorten this time span. This poses a significant liquidity risk for silver markets, and makes a legitimate case for a potential #silversqueeze on the horizon,” he said. “Pressure release valves could eventually help the missing silver make its way back to markets, but necessitate higher prices in order to do so. This is an extreme upside convexity trade that is severely underpriced.”
What!?He noted that in 2019, there were expectations that it would take about 165 years to deplete the stockpile of silver.
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In 1 single month - February - India imported 7-8% of 2023 global production.
On an annual basis India is importing the whole 2023 global production.
That doesn't make any sense.
I have no idea where this amount of silver is coming from
India's silver imports surged by 260% in February to a record high, as lower duties encouraged large purchases from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), government and industry officials told Reuters, adding they were on track to increase by 66% this year.
Higher demand in India, the world's biggest silver consumer, could support global prices trading near their highest in three years.
India imported a record 2,295 metric tons of silver in February, up from 637 tons in January, said a government official, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to talk to the media.
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Chirag Thakkar, CEO of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer, said the industry had replenished stocks in January and February after having depleted them in 2023.
"Indian imports are cyclical in nature. In one year, imports may be very high, and then the following year they may fall. Since imports fell in 2023 after record buying in 2022, we can expect imports to pick up in 2024," Thakkar said.
India's imports could rise to 6,000 tons in 2024, from last year's 3,625 tons, driven by robust demand from the fabrication and solar industries, he said.
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Because he's a DS stooge ..
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If prices stay higher than a lot of silver will come back on the market from private investors.
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It will also be more profitable to mine the lower grades that have been bypassed for the higher grade stuff in the last few years. I have no idea how that affects mine output overall worldwide but it should be considerable.
... You can now buy and sell a symbol that is backed by nothing and run it up to over 70k. ...
This guy seems to contradict with a lot of the silver bugs keep saying about supply shortages…
For yet another year and the third in a row now, silver demand massively exceeded supply in 2023. While the global market deficit fell by 30% y/y from last year’s likely all-time-high, at 184.3Moz (5,732t) it was still one of the largest figures on record. ...
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Importantly, we remain confident that such deficit conditions will remain in place for the foreseeable future. As we discuss in detail in Chapter 2, our projections for 2024 see the gap between supply and demand grow by 17% ...
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Jeff Christian was the main counterparty to A. Maguire and GATA
Jeffrey Christian, managing director of metals consultancy CPM Group, today spent 16 minutes on YouTube raising and knocking down some straw men to give his viewers the misleading impression that there is nothing to be doubted about the U.S. government's involvement with the gold market.
Christian challenged long-made but usually anonymous assertions that the U.S. gold reserve at Fort Knox, Kentucky, is gone or missing in large part. He notes that there are official audits asserting that all the gold is where it should be. Those who cast doubt on the integrity of the audits, Christian says, are "scum."
But contrary to Christian's suggestion, the big question about U.S. gold reserve is not the narrow one of whether there's still metal at Fort Knox but whether the U.S. government has foreign gold obligations and whether these obligations are so large that U.S. gold reserves at Fort Knox and elsewhere are potentially impaired by multiple claims of ownership.
In this respect the curiosity of a more candid and honest analyst ...
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According to data provided by Metal Focus, a London head quartered bullion research firm, India has imported 3,730 tonnes of silver in the first three months of 2024 ...
... and no exportLooks like India imported roughly 1500 tons of silver in both February and March.
The International Financial Services Centre Authority (IFSCA) by a recent circular enabled IFSC-based entities to supply bullion on the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX) as ‘Qualified Suppliers IFSC’ (QS-IFSCs). This is aimed at widening the pool of suppliers and increasing participation in the bullion market.
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“At present, unless a QS-IFSC is also a bullion trading member, they can only participate in IIBX as a client through a bullion trading member. This becomes cumbersome for foreign suppliers who have non-banking operations in the IFSC. By allowing IFSC-based entities to supply bullion on the IIBX, the market can attract a wider range of suppliers and investors. This will lead to increased trading volumes and better price discovery,” said a bullion industry source.
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Gujarat’s silver imports once again touched a record high of 1,561.84 metric tonnes (MT) in the 2023-24 financial year. However, about 77% of the total silver imports — about 1,206 MT — took place from Jan to March.
Notably, this is just after the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX) began with silver trading. ...
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Silver has a dual character, valued both for its uses as a financial asset and an industrial input, including clean-energy technologies. The metal is a key ingredient in solar panels, and with robust growth in that industry, usage of the metal is expected to reach a record this year, according to the Silver Institute. Against that backdrop, the market is headed for a fourth year in deficit, with this year’s shortage seen as the second biggest on record.
That’s led industrial users — which typically rely on miners for supply — to seek ounces by draining the world’s major inventories, according to Silver Bullion’s Gregersen. Stockpiles tracked by the London Bullion Market Association fell to the second-lowest level on record in April, while the volumes at exchanges in New York and Shanghai are near seasonal lows.
Over the next two years, the LBMA stockpiles may be depleted given the current pace of demand, according to TD Securities. The headline figure overstates the available volume of metal given that it includes exchange-traded fund holdings, Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist, said in an April note.
“We are slowly going to see supplies tightening because industrial demand is set to go higher,” Gregersen said. “If investors are also starting to buy, then I think in two or three months’ time, my biggest problem might end up being ‘Where do I find supply?’ rather than ‘How do I sell the silver?’”
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“There is a notable risk of some 'reflexivity' in this thesis, as the break north of $30/oz could plausibly catalyze a substantial amount of ETF buying activity which could further erode 'free-floating' inventories on the LBMA. After all, the last viral #silversqueeze meme catalyzed approximately 110m oz of silver demand in ETFs in a few days, which would represent a -35% erosion in the free float if repeated today.
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The two charts below reveal something peculiar happening according to LBMA data. The latest daily average of silver volume transfers into the vaults and managed by the Clearing has been reported at 292 million ounces against an average daily value of $7bn, indicating the latest daily average clearing price for silver is ~$24.
There is a small problem here. According to LBMA’s own silver fixing price, the latest value was $31.56, and the last time silver traded at $24 was… three months ago according to their own fixing price.
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June 1 (King World News) – The information below was sent to King World News by one of our global readers from Norway who has traded Sprott’s 100% physically backed gold and silver for many years. He can now only place sell orders for Sprott’s PSLV & PHYS gold and silver funds.
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There's obviously a shortage of 1000 ounce bars and they're afraid of a naked short squeeze on the COMEX. Factor in this latest paper silver slam and imagine the short position held by 3 or 4 banks and one can see the danger of a default. The COMEX has already raised margin requirements, twice I believe so the danger is real. SLV is already serving as a commodity pool but even that is only a lease operation that magnifies an already steepening loss profile. I wouldn't be surprised to see massive orders out of India and China on this latest slam.
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