#silversqueeze

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In a silver squeeze shouldn't the price of silver being going up hugely? Where's the limit up days? If we limit up for a week we could be at 100. Limit up for 2 weeks takes us to 300. Roughly, just doing calculations in my head of roughly 20% a day.

I also though Ravi said plenty of silver at Comex but LBMA was busted. However the eta's are still holding the 800 million I though LBMA had. So what's the deal with the ETF's? I know you and I cant access the silver but bullion banks can. So if JPM says I need 300 million ounces they can get them. I assume that's only for silver they already own and have in the ETF's or am I missing something there and they can have anything the ETF's are holding?

Sounds like scottsdale had a run on their products since they are the ones that keep saying retail demand is very high and premiums will be going up. However I check SD prices and inventory daily and not seeing the same demand there. This week saw 8) 100 ounce bars go out and 0 1000's. It is possible they took in 100 100 ounce bars and sold 108 but no way for me to know that by looking at their inventory. I dont bother looking at the small stuff. I'm sure that moves in and out much faster than the big stuff but a run on the big stuff would signify that big players are buying.
 
thoughts i am pondering on currently

I expect to see some intresting things on monday....they now have the wkend to put together backroom deals to try to control the situation .......will be intresting to see

one of the components is silver lease rates going so high........i am not sure where they lease the silver from ...etf's ?

they were able to break the hunt brothers.........going to be harder to break India etc that are standing for delivery

i was extremely suprized to see the refiner move to stop buying certain items.....must mean the refiners backlog is so long they are not willing to take the risk of price movement of silver or are not able to hedge their cost of silver while it sits waiting to be refined (i hold a lot of junk silver so this is significant to me)

systemic stress reveals things unheard of before....very interesting times we live in
 
Very interesting times indeed.
My main concern is that bankers are thieves. They write laws for themselves to exploit that no-one else can. If I thought SLV was just going to squeeze and limit up from here I would load up on call options and when all is said and done I could buy Cuba and have the entire island rolling cigars for me. :lmao:
 
Cigarlover said:
In a silver squeeze shouldn't the price of silver being going up hugely? ...
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We are still in the beginning stages of the paper market stress. London (the LBMA) has run dry of free float (available) silver, but the COMEX still has plenty. The huge ~ -$3 EFP spread right now is likely to encourage bullion banks to send some COMEX metal back to London if the USA government doesn't tell them not to (because it's now a critical mineral and we're gonna need it).

It's hard to tell what China is doing currently as they were closed for a week and we don't have good vault flow data yet. All the news from India indicates they are still buying like gangbusters.

The paper derivative markets will be overwhelmed eventually. We're just getting started.
 
From what I recall if silver is squeezed too much then traders will be allowed to exit their positions with cash.

That usually pokes a pretty big whole in any silver squeeze.
 
Cigarlover said:
Not with the topping tail I am seeing and the huge volume on this sell off. I could be wrong and often am but this looks like a reversal to me. If it recovers tonight with the selloff we have had today then it would be the biggest double reversal I have ever seen.
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Looks like I was wrong again. The action tonight is negating that topping tail. I've never seen anything so bullish where standard T&A no longer applies. Truly amazing.
 
Cigarlover said:
Looks like I was wrong again. The action tonight is negating that topping tail. I've never seen anything so bullish where standard T&A no longer applies. Truly amazing.
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gotta remember we are old guys that have seen ups n downs for decades and set in our thinking ....we may have to readjust our perceptions.....i have to admit this backwardation and the lack of refinery capacity is a bit perplexing ......... i remember in 1980 junk silver was melted by the litteral truck loads coin shops had trucks that were backed up the back door that would drive to refinerys daily.....i can only surmise the refinery capacities have been degraded over time as this is no where near the 1980 retail sell bubble

it sure seems like foreign physical demand is overwhelming the paper traders

this seems like foreigners holding us$ trading them in for real assetts to me
 
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For decades, there has been a stockpile of silver in London that has allowed bullion banks to play the COMEX short - LBMA long EFP spread trade with near impunity. The LBMA's "silver ocean" has finally been drained though and now we're seeing the lack of physical metal affecting spot and lease rates in London and wild drawdowns on COMEX silver stock in a non-delivery month as the EFP spread trade is now broken. We are still at the beginning stages of a real, physical silversqueeze. This is a fundamental shift in the underlying market that is swamping the paper trades. Technical analysis (TA) on price charts relies upon a model of market function that no longer is completely valid.
 
Good read:
Wholesale overall is a total calamity. We’re now in a situation where people don’t really have any clue how to quote spot. There is a massive dislocation between future pricing and spot pricing, which at times has been over $2.50 below spot. Selling back metal right now is moving toward future pricing. There’s a lot at play here regarding why this is happening, and some of it is quite sophisticated, involving financing and repo agreements.
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Another factor contributing to the price dislocation is that there hasn’t been enough demand on the buy side to move through the backlog of customers who sold retail metal earlier in the year. The largest refiners are still backed up with 3-4 month delays and are being very selective about their intakes. A number of refiners have stopped taking in 90% and Sterling because it takes more time and is more costly to process. These materials generate more by-product and are not as easy as other products to convert into exchange-deliverable bars.

Over the last 4-6 weeks, retail buy-side demand has increased significantly. If silver continues to move up past $50, it’s not out of the question that the situation could completely reverse, with products like 90% silver going from an abundance to a shortage. It’s always quite amazing to see this “on the inside” as a major bullion dealer. Retail demand can overwhelm the retail product system very quickly, especially with smaller inventory stockpiles due to higher lease rates.
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More:
www.tfmetalsreport.com

Bullion Market Update from Dr. Tyler Wall of SD Bullion

As the new week begins, the craziness of the silver market continues. Late last week, I had reached out to our good friend Tyler Wall, CEO of SD Bullion, and asked him for any guidance and commentary he could provide. Below is what he sent over late Sunday after a very busy weekend at SDB. SD
www.tfmetalsreport.com www.tfmetalsreport.com
 
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Cigarlover said:
Regardless of what happens next week, this is a week for celebration. We broke 50 and held. :cheers:. I have 1 Cohiba Esplendido left from 2020 so that will get burned today and then possibly a novedoso or Pyramid extra from the same year. Thats my celebration.
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Serious question here. Are Cuban cigars really superior to cigars rolled from Cuban seeds grown in Nicaragua or Honduras? Similar climates, but I suppose the soil composition could vary.
 
I was a little taken aback by the Futures changes today. I guess I mostly watch the spot price and the ratio. I guess that +$1.50 on spot plus the spread coming in ~$1.50 does add to $3 but still.

The interesting thing is this ALSO getting much closer to backwardation. So they probably flew some in but now both markets are nearing big problems.

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CiscoKid said:
Serious question here. Are Cuban cigars really superior to cigars rolled from Cuban seeds grown in Nicaragua or Honduras? Similar climates, but I suppose the soil composition could vary.
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Thats a tough question to answer . I mean for me there is no comparison. Cubans are by far the best there is in regards to flavor profile. Others who haven't had many Cubans will disagree and say the other islands produce better cigars. The big problems with Cubans right now are the cost and the confiscation rates by customs. Not worth the risk anymore. Before 2020 when a box of good cubans was 250 or so it was worth the risk. Now with prices where they are it sucks to get something confiscated.
Cubans have always had some construction issues with certain vitals as well. Many lonsdales used to be plugged so in a box you might end up with 3 out of 25 that weren't smokable. Again, not an issue when they were 250-400 a box. Now with many of them going for over 2k it gets expensive to throw them away.

For domestic cigars as I like to call them, there are some good ones. Much better than 20 years ago. I have tried a bunch and there are a few I like. Tatuaje and Curivari and Dunbarton make some good cigars. Curivari even has a few that are very similar to Cuban so whatever they are doing they are mimicking the cuban process and getting that Cuban flavor and what I call "Twang" in a couple of the cigars they produce. That "twang" I refer to is a characteristic of cubans. Leave like a citrus bite on your lips and palette. The flavors also coats the mouth much better than domestics.

I suspect it has something to do with how the Cubans process the tobacco. Sure the soil may be slightly different but not so much that it causes the massive difference in flavors and of course that twang. I'm pretty sure it has something to do with the curing process. Domestic cigars are ready to smoke as soon as you buy them. Cubans need several years of aging before they begin to reach their full potential.
They are ok fresh but the Esplendido I had over the weekend with 5 years of age on it was amazing. Took 4 years to start getting that good and the finish has like a vanilla honey custard to the flavor profile. Almost like eating vanilla pudding it is so good. Unfortunately it was my last one from 2020. The rest that I have are from 2023. Not ready for another couple years. I have some 55 anniversaries as well. 500 a cigar which is insane. Not even remotely close to being worth that much money. I have 14 left and the one I did smoke was ok. It was fresh and you can tell it will be an excellent cigar in the future but no mattes what I cant imagine it ever being worth 500 bucks. Of course I didn't pay that for mine.

Anyway, that's the lowdown on cigars. Personal preference and nowadays, it helps to have connections in Cuba or in the industry down there. The custom rolls are the best deal left down there. Still reasonably priced compared to regular production.
 
PAY ATEENTION! :

They are trying to confuse us with silver backwardation and KITCO spot price vs. COMEX futures price. We are looking for true price discovery which means it's NORTH of $50, way north. There is something going on globally and it's not being reported. Journalists missed another story.
 
nickndfl said:
... There is something going on globally and it's not being reported. Journalists missed another story.
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It's simple really and I've been talking about it for weeks. The LBMA liquid free float has run dry and the paper markets are breaking down.
 
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I am on a email list from one of the Major Market makers in Precious Metals. This was mass-emailed yesterday to all dealers:
Regards
Dan


Dear Dealers,

We’re operating in one of the most exciting and unprecedented environments the precious metals industry has ever seen. Gold and silver prices are at all-time highs, and new investor demand across all categories has strengthened in recent weeks, while strong liquidations continue from other investors. These markets bring opportunity, but they also create new challenges that we want to communicate clearly and proactively. I want to take a moment to explain what’s happening, what it means for you, and how we’re managing through it.
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Silver is in Deep Backwardation

Silver has moved into deep backwardation, meaning the spot price (XAG/USD) for immediate delivery is now trading significantly higher than front-month futures prices (SI) for later delivery.

Under normal conditions, the opposite is true — that’s called contango, when futures prices are higher than spot because of the cost of carry (storage, financing, and insurance). In backwardation, the market inverts because participants are paying a premium for metal today rather than later. Backwardation creates an increased carrying cost for market participants holding physical inventory and a short hedge position.

It’s important to understand that the U.S. retail bullion investor supply or demand doesn’t meaningfully impact this price dislocation. The main drivers are industrial users, institutional participants, and global wholesale buyers — entities that need large quantities of physical silver for immediate delivery into production, manufacturing, or exchange-deliverable settlement.

This demand dynamic is very different from the behavior of the U.S. investor buying bullion coins or bars. It’s this large-scale, logistics-intensive demand that is currently pulling metal out of the system and driving the deep backwardation we’re seeing.
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Why This Is Happening

This isn’t a shortage of silver — it’s a mismatch of form and location.

  • Refinery Capacity:
North American refineries are operating at full capacity, and many other refineries around the globe are now approaching their throughput limits. This means it takes significantly longer for secondary and recycled silver to be refined into exchange-deliverable form — the specific formats required for settlement (such as LBMA or COMEX-approved bars).
  • Deliverable vs. Exchange-Deliverable:
There is plenty of “deliverable” silver in the broader sense — coins, bars, industrial scrap, doré, and other forms — but not enough exchange-deliverable silver ready to meet immediate delivery obligations. The bottleneck lies in converting this metal into the proper form to ultimately convert that silver to cash, which ties up capital, extends cycle times, and adds financing costs throughout the system.
  • Wider Spreads and Higher Carry Costs:
These inefficiencies are causing significantly wider spreads in spot prices and product premiums across regions and product categories. Dealers should expect this environment of wider spreads to persist — it’s a direct reflection of global market disruption and may continue until refining and logistics constraints ease. Spreads and liquidity will be volatile over the coming weeks and months until the supply chain normalizes and markets find equilibrium.
  • PGMs:
PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) have also been in backwardation, though not currently as severe as silver’s. This can change at any time.
  • Gold:
Gold is not currently showing the same signs of backwardation, but market dynamics can change rapidly. The same supply chain constraints and financing costs could begin to affect gold at any time.

Operational Expectations from Upstate

  • Processing Times:
Due to ongoing labor constraints and record order volumes, purchase orders may take several days to process. Current processing times are exceeding our target service commitments. However, our team is working overtime, and we’re hiring and training additional staff across all departments to expand capacity and restore faster turnaround times.
  • Purchase Order Expectations:
We require immediate delivery of all POs once issued. While we may not be able to process them immediately upon receipt, timely delivery from your side is critical. POs are processed strictly in the order they are received. In deep backwardation, the cost of holding open hedge positions becomes substantial. The longer a PO remains undelivered, the higher the hedge cost — and these costs are not built into our current spreads.
  • Limited Depth:
As our stock levels increase in certain products where supply outpaces demand and throughput through refining is throttled, our bid prices may become dislocated, or we may be unable to make a bid altogether.
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Market Volatility and Conditions Ahead

Markets have and will continue to change rapidly. Beyond just price volatility, terms, conditions, and availability can also shift quickly as liquidity tightens and costs fluctuate.

It’s realistic to expect that things may get worse before they get better. The market will normalize at some point — but there is no clear timeframe for when that will occur. We appreciate your understanding as we navigate this unique market, and we will strive to return to a normalized, efficient system as soon as market forces allow.

Our Financial Strength and Commitment

Please know that our company remains in a position of exceptional financial strength, liquidity, and sophistication. We have the capital, systems, and risk management expertise to navigate these markets with precision and confidence. We’ve invested heavily over the years in technology, infrastructure, hedging capabilities, and leadership talent to ensure that — even in times like these — we can continue to provide stability, integrity, and reliability to our dealer network. You can trust that we are managing this environment with the highest level of professionalism and care.

These are extraordinary times — full of both challenge and opportunity. We want to thank every one of our dealers for your partnership, communication, and patience as we all work through the current market dynamics. Our commitment to you is unwavering: to remain transparent, dependable, and proactive as we continue to operate in one of the most dynamic precious metals markets in modern history.
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Cigarlover said:
Very interesting times indeed.
My main concern is that bankers are thieves. They write laws for themselves to exploit that no-one else can. If I thought SLV was just going to squeeze and limit up from here I would load up on call options and when all is said and done I could buy Cuba and have the entire island rolling cigars for me. :lmao:
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You better be clear in what you mean.

 
Monument Metals owes me a slew of Silver Eagles and they have emailed to inform that there will be shipping delays as they try to source the Eagles from the wholesale market. :paperbag:
 
pmbug said:
Monument Metals owes me a slew of Silver Eagles and they have emailed to inform that there will be shipping delays as they try to source the Eagles from the wholesale market. :paperbag:
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I heard the 2025's premium is going way up since the mint quit producing for the year. Hopefully they deliver and don't cancel the order.
 
ETFs stopped taking investor funds while they are trying to source physical silver. They are still buying physical in London.
 
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