For years, SLV had consistently maintained 103.2M ozt silver in their NYC vault. That changed late last year. For the last 5 months, once per month - around the middle of the month, SLV has drained 3M ozt (~93.3t) from it's NYC vault (in ozt):
Nov20 London
Nov20 NYC
Shares
Dec16 London
Dec16 NYC
Shares
Jan16 London
Jan16 NYC
Shares
Feb19 London
Feb19 NYC
Shares
Mar16 London
Mar16 NYC
Shares
In November, January and March, the NYC vault drain was offset completely by a corresponding increase in the London vault. These events look like JPM doing a NYC-London swap. Ie. JPM traded SLV's NYC silver in their COMEX [E]ligible vault to some actor in London (possibly even JPM itself) for silver in London which could be deposited into the SLV London vault/account. These events all occurred on days where SLV increased shares (which require deposits of silver into the SLV vaults).
In December, the NYC vault drain was only partially offset by a corresponding increase in the London vault. This occurred on a day where SLV decreased shares. The London offset was sufficient to make up the difference from what looks to be a planned/scheduled 3M ozt drain of NYC stock.
February stands out as a month where the NYC vault drain had no offset at all in the London vault. SLV posted a large decrease in shares that required a larger than 3M ozt drain.
Observations:
Speculation
The big question is, "why?". Why is JPM swapping 3M ozt of SLV's NYC silver for silver in London?
I can think of a few possibilities:
JPM initiated these monthly NYC drains in the aftermath of LBMA silver market seizing up in October because their liquid free float had essentially bottomed out. Silver supply in London was very tight. Elevated lease rates have continued to signal that, while the LBMA's liquid free float is greater than zero, it's not by much - there is still tightness in London. Swapping 3M ozt of NYC silver for London silver allows JPM to source 3M ozt of silver for SLV in the LBMA vault system without having to buy it. As SLV's London vault is the largest slush fund that provides emergency liquidity to the LBMA silver market, JPM prefers to maintain a larger share of SLV vault stock in London.
When the first swap was effected on November 20, JPM COMEX vaults held:
[R]egistered = 30.3M ozt
[E]ligible = 169.3M - 103.2M SLV = 66.1M ozt
JPM's [E] stock (less SLV) was roughly 1/3 of the total COMEX [E] stock. They had (and still have) plenty of [E] stock. It seems unlikely that JPM is effecting these swaps in order to shore up an already massive [E] stock.
Today (five months later), JPM COMEX vaults hold:
[R]egistered = 12M ozt
[E]ligible = 138.1M - 88.2M SLV = 49.9M ozt
Did JPM foresee the need to drain SLV's NYC vault to support COMEX trading over the last few months? Without the monthly SLV 3M drain, JPM's [E] vault would have 34.9M ozt presently. That's still quite a lot - it would be the 3rd largest in the COMEX system behind Brinks and Asahi instead of currently being second behind Brinks.
I checked the COMEX silver stock reports for JPM [E]ligible adjustments to [R] from one day prior to two days after each NYC drain event. There were no JPM adjustments from [E] to [R].
I checked the COMEX silver stock reports for JPM [E]ligible withdrawals from one day prior to two days after each NYC drain event:
Nov19
Nov20
Nov21
Nov24
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Jan15
Jan16
Jan20
Jan21
Feb18
Feb19
Feb20
Feb23
Mar13
Mar16
As JPM is the whale vault in the COMEX system, their vault regularly moves from 600K to 2M ozt in a day. It's very difficult to determine if the 3M NYC SLV drain contributed to any additional withdrawals (presumably for shipment to London). It seems to me this reason is plausible but unprovable.